Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
895 FXUS64 KAMA 142333 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 633 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the Panhandles in multiple rounds through the afternoon and early evening. - Slightly above normal temperatures and breezy conditions set to return Wednesday and Thursday && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Subtropical moisture transport at 700mb-500mb continue to favor shower and isolate thunderstorm development along the periphery of the upper level high pressure system this afternoon. Showers have been training to an extent from eastern NM into the southwest Panhandles, and now extends up to the eastern OK Panhandle. Most locations are only reporting a few hundreths of an inch with this activity, but some of the heavier convective showers/storms may produce pockets over 0.50". This activity should shift northwest through the day as dry air starts to impinge from the southeast. The northwest zones may see lingering shower activity into the evening based on the slower evolution of this dry air. In any case, all areas should start to dry out going into tomorrow morning with decreasing cloud cover. Temperatures will likely reach the low 80s tomorrow afternoon (NBM 50th percentile right at 80 for several locations across the Panhandles) with a notable uptick in southwest winds as the upper ridge amplifies slightly with fairly stout trough moving east over UT. Gusts over 35 mph are most favored across the far northwest and north central zones where surface pressure falls will be the greatest. Ward && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The upper level trough previously mentioned will lift out over the northern plains on Thursday as high pressure shifts over the Southeast CONUS. Surface lee cyclogenesis over the Front Range into the Raton Mesa region will help drive pressure falls across the area and support even stronger winds on Thursday. Current NBM/Ensemble probabilities are showing 10% to 20% chance for 45mph or greater wind gusts for ASOS sites Thursday afternoon. The good news in that surface moisture should be high enough to keep fire weather concerns at a minimum (but with 30-60 day rainfall deficits climbing in some areas, fire starts are becoming more of an issue on windy and even marginally dry days). With the subtropical moisture plume shifting back over the area Thursday, models are starting to hint at some shower activity or perhaps even a thunderstorm with some jet dynamics in play. Kept NBM PoPs for now, which keeps most areas around 10 to 20% for 0.01" through 06z Friday. A cold front should arrive at some point Friday, with much cooler overnight lows being progged for Friday night (low to mid 40s for some areas). The overall pattern looks more progressive going into next week with potentially stronger cold fronts, more wind, and not much in the way of precip. Ward && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR conditions expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds out of the south and southwest of 5-15 kts through 12-15Z will increase afterwards to 10-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts at times through the end of the TAF period with mostly clear skies. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...29