608
FXUS61 KALY 161730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be chilly with gusty winds, as well as some snow
showers across the high terrain. We trend drier and warmer over
the next few days. Saturday looks to be the warmest day with
highs in the 70s, but this will also come with chances for
showers and a few thunderstorms, followed by a trend back
towards more seasonable temperatures for the second half of the
weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message:

- Strong wind gusts likely today, but the probability for wind
  gusts to reach advisory criteria (>45 mph) is low.

- Winter weather advisory for northern Herkimer County now
  expiring at 2 PM.

Discussion:
.UPDATE...Main change with this update was to shorten the
expiration time of the Winter Weather Advisory to 2 PM for N.
Herkimer county, as most of the accumulating snow should be done
by then, with just light snow around a dusting to an inch
through this evening. Otherwise, chilly and windy conditions
remain in place this afternoon. West-northwest winds will
continue to gust between 30-45 mph.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1025]...Radar and webcams indicating snow
showers mainly confined to upslope areas of the Adirondacks and
S. Greens late this morning, with a few light lake effect snow
showers in the Mohawk Valley. Peak wind gusts have mainly been
in the 25-40 mph so far today and may get a bit stronger ~45 mph
this afternoon, but should generally stay just below advisory
criteria. Will continue to monitor trends. Temperatures are
quite chilly ranging from the upper 20s to lower 40s. Overall
the current forecast on track, so only minimal changes needed
with this update.

Today, we remain under the upper low with low-level cold
advection, so we will see snow showers continue through the day
and evening, especially in the western ADKs. With 2-4" of
additional snow accumulation expected through tonight, a winter
weather advisory remains in effect for northern Herkimer County.
Elsewhere across the region, there could be a few snow showers
or flurries, but overall it should be drier than yesterday.

The bigger story today will be the winds. The pressure gradient
remains very tight across the region, and as we begin to mix
with daytime heating today wind gusts should increase in
magnitude, especially as we head into the late morning and
afternoon. We are expecting fairly widespread cloud cover today,
so this should limit the mixing potential somewhat. Given this,
and the fact that winds at the top of the boundary layer only
look to be on the order of 40-45 kt, it looks like winds should
end up just below advisory criteria for most areas. Confidence
to not go with a wind advisory was increased by the fact that
NBM probabilities of exceeding 45 mph gusts are generally low
(<10%) for most of the region. So, we will message widespread
35-40 mph gusts today, and while a few isolated gusts to around
45 mph will be possible from the eastern Mohawk Valley through
the Capital District and into the Berkshires, this will be the
exception rather than the rule. Highs today will be below normal
with a cold airmass aloft overhead and plenty of clouds; highs
will be mainly in the 30s (terrain) to 40s (valleys) with a few
low 50s possible in the Mid Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Snow showers taper off tonight.

- Trending warmer for the end of the workweek.

Discussion:
Tonight, the upper trough axis finally begins to slide to our
east. While there will still be some lingering lake/upslope
enhanced snow showers across northern Herkimer County through
the first half of the night, coverage and intensity of snow
showers should diminish as the night goes on with the low-level
airmass over the Great Lakes beginning to moderate and winds
starting to weaken. Therefore, no adjustments needed to the 06z
expiration time on the WSW. temperatures tonight will generally
be in the 20s (terrain) to 30s (valleys) with breezy conditions
and some lake effect clouds still around. Wind gusts, however,
will diminish after sunset back to the 20-30 mph range.

Thursday and Thursday night...High pressure at the surface
builds into western NY Thursday, and eventually slides overhead
Thursday night. While the pressure gradient will be weaker, it
will still be breezy Thursday. Heights rise aloft, helping to
promote large-scale subsidence, so skies should be much clearer.
With breezy conditions, mainly clear skies, and deep mixing, we
leaned towards the NBM 90% for daytime highs, which will range
from 40s in the high terrain to upper 50s/low 60s for valley
areas. With the surface high moving overhead Thursday night, we
remain dry and will see favorable radiational cooling
conditions, so we went below NBM temperatures. Most places drop
into the 20s, with some 30s for the valley areas south of I-90.

Friday and Friday night...The surface high slides off to our
east, and an area of low pressure strengthens as it tracks from
the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. This will put our area
in SW return flow on the western periphery of the surface high,
so the airmass will moderate and allow temperatures to climb
into the 50s for the terrain with 60s for valley areas. A warm
front will approach late in the day and lift north of our region
Friday night. With mid-level warm advection and a weak upper
shortwave tracking over the broader uper ridge, there could be a
few showers around Friday afternoon and night, especially for
northern areas. However, there is still some uncertainty is how
widespread and showers will be with a lot of low-level dry air
to overcome and the strongest upper forcing remaining off to our
W/NW. With more clouds around Friday night and the warm front
lifting north, it will be a mild night for mid April with lows
in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday
especially for areas north of I-90 with above normal temps ahead of
cold front.

- Fair weather with seasonable temps to close the weekend, as
an unsettled and wet pattern returns for early next week.

Discussion:

Low pressure tracks north of the St Lawrence River Valley and
northern NY Saturday morning.  A cold front slowly moves through
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. NBM guidance
supports temps 10-15 degrees above normal with upper 60s to mid 70s
in the valleys (few upper 70s near KPOU, and upper 50s to upper 60s
over the mtns). Cold advection occurs across forecast area and a
cool down occurs Sat night with lows in the 30s north and west of
the Capital District and Hudson River Valley with 40s to lower 50s
along and south and east.

High pressure builds in with fair and dry weather for Sunday. Temps
will be near seasonable readings in the 50s to lower 60s with a few
upper 40s over the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Chilly
night due to radiational cooling before high clouds increase ahead
of low pressure approaching from the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes
Region Sun night. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s with some upper 20s
in the Adirondack Park.

Chances of showers increase Monday through Tuesday ahead of warm
front and low pressure moving through the eastern Great Lakes
Region. NBM probabilities for measurable rainfall are in the 25-50%
range Monday night into Tuesday. Temps will be near late April
seasonable normals both days. Brisk and cooler conditions occur in
the wake of a cold frontal passage on Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...BKN-OVC cigs in place this afternoon,
with cig heights mainly at VFR levels (3000-4500 ft). However,
there could still be occasional MVFR cigs at KPSF for a few more
hours. Otherwise, skies will gradually clear late tonight into
early Thursday morning, with SKC conditions expected after 12z.
Winds into this evening will be west-northwest around 10-20 kt
with gusts of 25-35 kt. Wind speeds will gradually decrease to
around 8-12 kt with gusts up to 20 overnight into early Thursday
morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will be drier with wind gusts as high as 35-45 mph. Min
RH values today will generally be at or above 40%, however,
with abundant cloud cover. Thursday may be a day with elevated
fire weather concerns as RH values drop to 20-35% for valley
areas with wind gusts up to 20-25 mph. We will likely coordinate
with state partners to see if fuels are dry enough to support an
elevated risk of fire spread. If fuels are deemed receptive,
then SPSs may be needed for Thursday for portions of eastern NY
and/or western New England.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ032.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main/JPV
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/Main