668
FNUS71 KALY 171755
FWSALY

Spot Forecast for Apple Orchard...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Albany NY
155 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at alb.stormreport@noaa.gov, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
*SPS for elevated risk of fire spread in effect for the Hudson
 Valley and Catskills Today*

Today, RH values drop as low as 20-30% this afternoon, with the
lowest RH values in the Hudson Valley. Winds will not be as
strong as the past few days, but gusts of 20-25 mph are expected
for much of the region, with some locally higher gusts to near
30 mph possible around the Capital District tomorrow afternoon.
While state partners in CT and MA have confirmed that fuels are
not yet receptive, the NYS DEC has confirmed that fuels in the
Hudson Valley and Catskills have dried out enough from the
rainfall earlier in the week to warrant and SPS for today. We
have also coordinated with BTV to determine that an SPS will not
be needed for southern VT based on the fact that this are saw
more upslope precip yesterday. Winds Thursday night should
quickly become light and variable after sunset, with RH values
recovering to 60-80% overnight.

On Friday, minimum RH values should not be as low as Thursday
with 30-45% expected. Southerly winds will be increasing during
the afternoon, with gusts of 15-25 mph developing, but the
strongest gusts may not occur until later in the day when RH
values are beginning to recover. Additionally, there could be a
few showers around Friday afternoon, especially north of I-90.
Therefore, it appears conditions will not be quite as conducive
for fire spread compared to Thursday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 12 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 28 to 29 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (127200 knot-ft).

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   3   3   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0
Temp............47  52  52  52
RH..............27  22  21  20
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..13  13  12  12
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25  23
Mix hgt (kft)...5.1 5.5 5.7 5.3
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.29  29  29  28
Vrate kt-ft/1K..128 137 139 127
Ventrate Cat....VGD VGD VGD VGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 28.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph with gusts to around
                    20 mph early in the evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 24 mph shifting to the west 8
                    to 13 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (91400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........7            15           3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
Temp............51           39           31
RH..............24           46           69
20 FT wind......NW 9G20      NW 1G8       N 0G2
Mix hgt (ft)....3900         500          600
Transport wind..NW 24        NW 12        W 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..91           2            5
Ventrate Cat....GOOD         POOR         POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph with
                    gusts to around 23 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 23
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (62800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........17           M            67
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            10
Temp............29           47           60
RH..............72           42           32
20 FT wind......N 0G2        SW 3G7       S 8G18
Mix hgt (ft)....600          2400         3300
Transport wind..W 7          SW 15        SW 22
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2            35           63
Ventrate Cat....POOR         POOR         GOOD

$$
Forecaster...JPV
Requested by...LR Silvia
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2510743.1/ALY
.DELDT 04/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lindsay.r.silvia@usda.gov