103
FXUS61 KALY 060524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
124 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy conditions will continue into today for most of eastern New
York and western New England due to smoke from Canadian wildfires.
Though most will see dry conditions, there is a threat of afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms today and again Thursday.
Precip chances diminish Friday into the weekend, with warming
temperatures and humidity returning to the region as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

    - Hazy conditions and cloudy today.

    - Low to medium chances (20-40%) for rain showers and
      thunderstorms tomorrow and Thursday afternoon.

Rain showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon
across higher terrain locations of the Adirondacks and southern
Greens. By sunset, rain showers and thunderstorms should be
decreasing across these higher terrain locations and patchy fog
is favored to develop tomorrow morning. Otherwise, dry
conditions continue through tonight. Hazy conditions across
portions of eastern New York and western New England due to
smoke from Canadian wildfires continues through tonight. Due to
the smoke and haze above the surface, afternoon temperatures are
ranging in the upper 70s to low to mid 80s. Overnight
temperatures range in the 50s and 60s. Due to the upper level
wind pattern, hazy sky conditions can continue through the
overnight hours into tomorrow morning. For more information on
air quality, please see the Air Quality Alert.

For tomorrow, locations north of Albany have between 20 and 35
percent chances to see a rain shower or thunderstorm during the
afternoon hours. By the early evening hours, dry conditions return
with a 15 to 25 percent chance of a lingering rain shower through
the overnight hours. Upper level wind pattern shifts tomorrow with
support to finally relieve eastern New York and western New England
of the hazy conditions. Thursday afternoon has a similar scenario to
tomorrow afternoon with 20 to 30 percent low chances for afternoon
rain shower and thunderstorm activity for locations north of Albany.

Surface high pressure builds back in for Thursday night into this
weekend bringing dry conditions for eastern New York and western New
England. Seasonable to above normal temperatures are forecasted with
ensemble forecast models supporting highs in the 80s. Looking ahead
to Monday next week, heat and humidity could return based on latest
ensemble forecast model guidance and National Blend of Model data
with high temperatures in valley locations ranging in the low
90s with feels-like temperatures ranging between 90-95 degrees.
Being this far out, temperatures can change so continue to
monitor latest forecasts for more information.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z/Thu...Haze from wildfire smoke will continue to bring
occasional 4-6SM vsbys through much of the TAF period with cigs
remaining VFR through the period, except for possible MVFR
stratus/stratocu at KPSF until around 12z/Wed. Enough clouds through
the overnight should mitigate fog concerns. The exception is at KGFL
where cloud coverage is less. Maintained a TEMPO group for
intermittent vsby reductions to at least IFR levels. While isolated
to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon, confidence on one impacting a terminal is too low to
include at this time. Calm wind overnight will become south to
southeasterly at 4-8 kt on Wednesday, trending calm again Wednesday
night, except still 4-8 kt at KALB.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.



&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ038>041-
     043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082-084.
MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ001-025.
VT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
DISCUSSION...Webb
AVIATION...Rathbun