744
FXUS61 KALY 180946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
546 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from southeast Canada with
mostly sunny skies, cooler and less humid conditions today.  The
surface high will remain in control into Tuesday, as an upper level
disturbance and a low pressure system will bring the next chance of
showers by the mid week.  A drier air mass will build back in late
Thursday into the first half of the weekend, as temperatures trend
near normal for the second half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 224 am EDT...A cool Canadian air mass continues to build
in across eastern NY and western New England today. Strong cold
advection continues in the wake of the front. The skies will
continue to become clear to mostly clear, as strong subsidence
will occur due to the sfc anticylone building in south of James
Bay. PWATs will be 1 to 2 STDEVS below normal in the dry air
mass based on the latest NAEFS...and be around a half an inch.
Max temps will run below normal for mid Aug with high in the 60s
to lower 70s over the hills and mtns and lower to mid 70s with
a north/northeast breeze 5-10 mph.

Tonight will be initially a clear and cool night with light to
calm winds for ideal radiational cooling. Some cirrus will
increase in the early morning. We were confident to go below the
NBM values and closer to a MAV/MET blend with lows in the mid
40s to lower 50s across most of the forecast area with some
upper 30s to lower 40s over the Adirondacks Park, Lake George
Region and southern Greens. Some patchy radiational mist/fog may
occur in the Hudson River Valley, Lake George/Glens Fall area
and near the CT River Valley in southern VT.

The sfc high will be near southeast Quebec and northern New
England on Tue. The mid and upper level flow becomes zonal. Mid
and high clouds increase during the day. The MET guidance was
much cooler with highs and we leaned closer to the NBM/ECM/GFS
guidance here with highs in the mid and upper 70s in the valleys
and 60s to lower 70s over the terrain. Some weak warm advection
advection increases ahead of the next short-wave approaching
from the eastern Great Lakes Region and the Ohio Valley. Clouds
will thicker and lower some with a few light rain showers
impacting locations north and west of the Capital District. Lows
will be milder than previous night with mainly 50s.

A dampening sfc wave over OH and PA and its inverted sfc trough
will bring the best chances for showers on Wed into Wed
evening. Some low-level convergence coupled with moisture
advection will help increase the coverage of showers with an
isolated thunderstorm over the southern/western Dacks during the
afternoon north and west of the mid Hudson Valley and
Berkshires. The threat for isolated to scattered showers
continues into the evening with the better forcing south and
west of the Capital Region. Not expecting a lot of QPF with this
system with a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch with maybe a
quarter inch over the Adirondack Park. The short-wave will be
absorbed into Hurricane Erin off the East Coast and keep it
well offshore. Highs on Wed will be similar to Tue with 60s to
lower 70s over the higher terrain and mid 70s to around 80F in
the valleys. Lows fall back into upper 40s to lower 50s over the
higher terrain and mid and upper 50s in the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with the mid and upper level trough
axis moving east of the region, TC Erin moves further into the
northern Atlantic. An isolated shower/sprinkle is possible Thu
morning over the region, but a sfc high builds in over NY and
New England during the afternoon into evening with a backdoor
cold front moving through. A couple of showers may linger over
the eastern Catskills/southern Greens with the backdoor front.
Otherwise, weak cold advection occurs with high temps near to
slightly below normal with 60s to around 70F over the higher
terrain and 70s in the valleys. Clearing skies with light winds
will allow lows to fall back into upper 40s to upper 50s with
comfortable conditions.  Mid and upper level heights increase
over the Northeast and the East Coast Fri-Fri night ahead of the
next northern stream trough and a cold front. Temps trend near
normal with upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys and upper 60s
to mid 70s over the higher terrain. Fair weather continues Fri
night with lows in the 50s to around 60s.

The hottest day of the week will be on Sat ahead of a cold
front with max temps running about 5 degrees above normal.
Humidity levels increase with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid
60s ahead of the boundary. A prefrontal sfc trough may bring
some isolated showers/thunderstorms west of the Hudson River
Valley during the afternoon. The cold front and upper level
trough brings breezy conditions, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms Sat night through Sun. The moisture fetch is deep
with this system with PWATS running above normal, so many
locations may get some welcome rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as
of 5:45 AM EDT. ALB/GFL/PSF should see mainly clear skies today with
prevailing VFR conditions. At POU, SCT to possibly BKN mid-level
clouds linger for the first couple hours of the TAF period, but
dissipate by mid to late morning with skies becoming clear. VFR
conditions expected for much of tonight with some increasing high
clouds. Can`t totally rule out patchy fog tonight at GFL/PSF, but
with the high clouds around and a very dry airmass, confidence is
too low to include fog in the TAFs at this time. North/northeast
winds at 5-10 kt become gusty at 15-20 kt between 12-14z, but gusts
should diminish this afternoon. Winds become light and variable at
all terminals tonight.

Outlook...

Tue Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wed-
Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thu: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thu Night to Fri: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Main