965
FXUS64 KAMA 040527
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the northwest Panhandles
today. There is a low chance that they could be severe if they
occur.

Hot >100 degree temperatures are expected Wednesday through Friday
across the combined Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

High pressure will continue to amplify over the southern AZ/NM area
and will gradually track northeast as it attempts to center over the
Panhandles mid week.  As a result of this amplifying high, we will
still be in somewhat of a northwest flow on Monday, and some high
resolution models as well as the CAMs are suggesting that we might
get a round of storms tracking from the northwest Panhandles down to
the southeast on Monday afternoon and evening.  This is likely due
to a perturbation riding along that northwest flow. And with the
ample moisture available as well as increased heating form the
building high, afternoon storms developing and tracking along that
wave doesn`t seem that unreasonable.

As we move into Tuesday, the high will shift further east over
central to eastern NM and that will result in widespread mid to
upper 90s across the Panhandles, with possibly some hot spots
hitting 100, like Palo Duro Canyon.  Given the low level moisture,
especially in the east, it looks like we could have some heat index
values above the temperature on Tuesday.  Currently not confident
enough that it would warrant a Heat Advisory, but it can`t be ruled
out.  Storms dont look to be an issue on Tuesday, but will not rule
out any summer time pop up storm.  And as we move into Tuesday
night things looks pretty quiet.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Strong high pressure will set up over the Panhandles by the mid
week with 850mb temps approaching mid 30s for multiple days. As a
result widespread 100 degree temperatures are expected across the
Panhandles at least through Friday. Some warmer areas look to
break 105 and will likely (>60% chance) need heat products. These
are your typical hot spots like Palo Duro Canyon, and areas along
the Canadian River Valley. All areas are certainly on the table
for these hot temperatures. Given the ample low level moisture,
we could have daily pop up storms, and depending on where they
pop, the cloud cover from building storms could impact the high
temperature. But still practice proper heat safety for mid to late
this week.

Saturday through Sunday night an upper level disturbance moving
across southern Canada will help break down the ridge of high
pressure and start to bring cooler temperatures with better chances
of showers and storms again to the Panhandles.  At this time the
severe threat looks to be low, but will not completely rule out the
possibility.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

No major changes with the new 06Z TAF package.

VFR conditions prevail at all sites for the next 24 hours. Surface
winds will become breezy this afternoon, and the wind direction
will shift from southeast to east through the evening. Winds
speeds between 10-15 kts have a chance to continue overnight and
until the end of the TAF period.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...55