Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
702 FXUS64 KAMA 131811 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 111 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Panhandles in multiple rounds through Tuesday afternoon - Breezy conditions are set to return Wednesday and Thursday && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 As anticipated, the majority of precipitation has initially been kept across the east-southeastern Panhandles this morning and afternoon, producing mostly light rain with the exception of a few locations receiving higher totals of a few tenths. Also as anticipated, the cold front has ushered in quite a stout dry low- level airmass to the western Panhandles (30s & 40s dew pts), which will be quite difficult to overcome till later in the evening- overnight hours when better synoptic support arrives. Consequently, there is increasing likelihood that the arrival timing of this moisture and lift will be unfavorable for much of the central to southwestern Panhandles to receive the main rounds of rain forecast to unfold later, contrary to previous expectations. The current scenario unfolding actually favors the northwest Panhandles to see some of the best rainfall tonight into tomorrow once the upper level jet streak and strong mid-level theta-e advection arrive (a potential scenario depicted by some models and mentioned in discussions a couple days ago). This region was previously favored to receive some of the lightest rain totals, but with the upper level sources of lift staying situated across the north-northwestern CWA, showers and storms could even linger later into Tuesday afternoon as indicated by a few CAMs. As previously alluded to, that would leave central portions of the forecast area (including Amarillo) with far more scattered activity and generally lighter rain, sandwiched between areas more moderate widespread rain. That doesn`t mean precip chances are completely negated for these areas though. In fact, with the strong influx of moisture set to filter in later today-tonight, it would be surprising not to see a few showers or a weak storm pop up. New trends simply suggest that precipitation should be more spotty here, with higher rain accumulations harder to come by outside of the main precip shields across the northwest and eastern Panhandles. Dry air gradually filters in Tuesday night in to Wednesday, shutting off precipitation potential. Southwest flow aloft and warming 850mb temps support highs in the 70s to low 80s tomorrow, with lows in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 We hope you like the Panhandle breeze because it has a high likelihood of returning Wed and Thu afternoons. Latest global model trends have maintained southwest flow aloft over the region mid to late week, as an area of large-scale ridging is now favored to remain suppressed to our south. This pattern will help spur lee cyclogenesis, placing a tighter pressure gradient over the Plains. Expect south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph as a result. Temperatures are progged to settle in the 70s and 80s through the weekend into next week, which is closer to normal for this time of year, but still above average. Long range guidance show a large positively tilted trough traversing over the Panhandles by late week into the weekend, but moisture appears to be limited by that time, keeping POPs below 15% each day of the long term. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Low cloud decks are expected to linger throughout the period, ranging from VFR to IFR at times. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible near the terminals mainly later this evening into the overnight hours, with lower confidence in additional development Tuesday morning. Best chances for showers exist near KDHT and KGUY during this time frame, with more hit or miss activity near KAMA. Winds will gradually shift to more southerly through the period at 4-15 kts. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38