194
FXUS61 KALY 110728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
328 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025


.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds, but primarily dry day today as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the west and high pressure departs
to the east. Continued uncertainty surrounding an impending
coastal storm makes for a difficult forecast for the end of the
Holiday weekend, but there remains moderate to high confidence
in at least areas within and south of the Capital District
having measurable rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Uncertainty surrounding the evolution of an impending coastal
  system continues to limit confidence in resulting rainfall
  totals Sunday night through Monday. However, probabilities for
  at least 1" remain about 50-70% from the Capital District,
  south, and east.

Discussion:
The surface anticyclone that has dominated the region over the
last several days now rests off the coast of Cape Cod, yielding
falling heights across eastern New York and western New England
as a closed low enters the eastern Great Lakes as seen on latest
infrared imagery. Throughout the day, this low will dig farther
south-southeast into the eastern Great Lakes/western New
York/northeast Ohio Valley area, though dry conditions will be
maintained as upper- level southwesterly flow advects dry air
into the region about its forward flank from a building ridge in
the Plains/Midwest. Despite the continued surface dryness,
clouds will be on the increase both from this disturbance and an
area of low pressure beginning to take shape along the Southeast
Coast. Given this, highs today will be widely in the 60s with
upper 50s across higher terrain areas.

Tonight, the low slides a bit farther east into our CWA,
bringing some highly scattered, light rain showers, mainly to
portions of the Eastern Catskills and western Mohawk Valley,
though an isolated sprinkle or two also cannot be ruled out in
the Mid-Hudson Valley. All other areas will remain dry, and,
with more extensive cloud coverage, lows will certainly be more
mild in comparison to recent nights with values in the upper 30s
to low 50s. Attention then shifts to Sunday through Monday
where unremitting uncertainty in the evolution of an impending
coastal system poses a considerable forecast challenge.

By Sunday morning, the low aloft that looks to reside more or
less overhead looks to weaken in response to a building ridge
and eventual anticyclone over the Canadian Maritimes.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned area of low pressure currently
located in the deep Southeast will strengthen and make a
northward push after undergoing cyclogenesis, both at the
surface and aloft, near the coast of the Carolinas on Saturday.
As the coastal surface low begins to drift northward Sunday
morning, a vorticity maximum pulsing about the northeast
periphery of the associated upper low looks to translate into
the development of a secondary coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic
Coast. Aloft, the northerly low overhead of or closely adjacent
to our region and the upper low in the Southeast look to
continually weaken until both are absorbed into a larger-scale
trough that encompasses the entire East Coast by Sunday
afternoon. Based on relatively close consensus in latest sources
of guidance, there is moderate to high confidence in the
evolution of the environment up until this point. However, what
follows is where the most uncertainty comes into play.

The spatial spread and amounts of rain that are seen across
eastern New York and western New England are going to be highly
dependent on what occurs with the "secondary" coastal low.
However, the classification of "secondary" really only stands to
describe the chronological order of the formation of the
surface lows. In favored solutions, at this time, the
"secondary" low really becomes the primary and will be the
feature of interest in terms of the resulting conditions seen
across our CWA. Now, that said, the depictions of the track of
this new primary low continue to be highly varied with some
ensembles resolving a more east-northeast trajectory and others
north-northeast. The likely causing factor is the position and
strength of the previously mentioned developing anticyclone
over the Canadian Maritimes. This feature, in some cases, looks
to sationarily build overhead the track of the coastal low which
would shunt it`s progress to the east. Additionally, with a
ridge maintained over the Midwest/western Ohio Valley and
another upper-level anticyclone in the southwest Atlantic, the
track of the low could be forced, or blocked, on a rather narrow
path. This solution would bring the coastal low closer to the
upper Mid- Atlantic and Long Island Coastlines, yielding more
widespread and potentially heavier rainfall especially for the
Mid-Hudson Valley, Eastern Catskills, and southwest New England
from Sunday afternoon through Monday. However, another very
realistic possibility is the more east-northeast track of the
coastal low which would result from the high in the southwest
Atlantic being farther offshore and the ridge to the west
shifting farther eastward. Here, the deformation axis of
heaviest rainfall would be shifted to the east such that we see
less in the way of rainfall amounts here and less widespread or
consistent areas of locally heavier rainfall Sunday afternoon
through Monday. According to the latest run of the NBM, QPF
amounts have lowered a bit and the spatial spread of higher
probabilities of at least one inch of rainfall has shrunk a bit,
owing to a closer solution like the latter described situation.
That said, probabilities for at least one inch of rainfall
still remain around 50-70% from the Capital District south and
east. Rainfall totals across eastern New York and western New
England currently range from about 0.3" in the Adirondacks to a
little over an inch and a half for a small portion of the Mid-
Hudson Valley and Litchfield County through Monday. We will
reiterate here, too, that these rainfall amounts are all
beneficial and flooding is not a concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the coastal system departs, scattered showers will linger
Monday night into Tuesday morning, but by Tuesday afternoon dry
conditions will resume once again. The remainder of the week
will feature mainly dry conditions, though a passing
disturbance and cold front could bring some isolated to
scattered showers Wednesday.

High temperatures throughout the long term period will begin in
the 50s and 60s Tuesday and Wednesday before we drop into the
40s and 50s Thursday. Friday`s highs will be similar to those of
Tuesday and Wednesday, though a few degrees cooler with upper
40s across higher terrain and 50s to near 60 elsewhere. Lows
will start out in the upper 30s to upper 40s Monday night and
Tuesday night before falling to the upper 20s to 30s Wednesday
night and Thursday night. Expect 30s and low 40s Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A band of cirrus clouds is currently moving across northern areas
and allowing for few-sct high clouds at KALB and KGFL. Meanwhile,
lower stratus clouds are moving northward from the NYC metro area
and are impacting KPSF and KPOU with bkn ceilings around 3500-4500
ft. With the high clouds being rather thin, some fog is starting to
develop near KGFL, although this is not expected at KALB due to a
light southerly breeze in place.  KGFL will see some MVFR mist
through the rest of the night, with occasional visibility in the IFR
range there for a few hours just prior to daybreak possible as well.
Meanwhile, the other sites should stay VFR, although stratus clouds
will remain in place at KPSF and KPOU through the late night hours.
Any fog or mist will dissipate shortly after sunrise at KGFL.

During the day on Saturday, flying conditions will be VFR for all
sites. The lower stratus clouds around 3500-4500 will likely stay in
place for KPSF and KPOU through the day with a light south to
southeast breeze.  Ceilings should stay above MVFR thresholds,
keeping it VFR.  Meanwhile, sct high clouds will remain in place for
KALB and KGFL with continued VFR conditions.  The lower stratus
clouds will mainly stay to the south, although some scattered clouds
around 5-7 kft will move in towards evening.

Winds will switch to the north to northeast towards evening and
remain in place into Saturday night around 5 kts for all sites.  The
lower stratus clouds look to stay in place around KPSF/POU with
borderline VFR/MVFR conditions.  It should still stay VFR further
north as well, although some clouds will increase through the
overnight hours.  No precip is expected through the end of the TAF
period ending at 06z on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Columbus Day: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...RA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A coastal low will track close to the the NJ and Long Island
Coast Sunday through Monday. Minor tidal flooding may occur in
the mid Hudson Valley from Kingston south to Poughkeepsie late
Sunday through Monday. The latest NERFC forecast for PKMN6 is
projecting minor tidal flooding early Sunday evening into Monday
morning.

Please monitor our latest forecasts on the NWPS page at
https:/water.noaa.gov/area/ALY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ039>041-043-
     048-051-082-083.
MA...None.
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ014-015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...27
HYDROLOGY...15/37