813
FXUS64 KAMA 300521
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1221 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

- Heat ramps up tomorrow, more locations see highs in the 90s.

- Cold front Monday night into Tuesday brings breezy winds and
  cooler temperatures.

- Above average heat comes right back Wednesday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

The heat is back on tomorrow thanks to upper level ridging
currently spanning from the southwest to midwest CONUS. Even as
high pressure weakens with an approaching trough over southern
California, warming 850mb temps will push our way. Daytime highs
tomorrow will easily climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s area wide
as a result. Record highs appear less likely, but that`s of little
consequence considering just how unseasonably warm it will be for
late September.

We finally catch a break as the aforementioned trough allows a
cold front to enter the northern Panhandles Mon night - Tue
morning. The initial impacts of the front will be seen across the
north-northwestern Panhandles, when winds will begin to ramp up
out of the northeast. Latest 12z runs of the HRRR and NAM Nest
depict gusts up to 30-35 mph possible with the frontal passage as
early as midnight, lasting into Tue morning. While the breeze will
make it feel cooler, most folks should still wake up to low temps
in the 50s just like most mornings as of late. Precipitation is
not expected with this front.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Still tracking trends on Tuesday, when a cold front is expected
to enter the area. Model guidance continues to fluctuate on how
much of a temperature difference this front will ultimately make,
but they`re finally starting to converge on some middle ground.
Latest forecasts show breezier winds with the front Tuesday
morning thanks to a tighter pressure gradient. These north-
northeast winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 35 mph) would allow
slightly better advection of cooler air to the Panhandles before
the front stalls out through the day. Right now, most of the
Panhandles can expect highs in the 70s Tuesday afternoon, with
temps in the low 80s more likely along and south of the I-40
corridor. If cooler guidance such as the NAM pans out, highs may
even be 5-10 degrees cooler than NBM projections, but this isn`t
the most likely outcome.

High pressure and heat promptly returns midweek onward, with highs
progged to be in the 80s to low 90s each day. Winds will be
lighter, but still breezy at times. Overnight lows should stay
steady in the 50s. Another weak front could make a push towards
the Panhandles by Friday, but long range models are less than
thrilled with this potential.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

No major changes to the forecast. VFR conditions continue at all
TAF sites. Light and generally southerly surface winds are
expected at all terminals for the next 24 hours.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                93  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  93  53  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              90  49  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  97  58  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              93  54  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  91  55  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               91  58  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 89  50  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  92  51  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                93  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                93  57  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   93  56  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                93  59  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              93  59  84  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...55