557
FXUS64 KAMA 302331
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
631 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Clouds have lingered across the Oklahoma and northern Texas
panhandles from the early morning convection. This has kept
conditions much cooler up there with temperatures reaching the lower
to mid 70s in the Oklahoma Panhandle and some lower 80s in northern
Texas Panhandle. Further south, the stalled front from yesterday is
quite evident on satellite imagery. It is located roughly along a
line from Nara Vista to Panhandle to Allison.  Residual cloud debris
has left conditions cooler to the north of this line, whereas along
and south temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s. Cumulus
development has been ongoing through the early afternoon along and
south of the boundary and in the last hour or so, some showers and
storms have developed in the eastern Panhandle across portions of
Gray and Wheeler counties. At this point, we are not expecting these
to become severe but this will be something to monitor this evening.
Storms that occur this afternoon should diminish by sunset with
convection not expected to linger overnight.

Global models are in agreement that the mid level ridge should once
again meander its way toward the region, but remain centered just to
our east. This will allow us to have the effects of the increasing
temperatures but still open the door to some brief relief in spots
due to showers and storms. Temperatures tomorrow should approach the
century mark but many locations likely will far short. Of course,
this won`t apply to places like Palo Duro Canyon, which should see
temperatures exceed 100 degrees but currently falling short of Heat
Advisory level. To our west, an upper trough will approach, bringing
showers and storms to New Mexico. By late afternoon, several models
and hi-res CAMs indicate that they could meander across the state
line into my western forecast area, especially as the low level jet
begins to kick in during the evening hours. Have included low/slight
chance POPs in the forecast to account for this potential.

Culin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The upper right will begin to shift back to the east during the day
Tuesday. Low level winds will shift out of the southwest, increasing
low level temperatures on Tuesday to near 40C. This will equate to
highs in the low 100s across much of the region.  Will be watching
out for potential Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon especially on
Tuesday as temperatures will exceed 105 degrees in this location. It
looks like the heat peaks on Tuesday as another front shifts south
toward the Panhandles starting Tuesday night. This will increase our
rain chances Tuesday afternoon/night through the week. As it stands,
we are under a marginal risk for severe storms Tuesday. With such
hot temperatures in place Tuesday afternoon, any storm that develops
would have potential to bring damaging wind gusts given forecast
DCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg.

Another front looks to drop south for Thursday night into Friday,
remaining in the area for Saturday and keeping rain chances in the
forecast during this time period. Since this is a holiday week, and
many outdoor activities are in play, residents should keep aware of
the weather situation heading through the week as there are daily
chances for rain and storms in the forecast. Severity will be
assessed through the week but would assume there will be potential
during this time period.

Culin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will be sustained out of the southwest at 10 to
20 kts with higher gusts at times, especially Monday afternoon.
Skies will be mostly clear throughout the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74  97  75 101 /   0  10  10  10
Beaver OK                  72  99  76 101 /  10  10  10  10
Boise City OK              69  95  70  95 /  10  20  20  20
Borger TX                  77 102  78 106 /   0  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              72  99  75 102 /   0  10  10  10
Canyon TX                  72  96  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
Clarendon TX               74  97  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
Dalhart TX                 69  97  70  99 /   0  20  20  20
Guymon OK                  70  99  74  99 /  10  10  10  20
Hereford TX                72  98  73 101 /   0  10  10  10
Lipscomb TX                74  99  77 103 /  10  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   73  98  75 101 /   0  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                75 100  75 103 /   0  10  10   0
Wellington TX              75 100  76 103 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...29