452
FXUS61 KALY 121524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1124 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler today under increasing clouds. Then, a disturbance
tonight may bring a coating up to 1 inch of snow for some areas
tonight, mainly from around I-90 southward. Then, clouds give
way to increasing sun tomorrow as temperatures trend milder
through the rest of the week into this weekend. Increasing
confidence for our next widespread rainfall Sunday into Sunday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Message:

- A fast moving storm system will bring a narrow
band of light snow overnight, although there is high confidence
that any accumulations will be rather light and fairly limited
in areal coverage.

Morning sun is gradually becoming filtered behind increasing
cirrus clouds as a mid-level shortwave seen on the latest GOES16
water vapor imagery in the Great Lakes gradually approaches.
Temperatures today will end up nearly 30 degrees cooler
compared to yesterday now that we are in the wake of backdoor
cold front and northerly winds ushers in a much cooler air mass.
Expecting daytime highs to only warm in the upper 30s to
mid-40s.

Skies turn cloudy by sunset with our upper level shortwave
tracking eastward along a mid-level boundary. Deterministic and
high res guidance has trended drier compared to the 00 UTC
guidance but still expecting an area of precipitation to develop
as confluent flow aloft enhances the mid-level thermal and
moisture gradient and supports some weak enhanced mid-level
FGEN. Given that the strongest forcing is in the mid-levels and
with dry air in the low-levels some of our QPF will likely be
lost to saturating the column. What ends up reaching the ground
should fall as snow due to wet-bulbing and looks favored in a
rather narrow corridor between the around I-90 southward into
the northern/eastern Catskills, Taconics, mid-Hudson Valley,
western MA and Litchfield Hills. Total QPF amounts are limited
to just a few hundredths up to a tenth and with marginal
surface temperatures hovering around freezing, SLRs should near
or under 10:1. Only expecting coating up to 1 inch of snow with
probabilistic guidance supporting 20 to 40% chance for snowfall
amounts to exceed 1 inch in the higher terrain areas where
temperatures will be cooler including the eastern Catskills,
Taconics, Litchfield Hills, and in western MA. Otherwise,
overnight lows expected to drop into the mid-20s to low 30s.
Snow showers develop this evening by 8 - 10 PM end well before
sunrise by 3 - 5 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Key Message:

- Temperature trend milder each day Thursday through Saturday

Discussion:

The frontal boundary that passed through the region on Tuesday
night will remain stalled to the south across the northern mid
Atlantic states for tonight. As a weak wave develops along this
front, a fast moving upper level shortwave will be sliding
within the zonal flow across southern Canada and into northern
New England. Although moisture is fairly limited and low levels
will be fairly dry, a light area of precip is expected to
develop by this evening and slide eastward for tonight. Model
guidance has been inconsistent on the exact placement, but
current model blends suggests it will likely move across the
Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, Capital Region, Catskills eastward
into western New England. The actual band of precip may wind up
being fairly narrow, as has been seen in the latest hi-res runs
of the 3km HRRR. With just enough cold air in place (both at
the surface and aloft), this precip may be mainly snow, although
surface temps may be warm enough to prevent much accumulation
in valley areas. A coating to an inch or so is expected, with
the highest totals across the high terrain. While precip may
begin in western areas as early as 00z or so, most of the precip
should be done exiting off to the east by 08z or 09z or so.
Overnight lows will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s with the
expected clouds and light precip.

By Thursday, any lingering precip will be done, but enough
moisture may remain trapped beneath an inversion to keep a
mostly cloudy sky across the region through much of the day.
Southern areas may start to see some clearing towards afternoon,
otherwise, it will be fairly cloudy and seasonable with daytime
temps in the 40s.

Weak surface high pressure will be passing by to the north for
Thursday night into Friday keeping dry weather in place. There
should be some breaks in the clouds for Thursday night with lows
in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Temps will start to moderate by
Friday with a return flow starting to setup. Afternoon highs in
valley areas should reach the mid to upper 50s with a partly
sunny sky. It will stay dry into Friday night with lows not as
cool as recent night with lows generally in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- High confidence (>80%) in above normal temperatures Saturday
through Sunday.

- Moderate confidence (40-60% chance) of at least one inch of
widespread rainfall next weekend.

Discussion:

Increasingly high amplitude upper level flow favoring ridging off
the eastern seaboard and troughing across the Plains/western Great
Lakes region during this time period. This pattern will favor above
normal temperatures through much of the extended, with greatest
departures expected next Saturday-Sunday immediately ahead of
incoming cold front within strong southerly flow regime. Showers
will also increase from west to east late Saturday into Sunday, with
a period of moderate-locally heavy rainfall possible. Current NBM 24-
hour probs for >1 inch rainfall are generally 40-60% ending
12Z/Monday. Will have to watch for snowmelt and resulting
hydrological response, particularly areas north and west of Albany
where a deep and increasingly ripe snowpack remains.

Daytime highs mainly in the 50s/60s Saturday, and 60s Sunday, with
overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Slight cooling Monday in the wake
of the front with highs in the 40s to lower 50s though may drop
during the day. Showers may linger into at least a portion of
Monday, especially for areas east of the Hudson River should a wave
of low pressure develop along departing frontal boundary. Rain could
end as snow in some higher elevations north/west of Albany.

Generally fair weather expected Tuesday and although cooler than the
weekend, temps should still remain above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through at least 22Z/Wed in the wake of
a cold front. A weak wave of low pressure tracking along the front
will bring increasing high and mid level clouds for this afternoon,
with the chance of some spotty light snow or a rain/snow mix
developing mainly after 00Z/Thu. This may allow for a period of
MVFR/IFR Vsbys and MVFR Cigs, particularly between 02Z-06Z/Thu at
KALB and KPSF. Will address this with a PROB30 group in TAFs due to
overall uncertainty in areal coverage of any precipitation.
Depending on prior precipitation, lingering MVFR/IFR Cigs may
continue through 12Z/Thu. Winds will veer into the north/northeast
early this morning at 5-10 KT, though some gusts up to 15-20 KT
could occur through mid morning. North to northeast winds will
decrease to 4-8 KT by Wednesday afternoon, and become light/variable
toward and after sunset.


Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL