737
FXUS64 KAMA 021104
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
604 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

- Precipitation chances remain low until they increase late this
  week.

- Temperatures in the 90s are expected to return Wednesday, but
  highs will drop below average later this week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

It`s another great day of weather in the Panhandles, as we enjoy a
slight drop in temperatures behind a weak front. Light north winds
in its wake will keep highs in the 80s beneath mostly sunny skies.
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week by far as rising
heights aloft lead to warming 850mb temps. Resulting afternoon
temperatures will leave the Panhandles with a late taste of Summer,
as highs reach the low 90s. Locations within the Canadian River
Valley and Palo Duro Canyon will even have medium chances to exceed
95 degrees. Overnight into Thursday, model guidance shows a back
door front pushing in from the northeast, pulling higher low-level
moisture with it, which could be sufficient to produce some light
showers. However, forcing along this front will be rather weak
leading to meager 15-20% probabilities for measurable rainfall.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s to low 60s each night.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Model data mostly agrees that the synoptic pattern will fail to
provide any weather maker to the region on Thursday, maintaining
highs in the 80s to low 90s. The pattern takes a bit of a turn to
end the week into the weekend, when global models show an upper
level low crossing from the Pacific to the western CONUS.
Northwest flow aloft ahead of this system will allow another cold
front to arrive on Friday, bringing a more significant cool down
to the region into the weekend. This front along with the
approaching upper level system will pull a stronger fetch of
moisture to the southern Plains, increasing precipitation
probabilities while maintaining below average temperatures. Recent
runs of the GFS are coming in with a stronger low lifting over
the Panhandles by Sunday, which would have the ability to greatly
improve deep layer moisture advection (PWATs >1.5"). Even less
aggressive guidance have seen an uptick in rainfall outputs into
next week. These trends have been fluctuating, but precipitation
opportunities are likely to increase during this time frame.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout the 12Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. Winds will be variable under 10 kts with mostly clear
skies.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...29