859
FXUS64 KAMA 281133
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Rain showers remain across eastern Beaver and Lipscomb counties
but are quickly moving east of the CWA. This should be the last of
the rain activity for the rest of this morning. More notable is
the development of low clouds and patchy fog for mainly Texas and
Cimarron counties. Model guidance is really struggling to pick up
on the fog and low visibilities. Guymon has dropped down to a half
mile visibility at the time of this writing so be sure to drive
with caution across the above mentioned areas this morning as
visibility can rapidly change. The fog should begin to dissipate
over the next few hours as the sun rises.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely (generally 60% to 80% chance)
across the Panhandles on Friday night and Saturday night. There is a
low chance for flash flooding on both nights, but the chances look
slightly greater on Friday night.

- There is a low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm across
  the western combined Panhandles Friday night. Large hail and
  damaging winds are the primary hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

An upper-level ridge will be present over the High Plains today, but
a cold front will be moving through the Panhandles throughout the
day. However, latest model guidance still disagrees to some degree
regarding the speed of the front and how much cool air will
immediately follow the front which introduces some uncertainty in
the high temperature forecast. Leaning toward the cooler/quicker
cold frontal solutions given the local tendency and that the CAMs do
tend to handle these situations better, have lowered today`s highs
which mostly affects the northern and central Panhandles.

A few showers and thunderstorms could develop in the higher terrain
of New Mexico and moving into the northwestern combined Panhandles
in the afternoon and evening hours, but confidence is low at this
time (10-20% chance). Similarly, a few showers and thunderstorms
could develop in the southeastern Texas Panhandle Thursday afternoon
but confidence is just as low. For the first time in a while,
Thursday night should be dry across most of the Panhandles.

As the surface high associated with Thursday`s cold front moves off
to the east, surface winds will gradually turn to northeasterly then
southeasterly across the area. Clouds will likely persist through
the morning hours then clear from south to north throughout the day.
Similar to today, high temperatures may need to be adjusted downward
as there is the potential for temperatures to not recover as quickly
as depicted by model guidance in this post-frontal airmass.

A ridge-topping shortwave trough is expected to move from north-
central New Mexico/south-central Colorado toward the Panhandles late
in the afternoon. This disturbance is likely to develop showers and
thunderstorms that move into the Panhandles through Friday night.
PWATs are expected to be above the 90th percentile, and with
sufficient instability, thunderstorms will produce heavy rain. The
NBM 50th percentile shows generally 0.50" to 1" of rain across the
central portion of the combined Panhandles. With that said, the NBM
90th percentile suggests that pockets of 2" to 3" of rain will be
possible anywhere in the combined Panhandles. Therefore, flooding
and flash flooding will be possible Friday night, especially where
abundant rainfall has fallen recently. A strong to severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, particularly in the western
Panhandles, but this depends upon the degree of elevated instability
that comes to fruition.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are favored to begin the day on
Saturday with widespread cloud coverage currently favored to persist
through the day. The NBM has widespread upper-70 degree highs but if
cloud coverage is to persist through the day, temperatures in the
upper-60s to 70s seem more probable. Yet another shortwave trough is
likely to move from Colorado into the Panhandles late in the
afternoon, causing showers and thunderstorms to develop and move
into the Panhandles once again. Weak instability is expected owing
to the moist atmospheric profile with poor lapse rates. Therefore,
expect light to moderate rain with showers and moderate to heavy
rain with any thunderstorm.

The pattern that`s favorable for shortwaves within the northwest
flow aloft to track through the Panhandles is expected to break down
from Sunday into Monday as a ridge builds over the Intermountain
West region. This is expected to decrease precipitation chances on
Monday and Tuesday. There are some hints that the ridge will
retrograde slightly and a shortwave trough will work its way toward
the area on Wednesday, but confidence is very low at this range.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

LIFR conditions are ongoing at KGUY due to low clouds and patchy
fog. Cannot rule out that the low clouds will get to KDHT, but
confidence is low and will handle with amendments if necessary.
How long the low clouds and especially the fog remains is
uncertain as model guidance is struggling to handle this activity.
In general, expect the low clouds to clear out around or shortly
after 18z at KGUY. Low clouds will move in once again tonight and
this time at all sites with at least MVFR to IFR ceilings being
forecast. Winds will switch to out of the north and eventually be
out of the east during this TAF cycle. Winds could have occasional
gusts up to 25 kts during the afternoon hours.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...05