946
FXUS64 KAMA 071121
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
521 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 306 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

- A prolonged period of precipitation is expected from now
  through Friday afternoon across the Panhandles.

- Periods of wet snow is expected across a portion of the
northwestern Panhandles; mostly in western Cimarron county and
northwestern Dallam county.

- There is high uncertainty regarding how much snow will fall, and
for how much of Cimarron and Dallam counties. There is the potential
for highly impactful snow, potentially exceeding a foot, for western
Cimarron county and perhaps far northwestern Dallam county. There is
lower confidence in this scenario, but it is in the realm of
possibilities.

- Widespread rain is expected across the Panhandles with amounts
  generally expected to be between 1-2 inches, though a few
  isolated locations may see as much as 3-4 inches if there is a
  prolonged period of heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 306 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

All eyes are currently on the system sitting over AZ into western
NM. The leading edge of the associated trough maintains a good
stream over moisture over much of NM into the combined Panhandles
at this time. Snow has already been falling over NE NM into
Cimarron County in the OK Panhandle and the far northwest Dallam
County around Texline. Sleet has been reported in Dalhart this
night as well, but the precipitation has been mostly rain. The
far western portions of Cimarron and Dallam County are expected to
get a good accumulation of wet heavy snow between now and noon
today, with the heaviest amounts of 6"+ more likely in far western
Cimarron County. There is still a bit of uncertainty as how much
Texline will receive and if they can exceed 5 to 6". Further south
and east of Texline confidence is accumulating snow drops off
dramatically.

As we go into this afternoon the associated H7 low is progged to
position itself over the central to southern AZ/NM stateline. At
the same time the FA is expected to see an up tick H7 positive
theta-e advection from the south this afternoon into the overnight
hours. This will play a role in precipitation chances increasing
over central to eastern parts of the combined Panhandles. Also, it
may even advect warmer air between H85 and H7 to the northwestern
Panhandles leading to a sharp cutoff from impactful snowfall and
rain. Quite a bit of uncertainty remains as to how far east
accumulating snowfall make it especially before noon today.

By tomorrow morning into the early parts of the afternoon the H7
low is progged to be over the western third of the FA causing the
H7 moisture to push into the eastern portions of the combine
Panhandles by the afternoon hours. Negative theta-e advection
advection coming into the area on the southern periphery of the
low will kill overall precipitation chances for the central to
southwestern combined Panhandles on Fri leaving the heavier
rainfall in the northeastern Panhandles potentially through Fri
evening. Depending on the track of the low wrap around moisture
may still bring some additional snow/rain to the northwestern and
northern combined Panhandles into early Fri night but
precipitation should become light compared to today and tonight.
The drier air coming in from the west as this low moves into the
Panhandles may potentially drop temperature Fri afternoon into the
lower 30s well before sunset. Again precipitation becomes less
likely then with little to no concern for winter weather further
south in the central to southern TX Panhandle. Friday night the
western two stacks of counties are expected to fall to or below
freezing. Have a low of 34 for now in Amarillo but this could
potentially fall to around 32 with the first freeze of the year
for the airport out here on the east side of Amarillo.

36

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Zonal flow aloft will bring a very benign stretch of weather to the
Panhandles, starting a gradual warming trend this weekend into next
week. Ensembles agree a drier air mass holds in place, providing
little to no appreciable precipitation chances through the long term
period. We could see some breezier days mid next week when models
show an open wave could graze the Panhandles as it slides across the
central Plains. Temperatures will warm near to slightly above
seasonal averages each day, with forecast highs reaching the 70s for
many southern locations Tuesday. Guidance then look to drop a weak
front through the area on Wednesday, cooling us back down to 50s and
60s. Overnight lows will continue to be chilly, with freezes
possible in west-northwest parts of the CWA each morning.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

A very messy TAF period is in store for the combined OK/TX
Panhandles as an upper level pressure system brings plenty of
moisture in terms of precipitation chances, low clouds, and
potentially fog to the region. North winds will be breezy and
gusty at times with speeds around 18 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30
kts. Precipitation at KDHT should stay pretty much all rain while
heavy snow falls to the west and northwest. Some thunder may be
possible especially later in the period after 18Z, and primarily
for KGUY/KAMA eastward.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                50  39  48  34 /  80 100  90  20
Beaver OK                  52  39  48  37 /  50  90 100  50
Boise City OK              39  32  37  30 /  90 100 100  50
Borger TX                  52  41  49  35 /  70 100 100  30
Boys Ranch TX              49  38  45  33 /  90 100  90  20
Canyon TX                  50  40  48  31 /  80 100  90  10
Clarendon TX               53  43  54  38 /  80 100 100  20
Dalhart TX                 44  34  41  28 /  90 100 100  30
Guymon OK                  48  37  44  33 /  70 100 100  50
Hereford TX                49  39  47  32 /  90 100  80  10
Lipscomb TX                53  40  51  37 /  50  90 100  40
Pampa TX                   51  40  50  35 /  70 100 100  30
Shamrock TX                56  43  56  38 /  60 100 100  30
Wellington TX              57  46  59  39 /  70 100 100  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for TXZ001.

     Flood Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for
     TXZ005-010-014-015-018>020-317.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ006.

OK...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...36