548
FXUS61 KALY 011752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
152 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure stretching across the Northeast will bring
fair weather with continued above normal temperatures this
afternoon. Cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances
will be seen with a weak cold frontal passage Wednesday. Dry
weather and mild temperatures will return to the region to close out
the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 130 PM EDT...The sfc anticylone near eastern Quebec and
Labrador will continue to bring dry conditions with partly skies
this afternoon. Some sct-bkn stratocumulus and cirrus continue
based on the latest visible satellite imagery. Some adjustments
to sky cover with this update. Max temps were tweaked up in the
mid Hudson Valley with lower to mid 70s possible. Expect upper
60s to lower 70s in many of the valley areas and 60s over the
higher terrain. Winds will be from northeast to southeast 5-10
mph. A very nice day to start October!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Rain chances increase (10-40%) Wednesday with a cold front

- Dry and mild Thursday with high pressure returning to the area

Discussion:

Our flow will finally get moving with the arrival of a mid/upper
level trough and surface cold front late tonight. Clouds will
be on the increase with strengthening WAA and moisture advection
from increasing low-level southerly flow. Rain showers are
expected to be ongoing with the front across western and central
NY as it approaches our area. Some of these may make it into
the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley by daybreak Wednesday.

As the cold front moves into the area, it will be in the process of
weakening as it lacks mid/upper level support and runs into the
surface ridging to the east. Rain showers will become more isolated
as they encounter the dry air across the region during the daytime
Wednesday, with some locations east of the Hudson Valley remaining
rain free altogether. Those that do not seen rain will see more
clouds than sun with cooler temperatures, with highs ranging from
the 50s (terrain) to mid/upper 60s (valleys).

Skies will gradually clear from northwest to southeast Wednesday
night into Thursday as high pressure brings increasing subsidence
across the region. Temps start off cool in the morning with lows
ranging from the mid 40s (terrain) to mid 50s (valleys), but should
rebound nicely Thursday afternoon with highs ranging from the mid
60s (terrain) to mid 70s (valleys).

Mid to high clouds will be on the increase Thursday night as flow
becomes more zonal and moisture increases aloft, but this should not
stop temperatures from falling into the mid 40s (terrain) to low 50s
(valleys).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fair weather and above normal temperatures will start off the long
term period. A weak cold front will track across the region Friday
night or Saturday, bringing some showers to the region. High
temperatures Friday 75-80 in valleys, and upper 60s/lower 70s higher
terrain areas, cooling to 70-75 in valleys Saturday and 60s across
higher elevations. Overnight lows in the 50s Friday night, and 40s
Saturday night.

Fair weather and mild temperatures for Sunday, followed by
increasingly unsettled conditions for Sunday night-Monday as upper
level trough digs into Great Lakes region and potentially closes off
near or just south of the region by Monday. This may allow low
pressure to develop along an approaching cold front, possibly
evolving into a coastal storm for Monday. At the very least, this
period favors higher PoPs (40-60%) with chances of showers or a
period of steady rain, with the possibility for widespread soaking
rainfall if the coastal storm develops.

Temperatures will trend downward Sunday-Monday, with highs in the
60s to lower 70s Sunday, cooling to the 50s to lower 60s Monday,
with some potential for even cooler temperatures should widespread
steady rain occur. Overnight lows in the 40s to lower 50s, although
some upper 30s could occur Sunday morning across the SW
Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected prior to 00Z/WED at KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
with sct-bkn stratocumulus 3.5-5 kft AGL and sct-bkn cirrus.
Some lower cigs may develop at KPSF between 02Z-04Z/WED in the
MVFR range.

The lower cigs and vsbys develop ahead of the approaching cold
front and retreating sfc anticyclone east/northeast of New
England. Expect widespread lower stratus to form in the MVFR
range 06Z-10Z/WED at all the TAF sites. Some IFR mist/fog and
cigs may form at KGFL/KPSF 08-11Z/WED. The mixture of MVFR/IFR
cigs continue to 12Z-16Z/WED before some improvement. A few
showers may approach from the west and VCSH groups were used for
KALB/KGFL.

The winds will be northeast to southeast at less than 10 KT this
afternoon and will be 5 KT or less varying in direction overnight.
The winds will be southeast to south at 5-10 KT late tomorrow
morning into the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Thursday to Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Wasula