147
FXUS64 KAMA 281741
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1141 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

-Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
 from Sunday through Tuesday for portions of the Panhandles.

-Small chance for rain, mainly for the eastern Panhandles on
 Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Stagnant flow aloft due to lax height gradient aloft will keep
general weather conditions dry throughout the short term forecast
period. Southwest surface winds of 10-20 mph will become more
light and variable by tomorrow. This will result in warmer high
temperatures today vs a slight cool down for tomorrow. High
temperatures today will range from the upper 60s in the NW to near
80 in the SE TX Panhandle. High temperatures tomorrow will range
from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Latest 28/00Z model and numerical data continues to show an H500
perturbation with associated low pressure system will move across
the southern/central High Plains on Sunday. Compared to ensemble
member 24-36 hours ago, an accord to the center track of the low
pressure system has been show from the latest data with the
consensus showing the track now into western and central Kansas.
This will mainly result in a brief period of showers for the
central and eastern Panhandles before the main moisture transport
quickly shifts east into Oklahoma and central Kansas where rain
chances are much higher. Will have to watch for fire weather
conditions that will continue into Monday and Tuesday, with more
discussion of these potential hazards in the fire weather section.
A Pacific front will help to scatter any residual sfc moisture by
late Sunday afternoon, further diminishing our rain chances. High
temperatures on Sunday will remain above average.

A more pronounced sinusoidal synoptic pattern will take place
across the southern CONUS. In particular on Tuesday, with the set
up of the synoptic flow aloft, in-conjunction with a surface cold
front moving south on the backside of the main H500 wave will
provide several chances of windy conditions. Starting on Tuesday,
steepening height gradients from approaching H500 gradient will
help established some potentially strong winds with about a
10-20% chance of peak gusts around 60 mph possible for a good
portion of the Panhandles. Some residual winds may linger into
early Wed AM as a cold front moves south and shifts winds from
southwesterly to northerly. Will have to watch trends closely to
see the track of the main synoptic system may impact winds. High
temperatures will generally be near to above average for early
March.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours with winds in the 5 to 10kt range an in varying directions
starting out of the west and coming around the clock to the east,
and going variable around 12z. KAMA may be a bit more breezy from
the 18-00z time period and winds could get up to 15kts. Winds
should be more southerly around 5-10kts at the end of the TAF
period. Skies mostly clear for the TAF period.

Weber

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

We are watching the potential for elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions for portions of the Panhandles Sunday through
Tuesday.

Starting on Sunday, on the backside of the departing low pressure
system, and aided by a Pacific front, breezy 20 ft SSW winds along
with min RH values around 20 percent, elevated fire weather
conditions will be possible for the central and western
Panhandles with max RFTI values around 2. ERC values will range
from the 70-85th percentile.

On Monday, warmer temperatures well into the 70s are expected as
an established H850 thermal gradient advects into the Panhandles.
With diurnally driven breezy winds with min RH values dropping
into the mid teens along with ERC values increasing to the 75th to
near 89th percentile, elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions expected, especially in the western Panhandles.

On Tuesday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
expected, based mainly on strong winds. Continued abundance of
cured fuels along with stronger winds with gusts of 50-60 mph
possible out of the west and low RH values around 20 percent will
result in more widespread fire weather conditions. With a cold
front moving through, wind shifts Tuesday evening from
southwesterly to northerly winds will be expected as well.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                73  35  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  73  30  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              67  29  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  75  35  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              73  32  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  72  35  69  39 /   0   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               76  38  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 70  29  67  34 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  70  29  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                71  34  70  40 /   0   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                73  35  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   73  35  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                77  36  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              77  38  70  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...89