376
FXUS64 KAMA 180552
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

- Daily afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances continue through
  Tuesday and potentially Wednesday for portions of the area.

- Near average temperatures are expected over the next 7 days for
  the Panhandles.

- After a break in the thunderstorm activity later this week,
  storm chances may return this upcoming weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

High pressure over the next few days is still forecast to remain
over the Desert Southwest, leaving the southern High Plains under
very weak northerly flow aloft. Temperatures for today and Tuesday
are still expected to remain in the 90s, with Tuesday being just a
few degrees cooler than today. Plentiful monsoonal moisture looks
to remain in place over the region for today and with a weak
disturbance rounding the high this afternoon into this evening,
additional chances for storms are likely today. HREF PWAT values
continue to remain around the 90th percentile for the eastern
Panhandles (with a quick drop off to near or below average PWATs
based on climatology for the northwestern Panhandles) so moderate
to heavy rainfall may still lead to localized flooding concerns
with the very slow moving storms. Small hail and locally strong to
damaging wind gusts are also possible with the stronger, more
robust updrafts. Storms and impacts for today will be very similar
to what they were yesterday.

Not much changes for Tuesday other than subtle northeast flow may
start to come to fruition late in the day. Moisture will still be
sufficient enough to generate showers and storms once again on
Tuesday afternoon into the evening as another weak shortwave
trough moves in over the region. The main thing to watch for on
Tuesday will be the potential for a backdoor cold front, moving
from northeast to southwest across the Panhandles. Timing of this
feature varies in the model guidance, but if it does come across
at the same time as the shortwave, cannot rule out some robust
convection along the front on Tuesday evening into potentially the
overnight hours. Moderate to heavy rain would be the primary
hazard but cannot rule out small hail or locally strong to
damaging winds once again with the stronger updrafts.


Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The center of a H300 high pressure system is expected to remain near
the Four Corners region from Wednesday through at least early this
upcoming weekend. This pattern will mainly lead to dry conditions as
northerly to northeasterly flow cuts off any monsoon moisture to the
Panhandles. There are hints in the model guidance that before the
moisture gets cut off, there could be some showers or storms across
the southern Texas Panhandle on Wednesday afternoon. Confidence in
that panning out right now is low, but will keep NBM rain chances in
there for now. For those that do not like the summer heat, this
pattern also favors near average temperatures through at least this
upcoming weekend as well. Average high temperatures this time of
year are in the lower 90s to upper 80s. Model guidance continues to
suggest a broad scale trough digs south across most of the
eastern CONUS with the center near the Great Lakes region by late
this weekend into early next week. How strong this trough is and
how much the ridge in the west gets suppressed by this feature
very considerably in the models. If the high remains far enough to
the west, northwest flow could develop over the southern High
Plains which would lead to a more active pattern with daily
chances for thunderstorms. Deterministic and ensemble output
trends will need to be monitored over the coming days regarding
the upper level pattern for late this weekend into next week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for much of this TAF cycle. There are
thunderstorms currently northwest of KAMA, but they are expected
to stay to the west of the terminal. Will amend if storms do
approach the site. Additional thunderstorms are possible after
21z, with higher confidence in potential impacts at KDHT and KAMA.
Have included PROB30 groups in the TAFs given the storm potential.
Outside of storms or any outflow boundaries, winds will mainly be
out of the south around 10-15 kts or less.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05