472
FXUS64 KAMA 041736
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Heat index values in the Palo Duro Canyon on Saturday are likely
to exceed 100 degrees with a slight chance that they also reach
105.

Thunderstorm chances continue tonight through Wednesday. Chances
are low for storms to become severe during this time frame, but
moderate chances for flooding are still present.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Fairly high dewpoints at least in the mid to upper 60s to persist
through Wed before falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Today
and tomorrow, the FA should see some lower 70s Tds in at least the
eastern half of the combined Panhandles. This will make conditions
quite muggy, and hot with the heat indices being higher than the
ambient temperature. All the extra moisture will have ambient
temperatures held back in the upper 80s to lower 90s mainly. With
tomorrow being the warmest day, where PDC may hit the mid 90s and
the heat index in the canyon could well be in the 100-105 range,
making for a dangerous heat risk.

Upper level ridging is expected to build over the Desert
Southwest just to the west with the FA falling under the leading
edge of the ridge. A shortwave trough is also expected to dig over
the Central Great Plains with the trough dipping into the OK
Panhandle this evening before quickly exiting to the east. This
will bring 20 to 30 PoPs to the central OK Panhandle and
surrounding areas this evening after 7 PM. These storms in the
north may have a potential to become severe for straight line
wind gust up to 60 mph. Torrential rainfall will once again be
potential with the amount of available atmospheric moisture.

Tomorrow, with the mid to upper level high pressure just to the
west, perturbations and moisture is expected to wrap around and come
down into the Panhandles from the north to northwest. This will
introduce some additional chance PoPs Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Slight chance to the east to chance in the
west/northwest. Again storms will have to be watched for a severe
threat of straightline winds, mainly in the northwestern combined
Panhandles.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A warm and somewhat humid trend continues into the extended
period with slight chance PoPs scattered across the period.
Afternoon temperatures are progged to remain in the upper 80s to
upper 90s. PWATs are looking to remain around 150% of normal
through much of the period with the PWATs starting to drop off
towards the very end. The monsoonal moisture plume is then
expected to shift to the west over AZ/NM, and the combined
Panhandles will then see PWATs drop to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through 06Z, with chances
for low clouds to move into the southern TX Panhandle impacting
CIGs for KAMA. MVFR to IFR CIGS are possible for KAMA especially
going into the 10Z to 12Z hours Saturday if not sooner. There is
a potential for some patchy fog to develop and lower VIS as well.
KGUY does have a slight chance to be impacted by showers and
thunder this evening between 00Z and 03Z Saturday. Otherwise
expect southerly winds generally less than 10 kts. Any current
winds above 10 kts at this time should come down a bit as the
period progresses.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36