151
FXUS64 KAMA 150436
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1036 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 148 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Rain has a high chance (>90%) of occurring early next week.
Thunderstorms has a low chance (20%) of occurring during this
time.

Temperatures have a very high chance (95%) of remaining well
above normal through Saturday. Then the temperatures have a high
chance (90%) of becoming below normal by mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 148 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

A ridge across south central CONUS continues its eastward push
towards south eastern CONUS today through Saturday. As this
occurs a large scale trough moves onshore across western CONUS.
This trough has a very high chance (90%) of continuing to deepen
during this time with the axis reaching all the way down into
northern Mexico. This pattern will cause gusty southerly winds
across the southern plains that strengthen for the next several
days. These winds bring in warmer air across the panhandles
through Saturday. The winds combined with subsident heating of
the ridge will lead to well above normal temperatures. Lastly
the general lack of moisture will allow for sunny skies unmarred
by clouds.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 148 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

The start of next week has a high chance (80%) for a large scale
trough over western CONUS to split into a progressive trough in
the northern Great Plains and a low pressure system over the
desert SW. The southern low pressure weather system stays
progressive ejecting northeastward out of the desert SW across the
southern plains late Sunday into early Monday. As the weather
system does this it will draw up gulf moisture across TX into the
combined panhandles. The moisture combined with the dynamics and
instability of the weather system has a very high chance (>90%)
of causing precipitation across much of the panhandles. This will
see rain start in the southern panhandles that spreads to the
north early on Sunday. The current trajectory of the weather
system has better odds than not to keep the panhandles in the warm
sector to wrap around sector of the precipitation. These sectors
currently favor a more steady form of precipitation rather than
convective showers. The current analysis of instability indicates
that it remains marginal so the chance of embedded thunderstorms
remains low (20%). Overall temperatures during the passage of the
system has a very high chance (90%) of keeping the precipitation
as rain across the panhandles. As for amounts, 1 inch of rain has
over 80% chance of occurring in the SE panhandles with the this
chance dropping to 40% in the NW panhandle. For the high end
amounts the SE panhandles has a 40% chance of seeing 2 inches or
more of rainfall. This shows well the NW to SE gradient of rain
across the panhandles with SE expected to see high amounts and the
NW less amounts of rainfall. The system and associated rainfall
eject NE out of the southern plains during the afternoon hours.
This would cause the rain to end SW to NE during the afternoon to
evening hours of Monday. The temperatures during the passage of
this system drops to seasonable to somewhat below seasonable. Even
colder air arrives in the panhandles for Tuesday and Wednesday
driving the temperatures to well below normal. These below normal
temperatures could prove significant, as there is about equal
chances that another weather system forms over the mountainous
west and transits the southern plains during this time. If this
system forms then the moisture associated with it can cause
snowfall across much of the panhandles. There is a large spread
on potential snow amounts and location of snowfall lending little
confidence in trying to pick out an accurate number for any spot.
The other half of possible solutions is that this follow up
system doesn`t materialize thus no further precipitation occurs.
So current confidence is that snowfall occurring is even chances
while more impactful snowfall has less chances of occurring the
not occurring. This potential snowfall will be monitored closely
as it could prove to be the most impactful part of the whole
weather event next week.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals over the next 24 hrs.
Skies will remain mostly clear throughout the period, and winds
will be sustained around 10-20kts this afternoon and evening with
higher gusts at times.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                71  40  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  72  37  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              64  31  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  72  41  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              76  38  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  70  38  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               71  40  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 72  33  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  71  32  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                70  38  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                71  42  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   71  42  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                70  40  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              72  40  70  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...38