302
FXUS61 KALY 241826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
226 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will bring some showers and
thunderstorms through tonight. The front will move east of the
region Monday, followed by much cooler temperatures for much of
the upcoming week. A few lake effect rain showers will be
possible across the western Mohawk Valley and southern
Adirondacks Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across SW
  Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley through this evening.
  Locally heavy rainfall also possible in this area.

As of 225 PM EDT, cluster of showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms tracking north-northeast across western portions
of the Capital Region and Schoharie County, and will continue
moving across northern portions of the Capital Region, eastern
Mohawk Valley and Lake George/Saratoga region through 4 PM.

Meanwhile, stronger thunderstorms have developed across west
central NYS closer to the pre-frontal trough and cold front.
Some of these will track into far northern Herkimer County by
mid afternoon, and eventually into much of the SW Adirondacks
and far western Mohawk Valley closer to sunset. This region will
be within a corridor of 30-40 KT deep layer shear, along with MU
CAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg. Some strong/isolated severe
thunderstorms will remain possible through sunset, with isolated
damaging wind gusts the main severe threat. In addition, there
is the potential for some training of showers/thunderstorms
through early evening across this area. Latest HREFs suggest
probs for > 1 inch/3 hours is 70-90% across portions of the SW
Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley, however probs for >3"/3 hours
is under 10%. Most of this rain will be highly beneficial,
however can not completely rule out isolated flash flooding
across the western Mohawk Valley should multiple rounds of heavy
downpours occur.

The showers/thunderstorms should decrease as they shift farther
south and east this evening, with scattered showers occurring
mainly near and south/east of Albany after midnight. Otherwise
mild and humid with lows mainly in the 60s.

The cold front tracks east of the region by midday Monday. There
could be a brief window of increasing instability and forcing
for a few showers/thunderstorms to develop across NW CT, the
Berkshires and mid Hudson Valley prior to early afternoon.
Otherwise, morning clouds followed by afternoon clearing and
turning less humid in the afternoon. High temps in the mid 70s
to around 80 in valley areas, and mainly 60s to lower 70s
farther north and west.

Cooler Monday night with clear to partly cloudy skies. A few
lake effect rain showers may develop later at night across the
SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley. Low temps in the mid 40s
to lower/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures expected for much of the upcoming
  week, along with mainly dry conditions.

- Low chance of rain showers (20-40%) across high terrain and
  lake effect regions Monday night through Wednesday, and areas
  mainly north of I-90 late Thursday into Friday.

Cool temperatures through the long term, with mainly dry weather
with the exception of isolated rain showers associated with
upper level cold pool/cyclonic flow and upstream warm Great
Lakes, which would be mainly across the SW Adirondacks and
western Mohawk Valley. Reinforcing cold front and passing upper
level disturbance could also bring isolated/scattered showers
late Thursday into Friday, mainly north of I-90.

High temps mainly 70-75 in valleys and 60s across most higher
elevations, although some slight warming could occur by Sunday.
Overnight lows mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, though portions
of the southern Adirondacks, southern VT and eastern Catskills
could drop into the 30s in isolated areas.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers are currently tracking north/northeast will likely
impact KALB and KGFL through around 20Z/Sun. There had been some
lightning within this cluster of showers, but it since has
diminished. Will keep a TEMPO for TSRA at both sites during this
time, along with MVFR conditions. Outside of these
showers/thunderstorms, mainly VFR conditions are expected
through this evening, although occasional MVFR Cigs will remain
possible at KPSF. For tonight, scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms will track southeast and may impact KGFL/KALB
between 04Z-09Z/Mon, with remnant showers possibly reaching
KPSF/KPOU between 08Z-13Z/Mon. Areas of MVFR/IFR Cigs and MVFR
Vsbys will be possible, even outside of any showers. Flight
conditions should then improve to VFR in the wake of the cold
front between 14Z-18Z/Mon.

South to southeast winds will remain 8-14 KT with a few gusts up
to 25 KT this afternoon/evening, before decreasing to less than
10 KT after midnight. Winds will then shift into the west after
the cold front passes at 5-10 KT by midday Monday.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Speck
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL