823
FXUS61 KALY 060958
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
558 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous heat and humidity today and likely tomorrow,
mainly in valley areas, where heat index values will reach into the
mid to upper 90s. Then, a slow moving cold front will result in
isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly north and west of the
Capital District tomorrow with some storms potentially turning
strong to severe. As the front continues to slowly progresses south
and eastward Monday night into Tuesday, chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue with any storm capable of heavy downpours
given the moisture rich environment.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message:

-  Dangerous heat and humidity today will result in heat index
   values or "feel-like" temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.
   Heat advisories go into effect today at 12pm for the Greater
   Capital District, Mohawk Valley, Upper Hudson Valley and mid-
   Hudson Valley through 8pm.

Discussion:
Latest satellite imagery shows broad ridging over the Northeast
into the mid-Atlantic while a shortwave trough tracks through
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. We can also see Tropical
Storm Chantal impacting the Carolinas. As the shortwave trough
progresses northeastward today, the pressure gradient between
its associated sfc cold front over southern Canada and high
pressure off the East Coast tightens. This will result in
stronger southwest flow aloft that will advect an even warm air
mass into the Northeast characterized by 850 hPa isotherms
reaching +18C to +20C. Forecast soundings show deep enough
boundary layer mixing ensuing and given sunshine filtered
mainly through cirrus, temperatures today will turn hot rising
into the low to mid 90s in valley areas with mid to upper 80s.
Southwest flow will also raise dew points and humidity values.
Therefore, the combination of temperatures rising into the 90s
and higher humidity, we expect dangerous heat index values or
"feel-like" temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 90s. Our
heat advisory will go into effect at 12pm for the Capital
District, Upper Hudson Valley and central/eastern Mohawk Valley
and we expanded it further to include the western Mohawk Valley
and the mid- Hudson Valley. The advisory will be in effect
through 8pm. Latest CAMs continue to hint that a few isolated
showers/storms could pop-up in far north/western
Herkimer/Hamilton County this afternoon in response to weak
height falls but given overall weak forcing and with the main
front displaced well to the north/west in southern Canada,
limited POPs to just slight chance.

Any showers quickly dissipate by sunset. Then, another warm and
muggy night as the cold front in southern Canada slowly track
south/eastward towards the international border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Dangerous heat and humidity continues into Monday with heat
  index values or "feel-like" temperatures rising once again
  into the mid to upper 90s in valley areas. Additional heat
  advisories will likely be needed.

- With a humid air mass in place, areas of showers and
  thunderstorms developing Monday afternoon/night and again on
  Tuesday will be capable of producing heavy downpours.
  Localized flooding may result, especially in low-lying, urban,
  and poor drainage areas, especially if storms are slow moving
  or repeatedly impact a given area.

Discussion:

As the weak shortwave from the Great Lakes slowly pushes
eastward, it will gradually send the sfc boundary over southern
Canada south and eastward into western NY and the North Country
on Monday. Meanwhile, continued southwest flow aloft will also
direct the remnants of tropical cyclone Chantal into the mid-
Atlantic and usher a PWAT plume with values greater than 2
inches into parts of southern New England. Such a moisture rich
air mass will only increase our humidity and make it feel even
more uncomfortable. While increased cloud coverage on Monday
will reduce our high temperatures a few degrees compared to
Sunday, +17C to +18C 850 hPa isotherms we still result in high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Given higher
humidity, heat index values are once again expected to reach
into the mid to upper 90s mainly in valley areas. Given we
already have heat advisories out for today, we will hold on
issuing heat advisories for Monday until the next forecast
package. Otherwise, the incoming weak shortwave trough in
southern Canada will support weak height falls and steeper mid-
level lapse rates nearing 6C/km for areas north/west of the
Capital District. In addition, latest high res guidance suggests
that the approaching sfc front should provide enough sfc
convergence to support isolated to scattered shower/storm
development by late Monday afternoon into early evening. With
0-6km shear values 25-30kts, some organized convection is
possible. With shear vectors oriented parallel to the boundary,
expecting mainly line segments so damaging winds is the main
hazard potential from any stronger storms. SPC maintains its
marginal risk in its Day 2 convective outlook for the
southern/western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley.

In addition, we also will need to monitor areas south of I-90
in the eastern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley and parts of
western New England as the remnants of tropical cyclone Chantal
could track north/eastward potentially resulting in areas of
rain. Still uncertainty on where the remnants of Chantal will
track but ensemble guidance solutions and probabilistic
information from the GEFS, ECME and CMCE are raising concerns
that the remnants could track towards southern New England.
Given high freezing heights nearing 13kft, high PWATs, and
tall/skinny CAPE profiles, locally heavy downpours are certainly
possible. Recent dry antecedent conditions will likely mitigate
most flooding impacts but localized flooding in poor drainage
or urban areas is not ruled out.

As the cold front continues to slowly progress south/eastward
Monday night, we maintain chance POPs for showers and isolated
thunderstorms overnight. Again, any storm will be capable of
heavy downpours given PWATS 1.5-2". Otherwise, it will quite
warm and uncomfortably humid Monday night with overnight lows
only dropping into the mid to upper 60s with low 70s in the
valley.

The very humid air mass continues into Tuesday as the cold front
begins the day over the Capital District and continues to slowly
push south and eastward. The very moisture rich air mass will
remain ahead of the boundary from I-90 southward with PWATs
nearly 2.5 standard deviations above normal per the NAEFS. This
will support a favorable regime for heavy rain especially as
freezing heights remain above 11kft and forecast soundings
continue to show tall/skinny CAPE profiles with fairly
unidirectional flow through the column oriented parallel to the
boundary. WPC maintains a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) in its
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook focused for areas from the
Capital District south and east given potential for slow moving
storms with efficient warm rain processes that can repeatedly
impact an area. Some storms could also become strong to severe
given mid-level lapse rates near 6C/km, deep layer shear values
25-30kts and high humidity supporting SB CAPE values >1500 J/kg.
SPC introduced a marginal risk in its Day 3 Convective Outlook
and focused it mainly for areas south/east of the Capital
District. Again, damaging winds looks to be the primary hazard
from any storms. The front slowly exits Tuesday evening with
drier and much less humid air filtering into the region behind
the boundary from northwest to southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds into the region on Wednesday as our
boundary washes out and settles just to our south. While
temperatures will still be warmer than normal with highs in the
mid to upper 80s, the humidity levels will not be as oppressive
as the previous few days. Conditions turn more unsettled for
Thursday and Friday as a more pronounced trough tracks across
southern Canada and another boundary lifts across the Northeast.
We maintained widespread chance POPs both days as a sfc low
looks to develop along the boundary. Chances for precipitation
decreases headed into Saturday as weak high pressure/shortwave
ridging try to build back into the Northeast. Otherwise,
temperatures remain seasonably warm both days with humidity
levels creeping upwards.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour
TAF period. The only exception  will be for some brief mist/fog at
KGFL/KPSF early this morning. Light & variable winds less than 5 KT
are expected through early morning, then south to southwest at 5-15
KT late this morning into the afternoon, with a few gusts of 15-20
KT possible mainly at KGFL. Winds will subside to under 5 KT this
evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ038-040-041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-083-
     084.
MA...None.
VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VTZ015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Speck