777
FNUS71 KALY 041915
FWSALY

Spot Forecast for Sunny Brook Fire...CT DEEP
National Weather Service Albany NY
215 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 EST on November 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at alb.stormreport@noaa.gov, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Little or no precipitation is expected through Tuesday with a cold
front possibly bringing an isolated shower late Wednesday. While
warmer and breezy conditions are expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday, RH values look to be elevated above 50 percent. Wind
gusts between 20 and 30 mph are possible across some areas both
Tuesday and Wednesday out of the south to southwest.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Dewpoint............39.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (22200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (33900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (EST)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........68  74  77
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1
Temp............51  50  48
Dewpoint........38  38  40
RH..............61  63  74
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6
20 FT wind gust.16  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 2.5 1.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  14  13
LVORI...........1   1   3
Haines index....4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..34  30  22
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Dewpoint............42 increasing to 46 overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southwest 5 to 7
                    mph overnight.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............6.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........80     82     79     82     83     84
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............47     45     45     46     48     49
Dewpoint........40     42     44     45     46     47
RH..............76     89     96     96     93     93
20 ft wind......S 6    S 5    S 5    S 6    SW 7   SW 8
20 ft wind gust.14     14     14     16     17     17
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   600    600    700    700    600
Transport wind..S 12   S 10   S 10   SW 12  SW 13  SW 13
LVORI...........3      4      5      8      8      7
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14     5      5      7      8      7
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Dewpoint............49 increasing to 54 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 20 mph increasing to 16 to 22
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (39100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........73  67  58  49  40  40  40  40  42  45  47  40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............49  50  52  56  59  63  66  67  67  67  64  61
Dewpoint........48  49  51  53  54  55  55  55  56  56  56  56
RH..............96  96  96  90  83  75  68  65  68  68  75  84
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   7   8   9   9   10  9   9   9   9   8   8
20 FT wind gust.17  17  18  20  21  21  21  21  21  22  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  13  16  20  22  22  21  20  18  18  17  16
LVORI...........5   5   5   4   4   3   1   1   1   1   3   3
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5   8   16  26  35  39  39  37  33  27  21  17
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...Rathbun
Requested by...Josh Cingranelli
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2425729.0/ALY
.DELDT 11/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL eric.hughes@usda.gov,josh.cingranelli@ct.gov