709
FXUS61 KALY 011118
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
618 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a departing frontal system, expect a mostly sunny and
brisk day today. A fast moving storm system will bring a
widespread accumulating snowfall to the region on Tuesday, with
the potential for at least moderate amounts. Behind this system,
it will remain chilly through the rest of the week, with some
additional passing snow showers on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

 - Winter Storm Watches remains in effect for Tuesday morning
   through Tuesday evening. Highest probability for greater than
   6 inches (50% or higher) is located over the Catskills,
   southern VT and Berkshires according to latest NBM.

Discussion:

As of 123 AM EST...Initial surface cold front is now well
downstream of the region, with a secondary boundary expected to
cross the area early this morning. IR satellite imagery shows
clearing is starting to occur for valley areas, although some
lingering clouds due to lake enhancement and upslope is still
occurring across the high terrain. Some additional upslope/lake
effect snow showers are impacting parts of the western
Adirondacks, but any additional accumulation this morning will
be an inch or less and will be shutting off as drier air comes
in behind the secondary boundary. Based on this, have allowed
ongoing Winter Weather Advisory to expire for the western
Adirondacks. Otherwise, it will be a chilly start to the day
with temps in the teens and 20s.

During the day on Monday, brisk northwesterly winds will be
around 10 mph with some higher gusts. Valley areas will be
mostly sunny, with some more clouds initially for the high
terrain, although even these areas may become mostly sunny by
afternoon as surface high pressure builds across the area from
southern Canada. Temps will be below normal today, with highs
only in the 20s to mid 30s.

The high pressure area will depart quickly this evening,
allowing for clouds to increase after midnight as the next
system approaches. Enough clearing will be in place early to
allow temps to fall into the teens to lower 20s, although they
will level off for the late night hours.

The next storm system will be a fast moving low pressure area
within the southern stream, aided by a progressive and open
neutral-tilted shortwave aloft. With this being a southern
stream system, it should have a decent amount of Gulf and
Atlantic moisture. As the low lifts up from the Southeast, it
will reform off the mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday and rapidly
deepen as it lifts northeast off the coast of southern New
England by Tuesday night. There are still some differences in
the guidance regarding the exact track, as the ECMWF still
suggest a flatter and more southern track, with the GFS/GGEM
more closer to the coast and further north.

A period of steady light to moderate precip looks to occur
through much of the day on Tuesday. Precip will be starting
around or shortly after daybreak and continue through the entire
day. For nearly the entire area, this will be snow, with some
rain mixing in for far southern areas (Dutchess and Litchfield
Counties) by Tuesday afternoon. Have gone with a blend of the
latest NBM and WPC for QPF. Snow ratios will be variable across
the region, with higher ratios (over 15:1) in northern areas
where it will be colder (although less QPF), while southern
areas will be 10:1 or even less at times.

Overall, most areas look to see 3 to 7 inches of snowfall based
on the latest QPF/ratios. Some higher totals of 7 to 9 inches
are possible, especially if any banding occurs, or across the
high terrain of the Catskills, Berkshires and southern VT. With
borderline warning-level totals expected, will hold onto the
Watch for now before deciding on advisories vs. warnings. It
will be close for warnings criteria (7+ inches). Latest NBM
still shows about 50% chance for 6" for Albany and Poughkeepsie,
with higher probability (60-80%) in the Catskills, Berkshires
and southern Greens. Nearly the entire area (outside of the
Catskill High Peaks) have less than a 25% chance of seeing 10"+
according to the latest NBM.

Snowfall will be tapering off from west to east on Tuesday
evening, allowing for a cold night on Tuesday night with lows in
the teens and a clearing sky. Northwesterly winds won`t be too
strong, so not much of a threat for any blowing or drifting
behind the departing storm system.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Below normal temperatures are expected through the long term
period. After a quiet and cold day on Wednesday, an Arctic cold
front will pass through the region on Thursday. Some snow
showers (and possibly even some squalls) look to accompany this
front as it moves through the area. Behind the front, west to
northwest winds will allow for frigid air to pour into the area,
with lows down into the single digits on Thursday night.

Well-below normal temps are expected on Friday, with highs only
in the 20s. Luckily, winds won`t be too strong, so wind chills
won`t be much of any issue for Friday. Otherwise, it will be dry
with a partly to mostly sunny sky.

Over the weekend, there will be the potential for some
additional wintry weather, although the most recent operational
aren`t showing this quite as much anymore. NBM and ensembles
still though do suggest the potential for some light snow (or
possibly rain in southern areas) for Saturday into Sunday with a
coastal low pressure area. NBM still shows a 30 to 60 percent
chance for accumulating snow, so will have to watch model
trends. Temps continue to remain below normal with valley highs
only in the lower to middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...In wake of a cold front, clouds around
3500-5000 ft AGL are prevalent at KALB/KGFL/KPSF early this
morning. Other than some brief periods of MVFR cigs at KPSF
~2500 ft AGL through 14z, clouds will gradually scour out later
this morning as high pressure builds in from the west. VFR
conditions will then occur through the most of the of the TAF
period ending 12z Tuesday, with high level clouds increasing
this evening and mid level clouds after 06z associated with an
approaching coastal storm. The TAF sites should generally remain
dry through 12z Tuesday, although some pockets of -SN may
develop around 10z-12z at KALB/KPSF so have included PROB30 for
MVFR at these sites. Winds will initially be westerly at 10-20
kt with gusts around 20-30 kt, becoming northwest this morning.
Winds will gradually diminish later this afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for CTZ001.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for NYZ033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...07