718
FXUS64 KAMA 181718
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- 10 to 25 percent chances of showers and thunderstorms is still
  present across the Western Panhandles this afternoon and
  evening.

- A new system to our north will see increase chances of severe
  thunderstorms this weekend with best chances in the Eastern
  Panhandles.

- This active pattern is expected to continue into next week
  resulting in wetter and cooler weather for the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Present model agreement has seen a bit of a slower push of the
expected upper-level trough with latest runs not seeing the trough
over the Northern Rockies till late tonight into early Saturday.
This has unfortunately seen our transition to southwesterly flow
not only delay but much weaker than initially expected. What that
means for the Panhandles is that both our storm motion and push of
monsoonal moisture will be a lot weaker for today making it
harder to see showers and thunderstorms actually survive the trip
into the Western Panhandles. As it stands present CAMs are
becoming less and less enthusiastic about the idea with current
chances around 10 to 25 percent at best. Still, these same CAMs
are proposing some decent positive advection of theta-e at the
700mb level, which does suggest that we can still get something by
this evening. Either way, any storms that cans survive the trip
will not be working with much instability with CAPE values barley
reach near 1000 J/kg mark. Instead strong winds will the bigger
threat as CAMs still suggest DCAPE values upwards of 1000 to 1200
J/kg present across our west.

Moving into Saturday, does see our trending pattern shift start to
take better form as model agreement sees the upper-level trough
dig further south into Wyoming and Northern Colorado for the day.
In the upper-levels this placement will see the Panhandles under
much better southwesterly flow, which will invite a lot more of
that monsoonal moisture into the area. Meanwhile at the surface,
present CAMs have continue to present the idea of both a surface
boundary and weak cold front pushing into the area during the
early to late evening hours. These two feature will be key for the
activity that day as their interaction with each other as well as
the actual timing of said interaction will either serve as our
primary lifting mechanism or main detriment to development.
Currently present CAMs are still very back and forth on this
interactions as latest runs are now leaning towards later arrival
that will allow a pocket of dry air moving ahead of the front,
which will likely kill chances in the west. Still enough moisture
could survive in the Eastern Panhandles that we can still see
isolated to scatter showers present across the area. Should that
happened then current CAMs do see enough instability and wind
shear to produce strong to severe thunderstorms with some runs
evening suggesting upwards of 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25 kts of
effective bulk wind shear that evening. With such values present
then it would not be much of a stretch to see larger hail upwards
of ping-pong balls in size. Still the bigger threats may be heavy
rainfall and flooding as these same models are suggest PWAT values
around 1.4 to 1.6 inches. Otherwise this later timing of the front
should still give the Panhandles enough time to heat into low to
mid 90s for the day. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Active weather looks to hold for the long term period as present
model agreement sees the upper-level trough continue its path into
the Northern Great Plains Sunday. This push will help to
reinvigorate linger boundaries still in the Panhandles and allow
us another crack at the monsoonal moisture. Currently, our best
chances are holding across the Northern and Eastern Panhandles for
the day, but do begin to spread further west as we head into the
overnight and early Monday. By that afternoon, present models do
see a new disturbance follow that could lead to another round of
storms across the Southern and Central Panhandles. However, the
better chance may be on Tuesday as models see a yet another trough
push in from Southern California and force the upper-level high
well south into Central Mexico. From here model agreement gets a
little muddy as runs try to keep the active pattern going with a
combination of short-wave disturbances and potential weak frontal
boundaries pushing in from our north. Regardless, the combination
of this active pattern as well as the retreat of the high into
Mexico will see much cooler temperatures across the Panhandles. As
it stands, look for highs to be in the in the mid to upper 80s as
early as Sunday with potential to be in the mid 70s by Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Active weather looks to hold for the long term period as present
model agreement sees the upper-level trough continue its path into
the Northern Great Plains Sunday. This push will help to
reinvigorate linger boundaries still in the Panhandles and allow
us another crack at the monsoonal moisture. Currently, our best
chances are holding across the Northern and Eastern Panhandles for
the day, but do begin to spread further west as we head into the
overnight and early Monday. By that afternoon, present models do
see a new disturbance follow that could lead to another round of
storms across the Southern and Central Panhandles. However, the
better chance may be on Tuesday as models see a yet another trough
push in from Southern California and force the upper-level high
well south into Central Mexico. From here model agreement gets a
little muddy as runs try to keep the active pattern going with a
combination of short-wave disturbances and potential weak frontal
boundaries pushing in from our north. Regardless, the combination
of this active pattern as well as the retreat of the high into
Mexico will see much cooler temperatures across the Panhandles. As
it stands, look for highs to be in the in the mid to upper 80s as
early as Sunday with potential to be in the mid 70s by Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the 18Z TAF period. Winds will
remain predominantly out of the SW/S for the TAF period,
increasing to 15-20 kts through this afternoon (higher at KDHT and
KGUY, lower at KAMA). Storms could be possible at the KDHT TAF
site from 00-06Z this evening, but confidence is low in that
outcome, therefore not included as a PROB30 in the TAF. A westerly
wind shift is possibly at KGUY near the end of the TAF period, as
a front dips south from KS/CO.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...23