148
FXUS61 KALY 040009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
809 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
While a few showers will be possible this afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front, most of the region should stay dry this
afternoon. Some additional showers tonight for southern areas should
taper off early tomorrow morning with a dry and seasonably warm day
expected. Then, another round of widespread rainfall is expected
Friday night through the weekend, with well below normal
temperatures moving into the region behind this storm system next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 8 PM EDT, Wind Advisory for southwest
Adirondacks has been let to expire, as wind gusts have generally
decreased to 25-35 mph or less with decreasing mixing depth.

Elsewhere, cold front located from SW VT to just south/east of
KALB into southern Schoharie County and settling south/east. A
few sprinkles were occurring along the front, with a few
additional light showers/sprinkles on the cool side of the sfc
front across the central Catskills. Still expect some showers to
develop for some areas south of I-90 later this evening, with
best chances closer to I-84 after midnight.

[PREVIOUS]...As of 3:40 PM EDT...995 mb surface low is now
located near the southeast end of James Bay, and is vertically
stacked beneath a closed upper low. While it has taken longer
than previously expected, the system`s warm front is currently
lifting northwards across our region. Portions of the ADKs and
especially the CT River Valley in southern VT remain in the 40s
to low 50s, while portions of the Catskills and Mid Hudson
Valley are approaching 70. Temperatures continue to warm a few
more degrees, especially for northern areas as the warm front
continues to lift northwards. Most of the region is dry at this
time, although there is a line of showers extending into the
southern ADKs ahead of the system`s cold front. These showers
will gradually track southeastwards through the region this
afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front. An isolated
rumble of thunder can`t totally be ruled out, although this will
be the exception rather than the rule with only minimal
instability. Additionally, there was some consideration given to
dropping the wind advisory with this update given that winds
look marginal, although ultimately we decided to continue it
given latest NYS mesonet obs showing some wind gusts to around
45 mph behind this line of showers where there is more clearing.

Tonight, the surface low weakens as it tracks north of our
region, and the trailing cold front tracks through from west to
east. A few showers will be possible ahead of the front early
this evening. We should see a drying trend overnight as high
pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes and western New
York. However, another upper-level disturbance is expected to
track along the cold front tonight. This could spread some
additional showers into our southern few counties. There is
still some uncertainty as to exactly how far south the front
makes it before this upper disturbance arrives, although based
on 12z guidance and current obs it seems like the best chance
for showers will be closer to the I-84 corridor tonight. These
showers should generally be tapering off as we head towards
Friday morning. Lows will range from the 30s in the ADKs to
upper 40s for portions of the Mid Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Dry conditions Friday with cooling temperatures in the wake of
  a cold front.

- Additional chances for rain and possibly some mixed
  precipitation late Friday night and Saturday.

Discussion:
Friday...surface high pressure will be in control, which should
keep our region mainly dry as the cold frontal boundary settles
to the south of our region. Tomorrow should end up partly cloudy
and it will be breezy in the afternoon, especially where the
flow is channeled down the Mohawk Valley through the Capital
District and into the Berkshires. Tomorrow will be cooler than
today for most areas, but temperatures should still reach the
60s for many valley areas. Friday night, the surface high
retreats to the northeast, and clouds increase ahead of our next
storm system. A few showers will be possible towards daybreak
Saturday, especially south and west of the Capital District.
Lows will be mainly in the 30s to around 40.

Saturday and Saturday night...the aforementioned showers will
be the result of our cold frontal boundary lifting back north as
a warm front. A wave of low pressure develops along the front
and tracks to the west of our region. With enhanced moisture
transport and moisture convergence in the vicinity of the front
combined with mid-level isentropic lift and warm advection,
precipitation becomes fairly widespread Saturday into Saturday
night. Precipitation is expected to be mostly rain, although
with the surface high retreating to the northeast we will likely
see some cold air damming in portions of the ADKs, upper Hudson
Valley, southern VT, and along the east slopes of the
Berkshires. These areas, in particular the ADKs and southern
Greens, could see some freezing rain as the warm nose aloft
moves overhead while the surface warm front struggles to lift
northwards on Saturday. We can`t totally rule out needing winter
weather advisories for these areas at some point, although the
freezing rain looks to be more confined to the mountains
compared to the event last night into this morning. Given that
the cold air tends to hang on longer than modeled in these
setups, we blended in more of the colder NAM solution across
these aforementioned areas for temperatures Saturday. QPF
amounts look to be around a half inch to an inch and a half.
While we are not expecting much in the way of hydro issues,
within-bank rises on local rivers and streams can be expected,
as well as perhaps the typical nuisance urban/poor drainage
ponding of water. The warm front slowly continues to lift
northwards Saturday night, and we should see a changeover to
plain rain region-wide. Rain continues through Sunday morning,
with lows in the 30s to 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence in continued widespread rainfall Sunday, possibly
into Monday. All areas have a 10-30% chance of an additional half
inch of rain or more.

- High confidence in below normal temperatures beginning next
Tuesday. 30-50% chance of one inch of snow in mountain areas Tuesday.

Discussion:

Long term period begins at 12z Sunday with the aforementioned
surface warm front expected to have lifted north of our region,
putting us in a narrow warm sector. There are some questions as to
whether or not the warm front will get hung up south of the ADKs and
southern Greens. However, as surface low pressure tracks by to our
north, the cold front will drop track across the region on Sunday.
Along and ahead of the front, continued showers, and perhaps an
isolated rumble of thunder will be possible. Behind the cold front,
we will likely see some drying, especially for northwestern areas by
Sunday afternoon to early evening. Depending on how quickly the cold
front tracks through our region and how far north the surface warm
front makes it, we could potentially see temperatures climb into the
60s near the I-84 corridor, although if the cold front is faster
then temperatures here may end up below the current forecast.

Despite the lull in precip Sunday afternoon and evening, guidance is
in decent agreement that another wave of low pressure will develop
along the cold front beneath an upper shortwave and track southeast
of our region Sunday night. This will likely spread some additional
showers into our region, as there will be additional forcing for
ascent from the right entrance region of an upper jet streak
translating east/southeastwards from the St. Lawrence Valley. With
colder air filtering into the region behind the front some wet
snowflakes could mix in, especially over the higher terrain areas
west of Albany. Precipitation should generally begin to taper off by
mid to late morning on Monday (and possibly earlier). Drier weather
is then expected Monday afternoon as a narrow ridge of high pressure
builds into the region. Lows Sunday night will be mainly in the 30s,
with highs Monday in the 40s and 50s.

Monday night through midweek...Guidance is in good agreement that a
potent upper trough will dig down into the Great Lakes region Monday
night, and transition fro positively to negatively tilted as it
eventually tracks across upstate NY into northern New England
Tuesday into Tuesday night. There is also good agreement for a
clipper system to develop ahead of the upper trough. This will
likely result in at least some valley rain and mountain snow
showers, and valley areas may see some snow showers as well
depending on the track of the low center. Chances for snow will be
highest in the western ADKs, where some lake enhancement will also
take place. This will be thanks to an unusually cold airmass moving
into the region behind a sharp cold front associated with the
surface low. Temperatures fall quickly Tuesday afternoon or evening
behind the cold front, and it winds could be gusty as well with high
pressure off to our west. Unusually cold temperatures continue
Tuesday night through Wednesday night, although the airmass may
moderate somewhat by Thursday. The coldest period looks to be
Tuesday night, when lows drop into the 10s to 20s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z/Sat...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Cold front
will continue settling south and east overnight. A few showers
may affect KPOU and KPSF between 06Z-12Z/Fri, however rain
should remain light with VFR conditions expected. Clearing is
expected for Friday with just some passing high clouds at times.

South to southwest winds early this evening will shift into the
west to northwest in the wake of the cold front at 5-10 KT with
a few gusts of 15-20 KT possible immediately behind the front.
Winds will veer slightly Friday morning and increase to 8-12 KT
with a few gusts of 20-25 KT possible.

Low level wind shear will remain possible through around
03Z/Fri as winds around 2000 FT AGL from the west at 35-45 KT,
while winds near the surface shift from the southwest to
west/northwest and remain generally below 12 KT.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite gusty winds this afternoon, widespread precipitation earlier
today will limit the threat for fire spread. Additional rainfall is
expected tonight for areas south of I-90, and especially towards the
I-84 corridor. While RH values tomorrow are expected to drop to 35-
45% in the Hudson Valley, wind gusts will generally remain in the 15-
20 mph range or lower, except for around the Capital District where
more frequent gusts to around 20 mph are possible tomorrow
afternoon. Nevertheless, given the limited overlap of stronger winds
and lower RH values, combined with the recent precipitation, the
potential for fire spread tomorrow does not look to be high enough
to warrant SPS issuance at this time. Widespread rain is expected
Friday night into the weekend, which should further mitigate any
fire weather concerns through early next week.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...KL/Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Frugis/KL
FIRE WEATHER...Main