151
FXUS64 KAMA 041207
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
707 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Heavy snow, 5 inches or more, is likely for the southwestern
Texas Panhandle. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect.

Snowfall is still forecast for the rest of the combined
Panhandles. Current totals range from 1-4 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

As the upper level low continues it`s eastern progression,
rainfall proceeds for portions of the Texas Panhandle and spreads
further north with time. Surface winds will turn northerly in the
eastern combined Panhandles later this morning, while the rest of
the CWA should maintain westerly winds. The cold front will
arrive later this evening and enter in from the northwest. Wind
speeds will increase and flow from the northeast behind the cold
front. There could be a bit of a lull in shower activity today as
we lose our source of lift this afternoon. As soon as the cold
front moves through it will reinvigorate shower activity and rain
will transition to snow as temperatures plummet. A localized heavy
band of snow should develop south of the Canadian River Valley
according to new short term model guidance. A Winter Storm Watch
has been issued for the counties we expected to receive 5 inches
or more. However, an expansion of the watch product is not out of
the question if there is an overall slower progression of the
upper level low, or we receive higher snowfall rates. Snowfall
should cease after dark on Saturday as the system continues
further south and east outside of our area. Low temperatures
Sunday morning should fall to the teens and 20`s behind the
system.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

After cooler than normal temperatures on Sunday behind our departing
storm system, high temperatures will warm to around normal on Monday
and then they will be above normal Tuesday through the end of this
forecast. Upper level heights will start to rise on Sunday and then
an upper level ridge will move over the Panhandles by Thursday into
Friday. Southwest winds may get a little gusty on Tuesday as an
upper level short wave trough moves just to our north along the
southern edge of a rapid northwest flow aloft.  A weak cold front
may pass through the Panhandles on Thursday morning as a minor upper
air disturbance moves just to our north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Showers continue in some spots of the Panhandles, and ceilings
fluctuate between IFR to VFR as rainfall changes cloud bases.
This process will continue through the morning and much of the
afternoon. By the evening and overnight hours IFR conditions will
enter into all TAF sites. DHT and GUY will see a quick transition
from rain to snow.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                54  28  38  24 /  90  90 100  60
Beaver OK                  53  27  44  22 /  90  90  70  30
Boise City OK              50  21  44  19 /  90  90  70  10
Borger TX                  57  29  43  25 /  90  90  90  50
Boys Ranch TX              56  27  41  22 /  90 100 100  40
Canyon TX                  53  28  38  23 /  80  90 100  60
Clarendon TX               55  33  41  27 /  90  90 100  70
Dalhart TX                 53  21  42  18 /  90 100  90  30
Guymon OK                  54  23  44  20 /  80  90  70  20
Hereford TX                54  26  35  22 /  80  90 100  60
Lipscomb TX                54  30  45  26 /  90  90  80  50
Pampa TX                   54  28  40  25 /  90  90  90  60
Shamrock TX                55  33  42  29 /  90  90  90  70
Wellington TX              57  34  43  30 /  90  90  90  80

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening
     for TXZ011-012-016-017-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...55