624
FXUS61 KALY 081722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow showers and breezy conditions continue through
tomorrow. Dry conditions are in store for Friday. A weather
system off the Atlantic coast could bring light snowfall Friday
night into Saturday across eastern New York and western New
England. Cold temperatures continue through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

- The current Wind Advisory has been expanded to include western
  Albany, western Greene and western Ulster Counties through 1
  AM Thursday for wind gusts reaching up to 50 mph.

- Blustery conditions will make for maximum apparent
  temperatures below zero at elevations of 1000ft and greater
  with single digits to low 10s in valley areas.

12:22 PM EST Update... Minor adjustment to continue to mention
light snow showers across Albany, Rensselaer, and northern
Greene counties through this afternoon as narrow bands of light
snow continues through this afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of
the forecast is doing well and on track for this afternoon. See
previous discussions below for more details.

9:30 AM EST Update...Minor adjustment to hourly temperatures
through this afternoon to reflect current observations, with the
Albany area between 18 and 20 degrees and the Poughkeepsie area
is between 22 and 24 degrees this morning. Winds are still
contributing to having it feel even colder outside. Latest radar
scans shows two narrow bands of light lake effect snow showers.
One is across Schoharie and western Albany county moving
southward into northern Greene county. The other begins in
southern Herkimer into Montgomery county that spans all the way
across northern Albany, western Rensselaer, and into northern
Columbia county. Increased PoPs for these locations as well as
northern Berkshire and Bennington county the next two to three
hours as light snow showers are moving through from north to
south. The rest of the forecast is doing well and on track for
today, see previous discussion below for more details.

.UPDATE...As of 645 AM...The forecast remains in good shape with
this update with only minor adjustments needed to maintain
consistency with latest obs and trends. Lake effect showers
continue this morning in the Eastern Catskills and Helderbergs
as lake effect multi-bands continue to travel south and east off
Lake Ontario. Winds have already begun to pick up out of the
northwest and will continue to do so throughout the day.
Additional details to follow in the previous discussion below.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
We remain engulfed within cyclonic flow about the base of an
upper-level inverted trough extending westward from a potent low
pressure system spinning in the Atlantic south of Greenland.
Between this and a building high in the Plains, a steep pressure
gradient remains, making for continued blustery conditions with
breezy winds and cooler than normal temperatures courtesy of
the inflicted CAA environment. While magnitude of winds has
slackened a bit at the lack of heating, latest obs indicate
speeds remain near 10 to 20 kt with gusts of 15 to near 30 kt at
times. This is especially true for higher terrain areas such as
the Berkshires and Eastern Catskills.

The present flow pattern can also be deemed responsible for the
multi-banded lake effect snow showers currently traversing the
western Mohawk Valley, Helderbergs, and Eastern Catskills with
fast northwest winds enabling the advection of moisture that far
south and east off Lake Ontario. NYS Mesonet cameras in these
areas show light snowfall resulting from these bands, leading to
little in the way of accumulation and little to no impact to
visibility.

Throughout the day today, additional lake effect showers are
possible especially in the higher terrain regions of the
Helderbergs, Eastern Catskills, Southwest Adirondacks and
upslope regions of the Southern Greens and Berkshires. HiRes
guidance has, thus far, not been resolving the multi-bands well
so we went above guidance with PoPs through this evening given
the anticipation of winds remaining northwesterly and increased
forcing with the rotation of a shortwave around the base of the
aforementioned trough.

High temperatures today will reach only single digits in
isolated areas of higher elevation and widespread 10s and low
20s elsewhere. These, paired with sustained winds of 10 to 25
mph and gusts of 30 to 45 mph will make for another day of
blustery conditions. For higher terrain areas of the Eastern
Catskills; Helderbergs; Southern Greens; Berkshires; and
Litchfield Hills, gusts could reach magnitudes of 50 mph.
Therefore, a Wind Advisory will remain in place for these areas
through 1 AM Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions continue through Thursday, though decreased
  magnitudes should negate the need to extend wind advisories.

Strong winds continue into tonight with additional periods of
snow showers as the inverted trough remains in place and it`s
embedded shortwave fully passes through the region. Winds will
begin to diminish, however, not just with the loss of daytime
heating, but the slackening of the antecedent pressure gradient
as the aforementioned low begins to weaken and retrograde
towards Atlantic Canada and the surface high slides farther
east. Low temperatures tonight will remain cooler than normal
with single digits to low/mid 10s. With winds remaining
elevated, especially in the areas under the Wind Advisory
(in effect through 1 AM), wind chills will widely fall below
zero to the low single digits. Highest elevations of the Eastern
Catskills, Southwest Adirondacks, and Southern Greens may
locally reach Cold Advisory criteria, but this would not be
widespread. Therefore, have held off on issuance of Cold
Advisories at this time.

Gusty winds continue Thursday, though the development of a
substantial inversion in the low-levels will mitigate us tapping
into the 45 to 60 kt 850 mb LLJ. Therefore, we do not anticipate
meeting Advisory-level winds Thursday. Periods of snow showers
will continue mainly for the higher terrain with slightly warmer
high temperatures in the 10s to 20s. By Thursday night, high
pressure finally begins to build in across the region, greatly
diminishing winds and forcing dry conditions regionwide. Low
temperatures will be in the single digits to upper 10s.

Tranquil weather continues through Friday with high pressure in
place across the region. High temperatures will reach the 20s to
low 30s with upper 10s in the Southwest Adirondacks and, with
much slower winds, will feel much more tolerable than recent
days. Low temperatures Friday night will then fall to the 10s to
20s with single digits above 1500 ft with chances for snow
showers increasing once again in response to an approaching
upper-level disturbance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Latest model blends continue to suggest low probability (less than
10 percent) for significant snowfall (4+ inches) on Saturday.

Discussion:

Model guidance continues to show a more southerly track to a coastal
storm emerging off the N. Carolina coast on Sat, as a northern
stream disturbance with limited moisture moves across the Northeast.
There is even higher confidence in this now, as both GFS/ECMWF and
their ensembles have decent clustering of cyclone tracks well
south/east of our region out to sea. Long range forecast ensembles
show modest probabilities for > 1" of snow (30-50%) associated
with the northern stream short wave trough, which might be
enough to dust the ground in some spots. Overall this system
looks to have minor impacts in our area. The northern stream
short wave quickly moves east of our area Sat night, with just
some lingering snow showers west of the Hudson Valley Sat
evening.

Fairly quiet weather then expected through Sun night, with a weak
area of high pressure building in. The next chance of snow showers
arrives Mon afternoon into Mon night, as a short wave trough and
surface cyclone approach from the Great Lakes. For now will limit
mention of snow showers to areas north/west of the Capital District
with westerly downslope winds resulting in dry conditions in the
Hudson Valley. An additional disturbance in a broad NW cyclonic flow
regime could bring more snow showers to the same areas on Tue. Winds
will likely also increase again, becoming quite gusty. Temperatures
look to be continued slightly below normal through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Largely bkn-ovc lake-effect clouds and
occasional snow showers are expected to continue through much of the
period within moist cyclonic flow. Low-VFR cloud bases of 3-5 kft
will continue at ALB/GFL/POU, with sct skies possible at GFL/POU due
to downsloping west-northwest winds. ALB/PSF are more likely to see
higher cloud coverage as flow carrying lake moisture is directed
along the Mohawk Valley, with additional upslope enhancement
yielding MVFR cigs at 2-3 kft at PSF. Occasional brief snow showers
are possible at ALB/PSF into this afternoon, but impacts are not
anticipated outside of very brief vsby reductions at PSF.

A weak system will pass over the region this evening into early
tonight, bringing low chances for additional light snow showers to
ALB/PSF/GFL from roughly 22Z Wed-06Z Thu. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys are
possible within these showers. Mixed VFR/MVFR conditions continue
after sunrise Thursday.

West-northwest winds of 10-20 kt gusting 20-35 kt will continue into
this evening, with the strongest sustained winds and gusts expected
at ALB/PSF due to terrain funneling along the Mohawk. Speeds will
diminish slightly after 00-03Z Thu, but stronger winds similar to
this afternoon return after 12-15Z Thu at all terminals.

On a personal note, this discussion will be my last at WFO ALY. Many
thanks for the trust and the opportunity to serve. -LMP

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for CTZ001.
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ051-058-063.
MA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for VTZ014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...Gant/Webb
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Picard