Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
644 FXUS64 KAMA 121125 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 625 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night and Monday through Tuesday morning - Breezy to gusty conditions set to return Tuesday through Thursday - Cooler than normal temperatures are expected Monday and potentially Friday && .UPDATE... Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Climatologically speaking, it is a very warm start to the day for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Due to the continued breezy southwest winds, low temperatures this morning are around 10-20 degrees above average for mid October. The warm start to the day will lead to another warm day with highs in the 80s even with mostly cloudy skies for most areas throughout the day. A weak shortwave may generate very light rain showers aloft later this morning into the afternoon. Due to the dry low levels, rain is not expected to accumulate, but cannot rule out some sprinkles reaching the surface. The previous forecast remains on track with only minor edits made based on surface observations from this morning. Muscha && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 There is currently a shortwave trough over the Northwestern US and an associated surface low being observed in eastern Montana/northeastern Wyoming with a secondary surface low in eastern Colorado/southwestern Nebraska. These features will move off to the northeast through the night, and the steep pressure gradient that had been driving the breezy winds throughout Saturday will gradually relax, resulting in gradually weakening surface winds through tonight and Sunday. A cold front will move in from the north Sunday evening. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible along this front Sunday night, and won`t be able to rule out a few thunderstorms if there`s enough elevated instability. Forecast soundings show that there will be a fairly robust layer of low-level dry air which says that virga will occur for a period of time before the low-levels are saturated enough for rain to make it to the surface. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough with apparent eastern Pacific origins, will approach the Panhandles throughout Monday. This system will bring in subtropical moisture to the Panhandles (particularly the eastern Panhandles) with PWATs ranging from around 1" to 1.1" in the northwestern Panhandles to 1.5" to 1.9" in the eastern Panhandles. Additionally, favorable forcing associated with the shortwave should bring scattered showers across the CWA that move in from the south. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with a band of 300-500 J/kg of elevated instability that progresses from south to north as moisture aloft increases with the approach of the shortwave. CAMs are showing signs of training bands of light to moderate rain setting up later on Monday night across various portions of the Panhandles. Most likely rainfall totals range from around 0.10" to 0.30", but locally higher amounts will be possible, particularly with areas that see thunderstorms or with areas that do see the aforementioned rain bands. As such, the NBM gives the entire area at least a 15% chance to exceed 0.30", but the relatively higher probabilities (20-45%) is focused more from the southwest Texas Panhandle northeastward into the northeast combined Panhandles. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Rain may be ongoing across a portion of the Panhandles to begin this long-term period but should move out by Tuesday afternoon. A longwave trough will dip into the Western US through Tuesday as a surface low deepens in eastern Colorado. This will result in winds strengthening through the day as clouds clear from south to north. Temperatures will rebound into the 70s across the area with low to mid-80s in the southeastern TX Panhandle. The trough will begin to move off to the east-northeast through Wednesday resulting in stronger lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado. Favoring breezy/gusty conditions through the day; the NBM already has 15-25 mph sustained winds (lowest in the south/highest in the north) with some room to go slightly higher if the forecast remains consistent. Breezy winds are favored to continue into Thursday as the trough moves into Canada and the right entrance region of the jet streak favors a low developing in SE Colorado. A cold front is favored to move in from the north Thursday night as the surface low pushes off to the east with cooler air being brought with it; the latest NBM brings overnight lows into the low-40s in the northwestern combined Panhandles. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR conditions are likely over the next 24 hours. Breezy southwesterly winds are forecast at the terminals through 00z. A cold front will switch winds to out of the north to northeast during the later half of this TAF cycle. High clouds will continue to move in across the region. Muscha && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...05