573
FXUS61 KALY 060205
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1005 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear and cool weather is expected for tonight with another
partly to mostly sunny sky and pleasant temperatures on Sunday.
Some showers are expected Sunday night into Monday before cooler
weather moves into the region during the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1005 PM EDT, high pressure will continue to
build across the region tonight under a clear to mostly clear
sky. With light to calm winds, ideal radiational cooling
conditions are occurring with temperatures already falling into
the 40s to lower 50s with some upper 30s across the Adirondacks.
Have lowered low temperatures a couple of degrees tonight with
values now ranging from the mid-30s to lower 40s. Patchy fog may
still develop in the typical locations overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper system along the U.S./Canada border tracks through and
just north of the Great Lakes Sunday night, forming an upper cut
off low in SE Canada that is slow to track east. Mean upper
troughing holds over our region through much of the week as the
upper cut off is slow to exit.

Warm advection Sunday ahead of the upper system, with sunshine
much of the day, but some initial cloudiness begins to spread
into our area Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday in the upper 60s to
lower 70s and cooler in higher terrain.

Upper energy, some low level jet energy, boundary layer wind
shift and leading edge of cold advection will provide forcing
and moisture will support showers and a possible isolated
thunderstorms late Sunday night into early Monday morning. The
cold front tracks through Monday morning and gradual clearing
takes place through the day. There could be some gusty winds as
cold advection increases through the afternoon. Before the deep
cold advection arrives, highs Monday in the mid 60s to near 70
and cooler in higher elevations.

Cooling and drier weather Monday night into Tuesday. There may
be some frost issues by daybreak Tuesday in some rural areas but
not a high confidence yet. Then, sunny Tuesday with some
possible lake effect cloudiness into the western and central
Mohawk valley and southern Adirondacks. Highs Tuesday around 60
to mid 60s, with 50s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
More frost and possible freeze potential in some areas by
Wednesday morning. Some scattered showers possible Wednesday
into the southern Adirondacks and western and central Mohawk
Valley as an upper impulse and reinforcing cold front track
through our region. Highs Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower
60s with around 50 to lower 50s higher terrain.

Otherwise, dry and mainly sunny weather Thursday through
Saturday with slow moderation to temperatures. Highs Thursday
in the upper 50s to lower 60s and around 50 higher terrain.
Highs Friday around 60 to mid 60s and cooler in higher
elevations. Highs Saturday in the mid 60s to lower 70s and
cooler in higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z/Mon...VFR conditions are expected for most of the
upcoming TAF period with the exception of any fog development
tonight. Higher confidence for fog is at the climatologically
favored sites of KGFL/KPSF where some LIFR/IFR periods will be
possible from 05z-13z/Sun. There is lower confidence for fog at
KALB/KPOU so kept the TAF VFR at this time.

Calm wind tonight will become southerly at 5-10 kt on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Rathbun