933
FXUS61 KALY 241055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
655 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching from the west will bring increasing clouds
to eastern NY and western New England today, along with a threat of
showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Once the front moves
through Monday, cooler weather is expected through mid week, along
with a low chance of rain showers at higher terrain and in lake
effect zones.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours expected
  with a cold front passage today through early Monday.

- Dry conditions favored for most with below normal temperatures
  for much of the upcoming week.

- Low chance of rain showers (20-40%) of rain showers across high
  terrain and lake effect regions Monday night through Wednesday.

06z surface observations and analysis showed a cold front
stretching from western Ontario into the Ohio River Valley, with a
line of showers and storms along and ahead of it with the prefrontal
trough. Meanwhile, high pressure was located just to the east of
Cape Cod, which has been responsible for our dry and warm weather
these last few days.

As we close out the weekend, the aforementioned cold front will
continue to approach the area from the west. Most will initially see
increasing low and mid level clouds with low-level convergence and
moisture increasing, though some scattered rain showers and storms
will be possible mainly in the western Mohawk Valley/western ADKs
through early morning. As we head into the afternoon with
temperatures warming into 70s/low 80s, additional showers and storms
will fire along the prefrontal trough across the Mohawk Valley and ADKs
with ample forcing, instability (latest CAMs hint around
MUCAPE/SBCAPE maxing out around 500-1000 J/kg) and vertical shear
around 30-40 kts. As the previous AFD eluded to, do remain in
agreement that there is potential for some stronger storms given the
instability and organization that is being hinted. The primary risks
from storms would be damaging wind gusts given favorable low-level
lapse rates and dry air aloft, though PWATs ranging from around 1.25-
1.50" ahead of the front will ensure a threat of heavy rainfall as
well. Thankfully, the risk of flash flooding concerns outside of
dense urban areas is low given our dry antecedent conditions.

Coverage of showers and storms will become more isolated to
scattered tonight into Monday morning as the front slowly works
across the region. Early Monday afternoon, additional showers and
storms will fire up along the front mainly across western New
England, but should exit the region by mid to late afternoon.
Elsewhere, increasing subsidence aloft behind the front will result
in increasing sunshine, while westerly flow promotes temperatures
cooling Monday afternoon. Before that, most areas should see highs
climb into 70s to low 80s outside of high terrain. Lows Monday night
will drop into the 40s (terrain) to low 50s (valleys).

Heading into midweek, much of eastern NY and western New England
will see dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds each day as
surface high pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic. Cold air aloft
combined with cyclonic flow and the warm upstream Great Lakes may
promote isolated to scattered rain showers (20-30%) across the
Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks, with some showers extending as far
south/east as the Catskills, Capital Region and southern
Greens/northern Berkshires, especially Tuesday through early
Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will average below
normal for late August, with highs each day ranging from the upper
50s/low 60s (terrain) to the low/mid 70s (valleys). Overnight lows
will range from the low 40s (terrain) to near 50 (valleys). (Normal
highs this time of year are in the upper 70s/low 80s with lows in
the 50s/60s)

Our next chance of precipitation comes late in the period beginning
Thursday night as guidance brings another cold front across the
area. There remains much uncertainty on the strength and timing of
the front, so electing to run with NBM POPs (10-30%) for this fcst
package. Below normal temperatures remain favored per CPC outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z...MVFR to VFR conditions prevail across the
terminals this morning, though low-level stratus currently looks
to be thinning and shifting east out of the area according to
infrared satellite. Therefore, the MVFR ceilings at KGFL and
KPSF should improve to VFR within the next couple of hours. VFR
conditions will then be in place for much of the 12z TAF cycle
outside of potential showers that could force MVFR ceilings
and/or visibility later this afternoon. These showers, being
highly scattered in nature, are difficult to pin down in terms
of confidence in crossing through terminal bounds. So we
maintained PROB30 groups between 18-23z at KGFL/KALB/KPSF where
probability of occurrence is highest. Winds throughout the
period will be breezy out of the south to southeast at sustained
speeds ranging from 8-13 kt and gusts of 15-20 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
DISCUSSION...Speck
AVIATION...Gant