485
FXUS64 KAMA 120700
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
200 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

-Gradual transition to temperatures about 10-15 degrees above
 normal. Warmest day looks to be on Tuesday and Wednesday.

-Tuesday and Wednesday gusty winds return across the panhandles
 with Wednesday being the windiest day of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

A ridge of high pressure continues to sit across the southern
planes for the next couple of days. This is keep dry air across
the panhandles which is leading to sunny and fair weather. There
is going to be a shift in the weather come Tuesday as the ridge
starts to weaken with the approach of a weather system from
western CONUS. For the panhandles this weather system will lead to
the formation of a lee trough off the front range and increased
pressure gradient. These in turn will be the driving forces for
the winds to become stronger and shift to the west. These
downsloping winds will in turn cause compressional warming over
the panhandles which will make Tuesday warmer than today even with
the weakening of the ridge.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Wednesday has a high chance of the weather system ejecting out of
the west and across the Great Plains. This will serve to intensify
both the lee trough off the front range and the increase the
pressure gradient across the southern plains. These in turn will
cause the winds to become even stronger on Wednesday which will
make it the windiest day of the week. These winds will remain
westerly keep the downslope warming in full effect across the
panhandles. This means the Wednesday will be almost or just as
warm as Tuesday when the ridge of high pressure was still present
over the southern plains. Also the west winds will keep dry air
streaming across the panhandles so no other active weather is
currently expected with this weather system. Once this system
departs late on Wednesday a broad trough will have a moderate
chance of remaining across the panhandles. This will have a high
chance of leading to a cooldown across the panhandles that will
last only a short duration. Starting next weekend there is low,
but building, confidence that another weather system will form
over the western US. If this occurs then the large scale pattern
may allow for some Gulf moisture to return to at least the
eastern portions of the panhandles. So after a week of dry weather
the stormy spring season may be back and ready to impact the
panhandles.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Generally south winds of 10-15 kts with slightly higher gusts at
times are expected at all sites throughout the period, with VFR
sky conditions.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                86  56  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  85  51  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              87  53  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  88  55  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              88  54  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  86  55  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               83  53  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 87  51  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  86  49  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                88  57  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                83  54  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   83  54  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                81  52  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              82  52  94  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...38