537
FXUS64 KAMA 292344
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
644 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Periods of heavy to very heavy rain is expected this afternoon
  through tomorrow morning. There is a moderate risk for flash
  flooding across the western and central combined Panhandles
  where a Flood Watch has been issued.

- There is a low chance for severe weather this afternoon through
  Wednesday morning across portions of the panhandle. This
  includes damaging wind gusts and brief/weak tornadoes.

- Drier and cooler Thursday into Friday with highs only in the
  upper 60s to low 70s. North winds may become gusty behind a cold
  front Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

We are at the beginning of about a 24 hour period of potentially
impactful weather, mainly due to excessive rain but also including
a low chance of few brief/weak tropical tornadoes this afternoon
and evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the western and
central combined Panhandles through tomorrow afternoon. The main
drivers for the active weather include an upper level trough
currently centered over the southern tip of NV combined with
remnant moisture from Hurricane Polo as it gets caught up in the
broad southwest flow aloft. The latest information from the
National Hurricane Center suggest Polo is still a hurricane as it
moves across the Gulf of California, and the main remnants should
be moving over the Panhandle area tonight into tomorrow morning.
This will promote high moisture levels, with an extended period
with near daily max PWATs (1.4" - 1.6"+) as indicated in the
latest ensemble output.

The increased moisture will combined with instability and lift
from the upper level system to produce widespread rainfall now
through tonight, before ending from southwest to northeast through
tomorrow morning. Most likely rainfall (50th percentile) for the
event ranges from around 0.5" in the far east to 3.0" in the west.
High resolution models from both the HREF and REFS ensembles
along with medium and long range ensembles suggest there will be
at least one band of much heavier rainfall (10 percent chance of
exceeding 6", but ensemble max values over 10"), with the most
favored position being from near Hereford to Dumas. The position
could easily shift slightly southeast (more favoring Amarillo) or
northwest (more favoring Dalhart). Areas that end up under the
band of very heavy rain will likely see significant runoff and
flash flooding, especially over urban and low lying areas. The
best timing for this threat will be between about 22z and 06z this
afternoon into tonight.

Another concern is the severe aspect of this system. Tropical
systems typically support strongly veering wind profiles in the
lowest 0-1km range, and model hodographs certainly support that
this afternoon through tonight. The main question for getting
spin-ups is the lack of low level CAPE due to sluggish almost
moist-adiabatic lapse rates near the surface. Very skinny CAPE
profiles approach ~1200 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon with ground
scraping LCLs, and there may be brief periods where destabilization
is sufficient for weak/brief tornadoes. Some of the stronger
cells could also produce locally damaging winds near 60mph due to
wet microbursts. Activity should quickly come to an end tomorrow
morning as the dry sector moves across the area.

Ward

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Lingering moisture on the backside of the system will interact
with a cold front with a low to medium chance for rain mainly
across the northern half of the combined Panhandle Thursday then
more of the area Thursday night. Impacts should be minimal.
However, gusty north winds behind the cold front are expected,
with strongest gusts perhaps near 40 to 50 mph in the northwest
zones. This will be the first decent cold front of the year, with
highs only in the 60s by Friday, and lows potentially dipping into
the 40s and low 50s Thursday night through Sunday night.

Ward

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Currently VFR conditions are starting the 00Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Conditions should quickly change to MVFR within the
first 1-3 hrs of the TAF period, especially for KAMA where VCTS
and locally heavy rain from any storms may occur, along with
lowering cigs to MVFR levels. A PROB30 was also added for KAMA for
TSRA potential through 06Z. Past 06Z through around 14-15Z,
MVFR/IFR cigs should impact all TAF sites. VFR cigs should then
return past 18Z and continue to the end of the TAF period. Winds
will be out of the south and southwest at 10-20 kts, with higher
gusts at times, especially by midday on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The latest information from the National Hurricane Center suggest
Polo is still a hurricane as it moves across the Gulf of
California, and the main remnants should be moving over the
Panhandle area tonight into tomorrow morning. This will promote
high moisture levels, with an extended period with near daily max
PWATs (1.4" - 1.6"+) as indicated in the latest ensemble output. The
increased moisture will combined with instability and lift from
the upper level system to produce widespread rainfall now through
tonight, before ending from southwest to northeast through
tomorrow morning. Most likely rainfall (50th percentile) for the
event ranges from around 0.5" in the far east to 3.0" in the west.
High resolution models from both the HREF and REFS ensembles
along with medium and long range ensembles suggest there will be
at least one band of much heavier rainfall due to training storms
(10 percent chance of exceeding 6", but ensemble max values over
10"), with the most favored position being from near Hereford to
Dumas. The position could easily shift slightly southeast (more
favoring Amarillo) or northwest (more favoring Dalhart). Areas
that end up under the band of very heavy to torrential rain will
likely see significant runoff and flash flooding, especially over
urban and low lying areas. The best timing for this threat will be
between about 22z and 06z this afternoon into tonight.

Ward

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ001>003-006>008-
     011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...29