230
FXUS61 KALY 061447
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1047 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and cool today with a few isolated showers. A period of wet
snow overspreads the region late tonight into Monday resulting
in coatings up to 2 inches of wet snow with the highest amounts
in elevations 500 feet and higher. Then, a strong cold front
Monday night into early Tuesday will usher in a fast moving area
of steady snow resulting in additional light snow accumulations
followed by gusty winds, much colder temperatures, and snow
showers. Below normal temperatures continue through through the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- Slippery travel possible from 1 to 2 inches of wet snow that
  accumulates late tonight into Monday in elevations 500 feet
  and higher, with even a coating of snow in lower elevations.

Discussion:

Morning update to the forecast focused on lingering slight
chance and chance POPs later into this afternoon as weak warm
air advection and mid-level moisture lingers overhead which
will support isolated to widely scattered scattered showers.
Regional radar mosaic even shows a narrow corridor of showers
from western/central NY spilling eastward into the Mohawk and
Upper Hudson Valley. With the main parent trough still displaced
well to our west in the Upper Plains and our region solidly in
the cold air wedge north of the stalled front positioned in the
mid-Atlantic, our sensible weather likely will not change much
today with cloudy skies and cool temperatures in the 40s
continuing. Showers should gradually end late this afternoon as
weak warm air advection diminishes but cloudy skies persist.

Previous discussion...The aforementioned front is expected to
stall over the mid Atlantic region tonight, while a weak wave of
low pressure develops along the front. Forcing from isentropic
lift develops north of the front/wave. Model guidance in
somewhat better agreement indicating some light precip focused
mainly on the southern 2/3 of the area. Thermal profiles
indicate initially a rain/snow mix in lower elevations, changing
to wet snow by early Mon morning. There could even be a narrow
ribbon of sleet along the transition zone with a slight warm
nose aloft well south of Albany. Higher elevations > 500 ft
would likely see mainly wet snow. QPF trends have lowered to
around 0.10-0.25", with lower SLR south/east of Albany and also
in lowest elevations. So this all translates to around 1-2" of
snow accumulation in the higher terrain areas west/east of the
Hudson Valley and a coating to < 1" in lower elevations. Low
temperatures range from upper 20s in the mountains to lower/mid
30s in valleys.

The wet snow gradually tapers off from NW to SE through Mon
morning. Impacts should be minimal in lower elevations with any
light snow accumulations likely limited to grassy areas. Higher
terrain areas could see some slippery travel on untreated roads.
Snow will melt Mon afternoon as temperatures warm into the
upper 30s to 40s across the area. A stray shower may occur east
of the Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence in unseasonably cold temperatures starting
  Tuesday.

- Gusty northwest winds (30-45 mph) developing on Tuesday.

- Snow showers with light snow accumulations mainly in the
  western Adirondacks and southern Greens Monday night through
  Tuesday.

Discussion:

On Mon evening, a strengthening upper level trough approaching
from the Great Lakes will move across our area. At the surface,
a deepening cyclone developing is expected to develop just north
of our area and track east into northern New England overnight.
A strong cold trailing from the primary cyclone will sweep
eastward across our area bringing a period of scattered to
numerous valley rain/snow showers and mountain snow showers.
Despite limited moisture, strong forcing could result in brief
moderate/heavy snow showers primarily in the Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley. Higher terrain areas, especially the Adirondacks
and S. Greens, could receive 1-2" of snow with a coating in the
valleys. Temperatures will drop into the 20s to lower 30s by
early Tue morning.

As the cyclone deepens further in northern New England,
northwest winds will become quite gusty starting Tue morning as
strong cold advection develops. Forecast sounding profiles
indicate gusts increasing to 30-45 mph, with the strongest winds
down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District and east to
the Berkshires. Temperatures expected to be 10-15 degrees below
normal, ranging from the upper 20s in the mountains to upper
30s/lower 40s in lower elevations. The wind will make it feel
colder. Wrap-around/upslope snow showers expected to continue
across the W. Adirondacks, with an additional 1-2" in some
spots.

Snow showers should generally end by Tue night as the main core
of the upper low shifts east into Maine. However, a few lake
enhanced snow showers may occur in the W. Adirondacks and W.
Mohawk Valley. It will still be breezy Tue night with a decent
pressure gradient remaining in place. The main story will be
unseasonably cold temperatures with an anomalously cold air mass
in place (850 temperature anomalies of -2 to -3 STDEV). Lows
expected to range from the 10s in the higher terrain to mid 20s
in lower elevations. A persistent NW breeze will result in wind
chills in the 0 to 20 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures continue into Wednesday.

- Active weather favored to return for the end the week.

Discussion:

High pressure will be centered across the Appalachians to start
the long term period, favoring continued northwest flow across
the area for the daytime Wednesday. This will keep our
temperatures well below normal with afternoon highs progged to
range from the mid 20s (terrain) to upper 30s/low 40s (valleys).
It will be dry with a mix of clouds and sun. These conditions
will continue into the night with increasing clouds and lows
falling into 20s.

It will be dry for much of the daytime Thursday, but
precipitation chances begin to increase during the afternoon
with a shortwave and surface low approaching from the Ohio River
Valley. These chances are favored through the remainder of the
long term period as the shortwave phases with another shortwave
on its heels, which will lead to development of a closed low
aloft and development of another surface low around the Mid
Atlantic region. Still some uncertainties to work out regarding
how strong the system gets and where the surface low will set
up, but looks to be mostly rain outside of the highest
elevations with temperatures warming back to near normal values
for mid April.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z Monday...MVFR to LIFR conditions can be expected for the
terminals early this morning as rain showers ahead of a front move
across the area. As the front moves through, expect a gradually
improvement to VFR conditions by midday with drier air working in
behind the front. Late in the period, another passing system will
bring a mix of rain and snow to KALB/KPOU, with all snow favored at
KPSF in the higher elevations. Confidence is low on how far now the
snow will go, so have a PROB30 mention of snow at this time at KGFL.
At this time, I maintained VFR conditions as precipitation moves in,
with impacts expected after 07/12z. Light south winds initially will
veer to the west behind the front to around 10-15 kts with gusts
around 20-25 kts, and will subside to around 10 kts or less by the
evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 37 kts. Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV/Speciale
NEAR TERM...JPV/Speciale
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speck