288
FXUS64 KAMA 211120
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
620 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the central and
 southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon.

- Hot temperatures meeting or exceeding 105 degrees are forecast
 for the eastern Texas Panhandle and Palo Duro Canyon today.

- Daily thunderstorm chances and hot day time temperatures
  continue for the next several days. The greatest impacts from
  heat will be across the southeastern Texas Panhandle, while the
  greatest impacts from thunderstorms will be across the
  northwestern combined Panhandles.

- Forecast trends are being monitored for a potential pattern
  change mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Not much has changed with regard to temperatures in the short term
period. Highs ranging from 98 to 108 are expected for the combined
Panhandles. Heat Advisories will likely continue for the southeast
Texas Panhandle for the next several days, with NBM guidance
suggesting highs may not drop below 105 degrees for these areas
until next Wednesday... Fortunately, light winds will keep fire
weather concerns at bay at least for the next couple of days.

A short wave trough is expected to move from north to south across
portions of our CWA later this afternoon. Behind this boundary
theta-e profiles and instability will be favorable enough for a
few isolated thunderstorms to form. How far south the trough moves
will dictate where precipitation initiates in the afternoon. From
there, a southerly storm motion is expected until activity ends
with day time heating. There`s a low chance that storms from
Colorado and Kansas survive and impact our northern zones late
tonight and into Saturday morning, but confidence is low amongst
the latest CAMs. Tomorrow afternoon, another low chance for storms
is forecast mainly across the central and southern Texas
Panhandle.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Messaging in the extended period still revolves around when long
range models want the upper level ridge to break down. The average
GEFS ensemble member suggests high pressure continues over the area
much like previous days, while the mean output of ENS ensembles
display more pronounced troughing over the CWA. Even the operational
Canadian model shows moderate chances for highs to stay in the 80s
late next week. While models typically struggle with upper level
pattern changes during transitional seasons, there is still stronger
evidence we stay above, or at best, around seasonal averages for
this time of year. More model consistency is needed for stronger
signals of a more pronounced pattern change.

Sunday through Tuesday, hot >100 degree temperatures are expected
almost area wide. The southeast Texas Panhandle may even be on a
streak of >105 degree days until Wednesday. Wednesday onward, the
region is forecast to enter back into a northwest flow regime. PoPs
for the rest of the week increase with a NW/SE gradient across the
Panhandles; as per usual, favoring the northwest with higher rain
chances. Temperatures should also be impacted to some degree, but
the magnitude of this downward shift will depend on how strong the
upper trough becomes next week.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A weak surface boundary is expected to stall somewhere across the
Texas Panhandles this afternoon, which will provide us a lifting
mechanism for chances at thunderstorms through late tonight.
However, with moisture today lacking in comparison to yesterday,
these storms are expected to be much more isolated, with chances
of impacts to the terminals not high enough to mention in the
current TAF package. Instead, expect for VFR conditions to be the
more dominate condition at the terminals for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ005-008>010-014-015-018-019.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11