Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
431 FXUS64 KAMA 131132 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 632 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Panhandles in multiple rounds stretching from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon - Breezy conditions set to return Wednesday and Thursday && .UPDATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 The cold front continues to move south across the Panhandles this morning and northerly winds are being observed in its wake. The cold front has aided in developing showers and now an isolated thunderstorm that is currently near Miami/Canadian. Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible through much of the day and an isolated storm cannot be ruled out. Only minor changes to the forecast were made to the forecast through the rest of the day. Muscha && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A cold front is moving into the northern Panhandles at this time with the cooler air lagging slightly behind. The front is expected to push into the Panhandles through the night as a subtle/weak shortwave trough moves up from west Texas. This, along with favorable theta-e advection, should force some showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop late tonight across the southern/central Texas Panhandle and move north. Meanwhile, operational guidance in fairly good agreement that the front will end up in a southwest- northeast orientation by 7 AM Monday, from the southwest TX Panhandle to the NE Texas Panhandle. However, solutions diverge afterwards regarding how much additional additional progression there will be through the remainder of the morning hours. Regardless, the operational global models and CAMs all indicate that the front will stall if not retreat some in the afternoon hours. Expecting some mid-level forcing to arrive in the late afternoon hours as well as a surge of higher 700mb theta-e values, possibly resulting in another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. This activity is favored to continue through the night and Tuesday morning, with some guidance suggesting that showers continue into Tuesday afternoon across the central Panhandles. Rainfall totals are most likely to stay between 0.05" and 0.30" with around a 30-40% chance for totals to exceed 0.30" which is focused on the western and central Texas Panhandle. If there are thunderstorms and/or training bands of light to moderate rain, as several CAMs suggest as a possibility, cannot rule out a localized total of around 1". Rain will most likely come to an end by the evening hours and temperatures are expected to drop into the 50s for Tuesday night. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A large trough will be present over the Western US to start the long- term period with a ridge extending from the Southern US through the Midwest. The trough is expected to begin to eject northeastward on Wednesday, and a surface low will deepen in eastern Colorado resulting in a steepening of the surface pressure gradient across the Panhandles. Anticipating 15-25 mph sustained southerly winds across most of the area with gusts between 25-35 mph. Winds will weaken some Wednesday night before re-strengthening to 15-25 mph during the day Thursday. Not expecting fire weather concerns given minimum relative humidity values are forecast to be in the 30-45% range on both days. A cold front is favored to move in Thursday night with cooler temperatures returning to the area for Friday and into the weekend. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Cloud cover will remain prevalent across the Panhandles over the next 24 hours. Ceilings will mostly remain VFR, but MVFR conditions will be possible as low clouds develop late in this TAF period. Light rain showers are possible at all sites but visibility restrictions are not forecast at this point. Winds will be out of the north to northeast initially but will become east to southeast towards the later half of this TAF cycle. Muscha && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...05