Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
396 FXUS64 KAMA 010535 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1135 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1114 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 -A cold front will bring high temperatures potentially back into the 30s by Thursday after warming near to just above normal on Tuesday. -Looking at our next chance of winter precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday. Confidence is low for impactful accumulations at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1114 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 A positively tilted open wave trough, with its axis running from southern CA to WY, is currently showing on GOES water vapor imagery as of this writing. This trough is progged to swing through this morning bringing a very slim chance of measuring some snow in the far northeastern combined Panhandles early today. Despite northeastern Beaver County having the best shot with at snow, a good majority of the central to northern combined Panhandles may still have a chance at seeing some flurries from about sunrise to noon. This will be thanks to an associated surface boundary, a surface trough/weak cold front, that may give some added lift through convergence. At the surface winds will be more south to southeast on the eastern side of this boundary and may provide just enough low level moisture to squeeze out some frozen hydrometeors. Also, as the H5 trough comes through there may still be just enough moisture in the DGZ higher up to help saturate a dry layer between H7 and H5. This activity should wane going into the afternoon as the trough swings out. For today, afternoon temperatures are expected to warm slightly higher than yesterday by a few degrees. With this system expected to exit fairly quickly this afternoon, H85 temperatures are progged to warm, mainly in the western Panhandles to around 1 to 2 degrees C. Skies are also expected to clear out from west to east allowing for some warmth from the sun. Should see a lot more afternoon highs in the 40s today with the exception of the northeast that may only get to the mid 30s. Tonight, skies clear and winds calm allowing temperatures to drop into the teens and low 20s again. For tomorrow, slight ridging aloft is expected to allow some warmer H85 temperatures to move in from the south to southwest across the combined Panhandles. H85 temperatures are progged to warm to around 10 to 11 degrees C, leading to afternoon highs near normal in the mid 50s potentially even the upper 50s under clear skies and southwest winds. A surface trough to the northwest will help create southwest winds around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. This leeside low will be induced by another trough progged to approach the Panhandles. This trough is expected to send another cold front into the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1114 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Another open wave trough is progged to approach the area Wed, with an associated cold front cooling afternoon highs by 5 to 8 degrees. The strongest CAA is expected Wed night into Thu, with Thu`s lows returning to the teens and low 20s. Afternoon temperatures on Thu are looking to be even cooler with many areas in the Panhandles once again struggling to warm above the 30s. The trough is also expected to bring a shot a some wintry precipitation again, mainly on Thu, and mainly as snow. However, confidence is still low on timing and how much precipitation can come of this. Right now PoPs are as high as 30 in the west late Wed night and 30 across the southern combined Panhandles during the day on Thu. The newest run of the NBM has sped things up a bit with the western Panhandles potentially seeing precipitation start well before sunrise Thu. Fifty percent of the NBM members barely give the far western third of the FA a quarter to three quarters of an inch of snow. The NBM mean gives much more of the CWA this amount with a small area reaching from Dalhart and Stratford up northwest to Boise City and Stratford a potential one inch of snow. Until the day of, details will continue to be potentially fuzzy, and may still see a downtrend in potential for snow just like with this mornings system. Friday onward the forecast is dry with a gradual warm up with Sat being the warmest Panhandles wide with highs in the upper 50s to potentially lower 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 MVFR CIGs may continue to impact KGUY and KAMA until 12Z, with a potential to last closer to 18Z. Some of the cloud cover early today, after sunrise will give all three terminals a chance at seeing some flurries with minimal impacts other than the low CIGs. Conditions should improve by 18Z at the latest. Winds are expected to turn northerly for KDHT with the passage of a surface boundary with speeds picking up to around 15 kts. KAMA and KGUY may see winds turn north depending on the extent this boundary travels, but should only see winds up to 10 kts. Otherwise, expecting southerly winds around 12 to 15 kts drop to 10 kts or less after 12Z. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36