732
FXUS64 KAMA 161754
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1254 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

- A new system is expected to bring chances of showers and
  thunderstorms tonight and Friday evening with a low potential
  for thunderstorms to be strong to severe.

- Drier and cooler weather is expected this weekend with potential
  for lows to drop into the mid 30s Saturday night into Sunday
  morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Mid to upper level troughing is expanding from the Great Plains to
the West Coast while a ridge is centered over the Mississippi River
Valley. The FA is currently under the far western periphery of the
ridge. Southwest flow on the leading edge of the trough,
currently working into the western FA, and is bringing some
moisture with it. GOES water vapor imagery shows a sharp cutoff
of this moisture trailing behind the moisture stream on the base
of the trough. This dry air will be moving in late tonight into
tomorrow morning.

For now, the moisture advection occurring overhead is expected to
combine with the right entrance region of a H5 jet streak, leading
to some shower and thunderstorm chances early this evening. Less
than 20 percent chance exist in the far western combined Panhandles
late this afternoon/early evening, with higher chances after sunset.
Pops exist for mainly the central to western combined Panhandles
where the better jet dynamics lie. Further east in the Panhandles
mostly dry conditions are expected tonight. Models hint at some
instability allowing for thunder this evening. MLCAPE values range
from a couple hundred to 500 J/Kg. Of course the NAM is more
aggressive with MLCAPE values as high as 1100 J/Kg, mainly along the
NM/TX state line. If some of these higher CAPE values can be
realized, would not rule out an isolated severe storm or two with
hail sizes ranging between a quarter and ping pong ball size hail as
bulk shear is progged to be around 25 to 30 kts. However, the
general consensus is that instability will be modes with some
capping in place this evening leaving some chance for a strong storm
or two but mainly just general thunderstorms.

Tonight into early tomorrow morning, the dry slot will move into the
western combined Panhandles. A surface trough will bring in some
lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes. Also, dry air will
move into the west early under this trough, dropping Tds from the
40s and 50s to around 20 or less. With clear skies, calm winds, and
dry air, the northwest is expected to have a morning low in 40s for
the northwest combined Panhandles. Trailing this surface trough will
be some slightly cooler H85 temperatures as well tomorrow. This is
expected to create a decent temperature gradient across the combined
Panhandles. The progged high for Kenton is around 72 and progged
high for Wellington is around 86 for Friday afternoon. Depending on
how quickly this system progresses some showers and thunderstorms
may be possible late tomorrow for the far eastern combined
Panhandles. Only a 20 to 30 percent chance exist, mainly in the
eastern stack of counties in the Panhandles. If the dry slot
moves all the way into the eastern Panhandles quicker than
expected, those 20 to 30 pops could go down to zero.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the
area limiting afternoon temperatures ever so slightly. The real
cooling won`t be until overnight when radiational cooling under
clear skies and calm winds knock temperatures well into the 30s and
40s. The northwestern combined Panhandles even has a potential to
see temperatures fall below 36 bringing some concerns for frost.
Fall like temperatures in the 70s expected Sunday afternoon. Not too
cool of a temperature as winds quickly return to the southwest.
Then, as this Sat/Sun system leaves, ridging will build back in with
afternoon temperatures returning to the 80s across the board on
Monday.

The next cold front is expected Monday night, which will cool temps
down for Tuesday. Tue afternoon, temps are currently progged to only
reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Outside of these roller coaster
temperatures the long term looks to remain dry and rain free.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18Z TAF period.
However, there is a chance for KDHT to be impacted by some showers
and thunderstorms between 03Z and 06Z Friday. Probabilities for
impacts to KGUY and KAMA are low enough to leave out of the TAFs
at this time. Winds will continue to gust upwards of 30 kts until
about 00Z Fri when whens should start to subside.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36