284
FXUS64 KAMA 042306
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
506 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 219 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

- Dry conditions and near to just above average high temperatures
  are forecast for the Panhandles each day through Sunday.

- Colder temperatures are likely early next week with a low chance
  (around 20 percent) for wintry precipitation for portions of the
  Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Large scale subsidence at the crest of an H500 ridge still sits
atop the Panhandles today, and is expected to stick around through
tomorrow. Quiet weather will persist as a result, and a slight
cool down will take place tonight-tomorrow in the wake of a weak
cold front moving through the Panhandles this afternoon. Forecast
highs tomorrow are in the upper 40s to low 50s, with mostly sunny
skies and winds turning out of the south at 10-20 mph. Good
radiational cooling overnight will help lows drop down in the
upper 20s to low 50s for the next couple of nights.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Get ready for a warming trend to cap off the work week and kick
off the weekend, with highs in the 60s returning area wide by
Sunday. Models show the ridge of high pressure gradually being
displaced by a developing upper level low to our west, which is
set to eject across the southern Plains this weekend. The
projected track of this system continually takes it too far south
to bring much of any precipitation to the Panhandles. However,
some guidance such as the NAM and ECMWF hint that very modest
Theta-e advection may provide some inconsequential light sprinkles
to the southern TX Panhandle Friday into Saturday. The
probability of any measurable rain is currently less than 10%.

Our next significant cool down is slated for early next week when
a cold front will drop over the area. As the aforementioned low
departs, another upper trough/low is progged to approach the
region from the Pacific NW. The resulting cold air advection will
push temperatures to the 40s and 50s by Monday, dropping lows in
the teens and 20s overnight. A slight uptick of moisture content
will arrive in tandem with this disturbance, providing at least
some low precipitation chances for portions of the area (<30% POPs
across the western Panhandles). Given the colder temperature
profiles forecast when any moisture arrives Mon night into Tue,
snow would be the most likely precipitation type.

Investigating the extent of snow potential, much of the latest
guidance depict a positively tilted, open wave trough, although
there`s much disagreement amongst long range models. Typically,
these types of systems tend to favor lighter, less impactful
snowfall totals for the Panhandles. Uncertainty remains quite
high, but trends aren`t overly positive, especially considering
that deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS are generally
outliers within their own ensemble data sets. Even if snow pans
out to be on the more aggressive end of the spectrum, there is
only about a 10% probability for snow totals to exceed 1-3 inches.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 353 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals for the next 24
hours. There is only the slimmest chance that fog may form in the
northern panhandles during the morning hours. North winds this
evening become light overnight before becoming southerly for
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                31  50  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  26  46  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              26  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  31  53  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              29  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  30  51  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               32  49  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 26  51  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  25  50  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                31  53  31  55 /   0   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                28  46  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   31  49  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                31  48  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              32  49  26  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98