705
FXUS64 KAMA 072317
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
517 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions are causing critical fire
  weather conditions this afternoon across the west to central
  Panhandles.


- Below average temperatures settle in next week, with low to
  moderate chances for winter precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

A lee trough couple with increasing pressure gradient from an
upper level weather system is causing windy conditions across the
western portions of the panhandles. These winds are bringing in
much drier downsloping air across the western panhandles. As this
air downslope it is warming significantly which is helping to
make it even drier. These windy conditions coupled with the
dryness is causing the ongoing the critical fire weather
conditions that are plaguing the western panhandles. In the
eastern panhandles the extensive fog and low clouds of this
morning have kept conditions far colder and moister. This is
preventing the stronger winds from readily mixing down thus
curtailing the eastern progression of the warm and dry air. Once
the winds weaken this evening the critical fire conditions will
come to an end. The weather will remain active as the cold front
associated with the upper level weather system will arrive during
early Saturday morning. This will bring a return of gusty winds
across the panhandles during and following its passage. However
this front will bring in colder air which will cause the RH to be
higher which prevents much of the fire weather concerns. No real
moisture is associated with this front so it will be dry and not
bring any precipitation chances to the panhandles.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Sunday will have a high chance of seeing cold air streaming across
the southern plains causing much colder conditions across the
panhandles. This will see the temperatures go a little below
normal for Sunday. There is a high chance that dry air will still
be present over the panhandles on Sunday keeping the weather dry
and fair. There is a low chance (30%) that some moisture will push
into at least the eastern and northern portions of the panhandles
on Monday. If this moisture arrives it may lead to mainly rain
showers. However the temperatures will have a high chance of being
near freezing if just above freezing so mixed winter precipitation
cannot be ruled out.

Then come Monday night into Tuesday a there is a moderate chance
for a weather system to bring a reinforcing push of cold air.
This will see the temperatures fall well below normal for both
Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture has a moderate chance (40-70%) of
arriving in the panhandles with this weather system leading to
another round of precipitation. As temperatures have a moderate
chance of being near to below freezing the most likely form of
precipitation is either snow or a wintry mix. The overall moisture
quality is still uncertain so exact amounts of snowfall are hard
to pin down at this time. So be sure to check the latest forecast
for updated snow potential as this system arrives.

The weather system has a moderate chance of departing the
panhandles by Thursday bring replaced by a upper level ridge. This
would bring drier and warmer weather to the panhandles to close
out the work week. How long this period of calmer weather will
last is still uncertain as the larger scale pattern seems more
conducive for continued active weather over calm weather.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

VFR conditions expected at the three terminals over the next 24
hours. The main take away will be the potential for some LLWS at
KDHT and KGUY especially when the surface winds decouple. A stout
low level jet of 40 to maybe 45 kts around 1k to 1.5k feet is
expected to impact these two terminals during the overnight
period, through about 12Z. Gusty winds should subside with the
setting of the sun but will still be about 10 to 12 kts out of the
southwest. After 12Z a cold front is expected to bring winds to
the north and pick back up to around 20 kts during the latter
parts of this TAF period.

36

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Solidly critical fire weather conditions are occurring today
across the western to central Panhandles this afternoon into the
evening. Winds are out of the southwest sustained at 20-30 mph
with higher gusts up to 40 mph possible. Very dry air is dropping
dew pts and minimum relative humidity values into single digits.
RFTIs of 4 to even 8 could have been observed in the TX panhandle,
with these areas remaining susceptible to fire starts and spread.

98

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                45  60  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  31  52  19  41 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              31  51  17  41 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  43  59  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              41  59  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  44  63  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               45  63  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 36  55  18  43 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  32  51  17  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                44  67  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                37  55  22  41 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   43  59  22  44 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                41  62  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              41  64  26  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ001-002-
     006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...36