463
FXUS61 KALY 280010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
810 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring a few passing rain or snow
showers to the region tonight.  Behind the front, it will be dry
tomorrow with seasonable temperatures, although clouds will be
increasing across the area.  With a frontal sitting across the
region, periods of rain are expected for the weekend into Monday,
with some freezing rain occurring across the Adirondacks this
weekend.  While temperatures will be chilly over far northern areas,
it will be very mild across the remainder of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...Few changes were necessary with this update as the
previous forecast remains in good shape. Clouds remain fairly
sparse across the region with little moisture around ahead of
the incoming front as validated from the ample dry air indicated
on the 00z ALY sounding. Made some minor adjustments to
temperatures and PoPs to maintain consistency with latest obs
and trends, but all else remains unchanged with additional
details to follow in the previous discussion below.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
As of 345 PM EDT...Visible satellite imagery continues to show
a fairly clear sky for the afternoon hours, with just some flat
cu/stratocu over western New England. No precip is occurring
across the area and it should stay dry through the evening
hours. Westerly winds have been gusty thanks to daytime mixing,
with some gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. These winds will
start to diminish this evening with the loss of daytime mixing.

A fast moving frontal boundary will be moving across the region
tonight. Moisture will be limited with this feature and only
some spotty light rain and snow showers are expected, mainly for
northern and high terrain areas. Any precip looks fairly brief
and light, with snow accumulation limited to just the
Adirondacks with a coating to an inch at most. Many areas may
wind up staying dry with this frontal passage, which should
occur during the middle of the night. Although temps may
initially fall this evening, a southerly flow and increasing
cloud cover will cause temps to hold steady for the middle of
the night with the front coming through. Lows will generally be
in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Winds will switch to the west-
northwest behind the front towards daybreak Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message:

- Freezing rain likely for parts of central and eastern
  Adirondacks and the Lake George-Glens Falls Region Friday
  night into Saturday morning and again Saturday night into
  Sunday morning. Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

Discussion:

Behind the cold front, Friday will be a dry day with low RH, but
winds should be fairly light. A brief area of high pressure will
be moving across the area on Friday, which will keep it precip-
free through the day, although some mid and high level clouds
will be increasing by the afternoon hours.

The cold front that passed through the region will have stalled
just south of the area on Friday and will be lifting back
northward as a warm front. This front will be aided by a strong
west-southwest low level jet in excess of 50 kts and allow for a
period of isentropic lift/warm advection which will lead to a
period of steady precip for Friday night into Saturday morning.
Initially, there may be enough cold air in place for a little
bit of light snow across the Adirondacks, but rising temps
aloft will allow for precip to either be rain or freezing rain,
depending on the surface temps. Some sheltered areas of the
central and eastern Adirondacks, including parts of the Lake
George area and down towards Glens Falls, may stay just cold
enough with surface temps close to freezing to allow for
freezing. Elsewhere, temps will be warm enough for just plain
rain. While temps will remain the upper 20s to mid 30s across
far northern areas, there will be much warmer air to the south,
with rising temps late in the overnight. Some areas in the mid
Hudson Valley will be well into the 40s to near 50 by Saturday
morning.

There will be a sharp temps gradient on Saturday, as the frontal
boundary stalls across northern areas. While it remain in the
30s to low 40s for far northern areas, it will be much milder
across the rest of the area thanks to the mild west-southwest
flow. Temps will surge into the 60s and even 70s across southern
areas. Temps could go from the low to mid 40s near Glens Falls
to close to 70 in Albany, so it will be big difference over a
short distance. Through Saturday, much of the southern half of
the area will remain dry with a partly to mostly cloudy sky,
while northern areas are cooler with thicker clouds and a better
chance of precip thanks to the nearby frontal boundary.

For Saturday night, the frontal may subtly shift back southward
as another wave of low pressure moves along the front. This
could allow for another round of freezing rain across parts of
northern Hamilton and Warren Counties if temps can get cold
enough. Otherwise, the rest of the area will just plain rain,
with the best chance for additional rainfall across northern
areas. Most areas will see lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

By Sunday, the front will finally surge back northward as a warm
front once again. Additional precip, mainly in the form of plain
rain, will move across the region, especially for northern and
western areas. Any freezing rain will end Sunday morning as
temps finally rise above freezing for everywhere.  Temps will
generally reach into the 50s, but some 60s are possible for
southern areas. Overall, ice amounts from Friday night through
early Sunday will be a tenth to quarter of an inch for far
northern areas, although there is still some uncertainty with
this.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- Active early spring and wet weather pattern continues Sun night
through Mon, as well as late Wed pm through Thu due to multiple low
pressure systems.

Discussion:

A low pressure system and a cold front approach from the west Sunday
night into Monday.  A milder air mass briefly builds into the region
with the deep south-southwest flow ahead of the front.  In the warm
sector, precipitable water values rise in excess of an inch.  PWAT
anomalies remain +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal with some Gulf and
Atlantic moisture being utilized.  Periods of rain develop Sunday
night, and temps will be rising from lows in the upper 30s to mid
40s.  Temps at this time appear warm enough for all rain in the
northern most zones.  The low pressure system moves northeast across
the St Lawrence River Valley Monday morning with the cold front
slowly moving across the region for likely periods of rain.  Max
temps rise well above normal ahead of the front in the mid 60s to
lower 70s in the valleys and over the hills and 50s over the
southern Dacks and southern Greens. Temps will depend on how quickly
the warm front move through on Sunday.  A few rumbles of thunder may
occur ahead of the front. The latest NBM 24-hr probs indicate the
best chance of 0.50" of rainfall or greater from 8 pm Sun to 8 pm
Monday will be in the 30-60% range from the Mohawk Valley, northern
reaches of the Capital Region, and southern VT northward.

The cold front to the system moves through late Mon pm/Mon night
with scattered showers ending.  A few snow showers/flurries will be
possible over the higher terrain and north and west of the Capital
Region. It will be brisk and cold in the wake of the front with the
cold advection with lows falling back into the 20s to lower 30s with
a few teens over the Adirondack Park.  High pressure builds in from
the north and west for Tue-Tue night with fair, brisk, but colder
than normal April weather.  Highs will run about 5 degrees below
normal with 30s over the higher terrain and lower to upper 40s in
the valleys and over the hills.  Good radiational cooling will allow
for lows in the the teens and 20s Tue night.

Wednesday begins with fair weather, but then mid and high clouds
will increase from the south and west ahead of low pressure
approaching from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest.  A few showers
may reach locations west of I-87 prior to nightfall due to the warm
advection ahead of the warm front to the system.   Temps rebound
closer to seasonal levels on Wed.  A period of wet and unsettled
weather continues Wed night into Thu with some of the ensembles and
medium range guidance showing some snow over the higher terrain and
perhaps into the valleys, if low pressure develops near southeast
New England with enough cold air in place Thu morning. We leaned
close to the milder NBM at this point with mostly rain and temps
rising back slightly above normal on Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail across all
terminals this evening with sparse cloud cover across eastern
New York and western New England. VFR conditions should remain
consistent almost everywhere throughout the entire period, but
that could be challenged at KPSF for a couple of hours later
tonight.

A weak cold front will track through the region tonight, leading
to increasing cloud cover. Forecast soundings indicate abundant
dry air in the low levels, however, so ceilings that develop
should remain well within the VFR category at KALB/KGFL/KPOU. As
a result of the incoming cold front, a few scattered showers are
also possible. However, with the dry air previously mentioned,
whether or not any precipitation reaches the surface remains a
question. Therefore, input PROB30s at KGFL and KALB between
04-07z for light rain showers. Visibility should not be impacted
even if a few drops reach the ground given the rates at which
they will fall will be very light. KPOU should not be in danger
of seeing precipitation tonight, but KPSF could see some light
snow showers also between the hours of 06-08z. With upslope
enhancement, it`s possible that at least MVFR visibility could
result from light snow showers but maintained low VFR ceilings
at this time.

Upon the passage of the cold front tomorrow morning, ceilings
swiftly improve and dry conditions will be in place for much of
tomorrow ahead of another incoming disturbance. Winds
throughout the period will primarily prevail out of the west to
southwest with sustained speeds around 10 kt. KPSF could see
some gusts up to 20 kt during the day tomorrow.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Behind a cold front, a dry air mass will move into the region on
Friday, with RH values in valley areas as low as 30 percent during
the afternoon hours.  Despite the dry air, westerly winds will only
be 5 to 10 mph, limiting the potential for fire spread.  With a
frontal system located near the region, periods of rain are expected
for Friday through Monday, keeping the threat for fire weather
related issues to a minimum.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 11 AM EDT Sunday
     for NYZ033-042-043-083.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Gant
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Gant
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis