519
FXUS64 KAMA 201150
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
650 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Continued chances for precipitation are expected through the whole
short term period, as northwest flow carries on over the area. The
upper level high begins it`s slow transition eastward this week,
but the next couple of days will not see it`s effects. Instead, a
cold front will allow further rain chances Saturday into Sunday.
Meanwhile, temperatures should drop from 90`s on Saturday to 80`s
on Sunday.

Today, highs remain near average despite the northerly surface
winds in place through much of the day. By the evening hours,
another round of storms should impact our CWA from the northwest.
Even after tonight`s system passes through, the environment should
recover enough to allow for strong to severe storms once again in
our area. Pockets of strong instability (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg)
coupled with modest (25-35 kt) 0-6 km bulk shear should be
sufficient enough for storms to grow upscale and sustain
themselves in the High Plains. The northwest Panhandles show areas
of 1600-1800 J/kg DCAPE, suggesting the potential for damaging
wind gusts to occur as storms transition away from the mountains.
Hail will also be possible with storms that can develop robust
updrafts. On the flooding side, PWAT values remain high above 1.2
inches for today. Any storm that develops could pose flooding
issues, especially if a strong storm can stay on top of low lying
areas or places that have already received abundant rainfall from
previous days. Storm mode will be more scattered compared to what
we have received tonight. A supercell or two is also possible with
the onset of convection this evening. Afterwards, storms should
become multicellular and may even congeal to form clusters as they
become more elevated in the night.

Tomorrow, persistent northerly winds, coupled with increased
cloud coverage and rain chances, will help drive temperatures down
by about 10 degrees for many places across the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. Low to upper 80`s are expected. As previously
mentioned, showers and thunderstorms should move into our area by
the late afternoon and last through the night. Currently, the
western Panhandles are favored to receive the bulk of this
precipitation, but chances still exist for zones to the east. A
few storms may become strong again, and their severe potential
will depend on the recovery of the atmosphere after Saturday`s
event.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The last couple of days for northwest flow are at the forefront of
the extended period. Afterwards, the pattern shifts to become more
northerly; and by the end of the week, long range models suggest
that we move to a more quiet pattern as the upper level ridge
settles in.

Seasonal highs are forecast throughout the week, with slowly
rising 850mb temperatures indicating that the coming days will
steadily become warmer. Below average highs are anticipated for
Monday and perhaps even Tuesday; but afterwards, the low to upper
90`s return. After Monday, rain chances also fall off for the
coming days. Currently, most PoPs in the extended are restricted
to our western zones, and will not be synoptically driven.
Instead, small scale features, day time heating, or mountain
initiated convection will be the means necessary to provide
thunderstorm activity within our CWA.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

MVFR conditions have developed at DHT, but they are expected to
erode within the next hour or two. Elsewhere, VFR conditions
prevail conditionally through the rest of the period. Confidence
in thunderstorms this evening has increased for the DHT and AMA
terminals. A PROB30 group has been added to both site for the
incoming impacts. DHT should see thunderstorms earlier than AMA,
occurring around 00Z as opposed to AMA`s 03Z. After 06Z,
thunderstorm chances fall off for both sites and conditions should
remain calm for the rest of the period.

No mentions of thunder have been made for GUY due to the lower
probabilities, but amendments will be made if we see conditions
change. By the end of the period, low ceilings may settle in
according to the latest model runs. However, these conditions may
not occur until after the 12Z period, so flight rule changes have
not been made.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                94  67  85  63 /  20  30  50  50
Beaver OK                  89  64  85  60 /  10  20  10  10
Boise City OK              89  60  80  58 /  20  40  60  40
Borger TX                  98  68  90  65 /  20  30  30  40
Boys Ranch TX              96  66  85  62 /  20  40  50  50
Canyon TX                  93  65  83  62 /  30  40  50  50
Clarendon TX               94  67  85  65 /  20  30  30  30
Dalhart TX                 92  62  82  58 /  20  30  60  50
Guymon OK                  90  62  83  60 /  10  20  20  30
Hereford TX                95  65  84  62 /  20  40  60  60
Lipscomb TX                92  65  86  63 /  20  20  10  10
Pampa TX                   92  65  85  62 /  20  30  30  30
Shamrock TX                95  66  87  64 /  30  50  20  20
Wellington TX              97  67  89  65 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55