110
FXUS64 KAMA 140511 CCA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1211 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

- Dense fog is expected across the northeastern Panhandles this
  morning but should dissipate by around 10 AM.

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the
Panhandles in multiple rounds stretching through the afternoon.

- Breezy conditions set to return Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Showers, perhaps with some isolated thunderstorms, will most likely
be ongoing in the northwestern Panhandles to start Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile in the eastern combined Panhandles, fog is expected to be
present and should continue into the mid-morning hours. CAMs
continue to signal the potential for one or more rounds of showers
with embedded thunderstorms to last through the morning and
afternoon hours in the northwestern Panhandles, possibly as bands.
Latest guidance becoming more confident regarding this activity
occurring and resulting in some more decent rainfall totals; the
HREF gives around a 30-50% chance for rain totals to exceed 1"
across the northwestern combined Panhandles where the rain band(s)
are more favored to set up with the reasonable worst case (90th
percentile) being around 1.3" to 1.6". Rain should come to an end
across the area by Tuesday evening as clouds clear from south to
north.

An upper-level trough in the Western US will begin to eject east-
northeastward Wednesday with a surface low developing in eastern
Colorado. The surface pressure gradient will tighten as a result and
winds will strengthen to 15-25 mph throughout the day with gusts
between 25 to 35 mph with around a 20-40% chance for wind gusts to
exceed 35 mph in the northwestern combined Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

An upper-level trough lifts into the Northern Plains throughout
Thursday, and the right entrance region of the associated jet streak
will favor the development of a surface low in SE Colorado. 15-25
mph sustained winds with gusts between 25-35 mph will once again be
anticipated across the area with a 30-60% chance for wind gusts to
exceed 35 mph across the northern and central Panhandles. A cold
front is favored to move in late Thursday night which brings some
cooler air in for Friday.

Operational models as well as their ensemble means indicate that the
overall large-scale pattern will progress eastward. An upper-level
ridge will begin to build over the Panhandles as another trough is
favored to move over the Pacific Northwest later in the weekend.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

MVFR to VFR ceilings are present at this time, but ceilings are
expected to lower to IFR to LIFR categories tonight, but will lift
to VFR through the morning. Rain showers are ongoing at KDHT and
KGUY and should continue through the next few hours, with
intermittent showers possible afterwards through the remainder of
the overnight hours. Rain showers will be possible again at KDHT
and KGUY later today; however, confidence is currently greater at
KDHT than KGUY which is why it`s included in the TAFs for the
former and not the latter.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ004-005-
     009-010.

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52