995
FXUS64 KAMA 011819
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
119 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms remain possible this afternoon and
  evening with passage of a cold front.

- Cooler and drier temperatures look to follow behind the front
  Friday.

- Warmer and drier conditions look follow this weekend and next
  week with the return of high pressure.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

As of this afternoon, present radar and satellite were seeing the
close low system continue to make its way across the Panhandles,
which has put most of the area under strong subsidence. This
subsidence has resulted in more stable conditions this afternoon
which has kept showers and activity limited. Still present radar
has seen some of the moisture that has been following this low
wrap around which has resulted in the far edges of the Western and
Northern Panhandles to receive some showers during the morning
hours. This activity is likely to continue through the afternoon
with CAMs expecting the low to break down into more of an upper-
level trough. As this process is occurring many of the CAMs expect
a cold front to push in from the north later this evening and
force the ongoing storms to spread across the Panhandles through
the late night hours. There are some limitations to this however,
with the primary being the front itself. Given the still high
amounts of subsidence still present in the area most storms will
struggle to survive without the support of the front. This means
that storms will only last for as long as the front remains
present, which latest CAM runs are saying might not be for very
long. Still any storm that do move in will have the potential to
produce heavy rainfall, which can pose a flooding threat for areas
that have already seen a lot of rainfall this week. Regardless,
the passage of this front will mark a turn towards quieter and
cooler weather for the Panhandles. Look for afternoon high
temperatures Friday to only reach the mid 60s while low
temperatures that morning could be drop as low as the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A full break down of the trough continues to trend by Saturday
with most models agreeing to a new upper-level ridge slowly
building into an upper-level high pressure system across the
Western United States this weekend. With the high building, most
models see the Panhandles returning to much drier conditions with
chances of precipitation dropping below 10 percent for both days.
This pattern looks to continue into next week with present model
agreement seeing the high hold through Monday. By Tuesday, models
do suggest that high can break down in favor or a weak trough
pushing through. However, chances of precipitation are not looking
too great with current ensembles only giving us around 10 to 15
percent chance that evening. Regardless this system looks to be
short lived with most models seeing a new ridge build in by
Wednesday. As for temperatures, cooler weather does look to hold
for at least one more day with Saturday seeing highs in the mid to
upper 70s and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s that morning. Beyond
that, however, a warming trend does look to follow with afternoon
highs heating back into the mid to upper 80s for the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

As of this afternoon, present radar has seen subsidence winning
out with showers and thunderstorms staying out of the Panhandles.
However, this activity has result in some low cloud decks present
across all the terminals that has seen CIGs dip in and out of
MVFR conditions this afternoon. By this evening present CAMs are
still expecting a cold front to push in which will see the start
of isolated to scattered storms across the area that may impact
the terminals through the late night hours. At this time primary
concern for any storm will be more on the reduce visibility from
moderate to heavy rainfall, but occasional lightning can`t be
ruled out either. Regardless, look of this cloud cover to hold
through the overnight with potential to briefly see CIGs drop to
IFR levels.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11