927
FXUS64 KAMA 011141
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
641 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Strong, northerly winds and below average highs are forecast for
today.

The warm and dry pattern returns to the area by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A cold front progresses through the CWA tonight, and based off of
its current speeds, the front should pass through the whole CWA
before sunrise. Winds behind the front remain strong through the
rest of the night, but decrease during the late morning hours. For
the rest of the day winds will revert back from the south and
speeds will be light. High temperatures today are forecast to be
below average, ranging from the upper 60`s in the northwestern
zones, 70`s for the majority rest of the Panhandles, and lower
80`s for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. NBM values are
still coming in warmer than what we are anticipating, given the
duration of the northeasterly winds today so NAM12 values were
used for today`s highs. For the rest of the short term period,
high and low temperatures we`re blended between the NAM12 and NBM
to better capture the resurgence of highs by Wednesday.

Wednesday, temperatures will rebound to the 80`s and lower 90`s
due to the progression of the upper trough away from the High
Plains and the reintroduction of the upper ridge over the area.
Another LLJ will setup across the combined Panhandles and bring
breezy winds in the morning hours, this time from the southwest.
The wind speeds and direction should remain constant through most
of the day, but finally terminate by Thursday morning.

Some patchy elevated fire weather conditions could be present
across the Panhandles for the next couple of days, but not for an
substantial periods of time. High wind speeds for both days could
present a limited threat, but the timing of the winds do not line
up with the peak heating hours of either day. Additionally, minimum
RH values will be too high on both days to truly elevate max RFTI
values above 2.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A mostly warm and dry pattern returns in the extended period.
Highs for the coming days will range in the 80`s and lower 90`s,
with no chances of precipitation forecasted for the next seven
days. The one exception to these persistent highs will be on
Friday, when a weak cold front will move through and introduce 70
and 80 degree temperatures instead. Right now, our confidence is
not high enough to consider a substantial reduction in day time
highs; however, long range deterministic models are hinting at
some lower values compared to the NBM`s current output. For the
time being the NBM 25th percentile has been considered and
implemented for Friday`s temperatures. This should eliminate 90`s
from most of the forecast area except in the southeast corner of
the Texas Panhandle. Still, there remains a chance that highs
could be lower than the current forecast; especially if the front
can move through the entire CWA and stronger winds could follow
behind it.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Breezy to strong northeasterly winds at the surface will continue
at all sites through the morning hours. By the afternoon, winds
will die down and slowly veer back from the south-southwest. Later
tonight, a low level jet will set up over the combined
Panhandles and this creates some low level wind shear concerns
for some TAF sites, particularly at GUY. While confidence is low
at this time to prevail LLWS in the GUY TAF, updates including it
may become necessary once a better forecast can be established for
the wind speeds, height, and most importantly the timeframe of
occurrence.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74  52  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  72  51  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              70  53  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  73  52  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              73  51  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  75  51  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               76  53  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 71  50  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  72  49  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                74  50  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                73  52  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   73  53  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                76  53  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              80  54  90  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55