856
FXUS64 KAMA 261911
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
211 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

- Strong to severe storm threat is lower but will still be
  possible this evening and again Sunday.

- Daily chances for thunderstorms continue through the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

In the wake of last night`s hectic hullabaloo of thunderstorms,
we cannot entirely rule out another strong to severe storm or two
entering the southwest Texas Panhandle later this evening. Mid-
level water vapor satellite imagery shows a few cells trying to
initiate across the eastern Plains of New Mexico this afternoon
thanks to a subtle shortwave disturbance and residual outflow
boundary from overnight convection. In our neck of the woods,
mesoanalysis confirms that the atmosphere over the southern and
central TX Panhandle was thoroughly worked-over last night into
this morning, which would favor this activity to weaken by the
time it crosses the TX-NM state line. As of 18z, only weak
recovery and destabilization has occurred this afternoon across
the southwest to central TX Panhandle where clouds have broken up
through the morning. Temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 60s
with 50s dew pts support modest MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg in
the aforementioned areas, with capping holding in place. However,
forecast soundings indicate shear profiles would be favorable for
all hazards of severe weather if any storms can maintain
themselves when they arrive later this evening, likely after 5 PM.
Unfortunately, even a dying supercell or two could sustain heavy
enough rainfall to exacerbate flooding concerns if it were to trek
across our far southwestern counties, where 1-5" of rain fell in
the last 24 hrs.

Despite several numerical models forecasting a sharp dry line
to be draped somewhere over the central to eastern Panhandle
tomorrow afternoon, along with increased upper level flow
precluding an approaching closed low, most CAMs fail to initiate
convection due to the presence of capping inversions. If storms
can initiate, shear and instability would be sufficient enough for
an isolated supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging
winds. Given low forecast confidence, POPs are limited to 15-30%
across the eastern combined Panhandles.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

The active weather pattern with seasonal temperatures we`ve found
ourselves in as of late looks to continue well into next week.
Severe weather potential on Monday will be confined to a very
narrow portion of the SE TX Panhandle, where southwest flow aloft
ahead of a deep, positively tilted trough may allow a sharp
dryline to barely situate itself in areas in the far southeast
along/off the caprock. If storms are able to develop in our
forecast area Mon afternoon-evening, they may become strong to
severe before quickly darting off to the east. Otherwise we can
expect a sunny and breezy day for a majority of the Panhandles.

Ensemble data suggest Tue-Wed`s precipitation trends hinge on the
arrival of a weak cold front, with moisture quality in doubt when
it arrives. Beyond midweek, model agreement drastically
decreases, but the signal for an active pattern with more
thunderstorm opportunities into next weekend continues to exist.
Trends will be monitored closely as we get closer.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Conditions have improved to VFR at KAMA, while KDHT and KGUY
continue to have persistent or at least intermittent MVFR to IFR
ceilings. There is a very low chance for any additional showers or
storms to impact any TAF sites during the 18z period, so mentions
have been left out for now. Low ceilings should return to all
sites later this afternoon-evening into the overnight hours,
clearing tomorrow morning. Winds will stay out of the south-
southeast at 10-20 kts, picking up out of the southwest at KDHT
tomorrow morning-afternoon.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                56  84  56  80 /  20  10  20   0
Beaver OK                  51  82  57  84 /  20  20  20   0
Boise City OK              50  83  46  79 /  30   0   0   0
Borger TX                  57  86  59  83 /  10  10  20   0
Boys Ranch TX              56  86  53  80 /  30  10  20   0
Canyon TX                  56  84  55  80 /  20  10  20   0
Clarendon TX               57  81  61  83 /  30  20  30  10
Dalhart TX                 52  83  45  77 /  30  10  10   0
Guymon OK                  51  85  51  81 /  30   0  10   0
Hereford TX                56  86  51  81 /  20  10  20   0
Lipscomb TX                54  80  61  83 /  20  10  20  10
Pampa TX                   57  81  59  82 /  20   0  30  10
Shamrock TX                55  80  61  84 /  20  20  30  10
Wellington TX              57  80  61  86 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38