Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
379 FXUS64 KAMA 101747 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1247 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Wednesday across the Panhandles. Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding and a few storms may be strong to severe. - Near average high temperatures are forecast each afternoon over the next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 A complex of storms in Colorado is finally starting to move east this morning. These storms have pushed out an outflow boundary that is nearly to the OK Panhandle early this morning. Showers or isolated storms may develop across the Panhandles tonight due to the outflow boundaries moving south across the area. An upper level trough is forecast to move east during the daytime hours. The base of this trough should move across the southern High Plains late this afternoon through Monday morning. Before the trough moves over, a front should move south across the area and temperatures will be much cooler with potentially a 20 degree temperature gradient from northwest to southeast this afternoon. Plentiful moisture will be in place throughout the column and with outflow boundaries and a weak front in the vicinity of the Panhandles, there will be many potential convective initiation areas to watch for today. PWAT values are forecast to be around or above the 75th percentile this evening so heavy rainfall will be possible with any showers or storms. Rainfall totals over an inch will certainly be possible, especially for areas that storms potentially train over. With that being said, flooding or flash flooding will be possible for localized areas. Additionally, storms during the afternoon into the evening may become strong to severe with sufficient instability across the area. Most of the activity should be over by sunrise on Monday morning. The CWA on Monday will be located at the base of the trough so temperatures will be a bit cooler along with cloudy skies. PVA associated with the trough should generate more showers and storms Monday afternoon into the overnight hours. Just how much is able to develop on Monday remains uncertain as it may depend on how long convection lasts on Monday morning. If the latest model guidance solutions pan out, additional heavy rain will be possible along with strong to severe storms. Given the uncertainty, have left the NBM PoPs which are upwards of 60-70 percent. Storms should gradually dissipate late Monday night if they are able to develop across the area on Monday afternoon/evening. Muscha && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 H500 low pressure may remain just to the north of the Panhandles on Tuesday. Some models even indicate the low pressure system remaining over the area on Tuesday. With some models keeping the low to the north, there may be PVA rounding the base of the low to generate some showers or storms across the area on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With some instability being shown in forecast soundings, cannot rule out a strong storm or moderate to heavy rain if any showers or storms develop across the area. Broad ridging due to a high pressure system setting up across the southeastern CONUS looks to prevail with another trough digging across the western US. Mostly dry conditions are expected during this time frame but there is plenty of mid level moisture remaining across the region so cannot rule out isolated to scattered afternoon storms if convective temperatures can be reached or subtle disturbances move over the Plains. Muscha && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 VFR conditions to start off, with MVFR/IFR conditions possible due to showers and storms at all TAF sites generally from 00z-12z. KAMA will be more in the 0-06z time frame, and KDHT/KGUY will be more in the 03-12z time frame. Winds generally out of the east to southeast 10-15kts at KAMA and KDHT, with northerly winds mainly out of KGUY. PROB30s currently set up for storms, but will try to bring more prevailing groups with 00z TAFs if confidence increases on timing. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...89