776
FXUS64 KAMA 111829
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
129 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

- Storms this evening may be strong to severe and could produce
  heavy rain that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Temperatures over the next week will gradually warm back up to
  near average.

- A pattern change may lead to additional shower and thunderstorm
  chances next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Conditions are setting up for another active weather day across the
Panhandles, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected for
south and central portions of the TX Panhandle. Portions of the OK
and northern TX Panhandles received heavy rain (localized 1-3"
totals) from a line of storms last night, leaving those areas fairly
worked over with lower rain chances. As the upper level system
departs tomorrow, rain cooled air and lingering cloud cover will
make for a pleasant August afternoon with light winds and highs in
the 80s to low 90s. Model guidance suggest there may be enough
lingering moisture and lift in the area to support some isolated
afternoon pop-up convection, capable of brief heavy downpours and
gusty winds (~20% POPs).

Our focus later this evening into the overnight hours is on the
central to southern TX Panhandle, where an upper level shortwave and
diffuse sfc boundary will help fire up potentially strong-severe
convection. In the wake of last night`s thunderstorms, satellite
imagery shows cloud cover dissipating surprisingly well over the
area, spelling the potential for sufficient atmospheric
destabilization to occur through the day. Highs in the 80s to low
90s combined with dew pts in the upper 50s to low 60s will help CAPE
values reach 1000-2000 J/kg, in the presence of 20-30 kt bulk shear
values, will create an environment supportive of potentially severe
hail and damaging wind gusts. CAMs show the diffuse sfc boundary
firing up a few scattered cells across the central Panhandle around
4-6 PM, before the upper wave helps initiate more widespread
convection likely along/south of the I-40 corridor. One thing to
watch will be where exactly the boundary sets up, along with the
influence of any new outflow boundaries. While widespread
precipitation is favored across the south, negative boundary
interactions or a further south track of the trough could shunt
the bulk of activity to Lubbock`s CWA. But for now, expect showers
and storms to fill in across the south-southeast later this
evening- overnight. Several models have become more aggressive on
forecast rainfall totals tonight, highlighting local bulls-eyes
of 1-3" rain amounts. Thanks to 1.25-1.75" PWATs, we believe those
totals will be achievable, especially for any areas that receive
the strongest storms, multiple rounds of storms, or prolonged
periods of moderate rain behind the initial line of storms.
Highest probabilities to exceed 1" of rain exist generally along
and south of the I-40 and Hwy 60 corridors. These conditions could
produce localized flooding tonight, so we continue urging people
to have access to weather alerts and utilize extra caution on the
roadways.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Quieter weather with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s is looking
favorable Wednesday, with a relatively stagnant synoptic pattern
aloft. By Thu-Fri, high pressure may set back up over the high
Plains, spelling the return of widespread 90s with even a few
spotty triple digits. Lee sfc cyclogenesis off the Rockies also
points to our typical Panhandle breeze coming back, generally in
the 15-25 mph range. Long range ensembles show high pressure
becoming displaced late Friday into the weekend, allowing SW flow
aloft to usher in weak disturbances and improved deep layer
moisture. Currently, expect near average highs in the 90s with
15-25% precipitation chances each day.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Thunderstorm potential increases this evening into the overnight
hours, especially around KAMA after 00z where storm confidence is
highest. KDHT and KGUY have lower chances to be directly impacted,
but have maintained PROB30 groups for those sites. Otherwise,
winds will be mostly light and variable once storms clear with VFR
sky conditions.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38