706
FXUS64 KAMA 101107
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
607 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Above normal temperatures continues across the panhandles through
the rest of the week with possible record high temperatures on
Saturday.

Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may cause
strong gusty outflow winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

High pressure remains the dominant weather feature across the
southern plains for today. There is a small disturbance riding
around the edge of this high pressure passing across the
panhandles today. This disturbance is bringing a little mid level
moisture along for the ride which will allow for afternoon rain
showers and thunderstorms to form mainly in SE TX panhandle. Even
with if either of these occurs the rain accumulations will be
minimal to none as there is a deep dry layer below the clouds.
This dry layer will instead make these storms better at producing
winds than rain with any one capable of dry microbursts. Friday
the disturbance will be gone and the moisture with it so sunny and
calm conditions will prevail. Temperatures will remain above
normal so long as the high pressure remains over the panhandles
with highs in the 80s to 90s for both days. These temperatures
will be close to possibly even at record levels in spots for
Friday.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

The high pressure remains over the southern plains on Saturday
which will continue the above normal temperatures. The highs have
a high chance of being in the 80s to 90s which will be near or
even at record levels.

Then come the start of next week the southern plains will have the
high pressure weaken and be supplanted by a trough. This trough
will pass a dry cold front across the panhandles on Sunday which
will finally break the above normal temperatures. This will see
the temperatures fall by 5 to 10 degrees. Then come on Tuesday
another push of cool air should arrive in the panhandles. This
push may bring some moisture with it that may cause a few rain
showers. Regardless of rain chances this push of cool air should
keep temperatures near seasonable through mid week. There is some
indication that high pressure will return to the region at the end
of the week. If this comes to pass then drier and warmer
conditions may return to the panhandles.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

VFR conditions persist across the panhandles and all terminals for
the next 24 hours. There is a low chance for afternoon rain
showers and thunderstorms that could cause strong gusty outflow
winds. The chance of these impacting any terminal is currently not
high enough to reflect in the TAFs but the chances are not zero.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  86  51  91  51 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              86  51  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  92  56  95  57 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              90  53  92  53 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  90  55  91  54 /  10  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               91  56  91  57 /  20  20   0   0
Dalhart TX                 87  49  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  88  50  91  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                90  54  92  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                86  54  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   89  56  91  57 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                89  56  92  56 /  20  20   0   0
Wellington TX              91  57  93  57 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98