271
FXUS61 KALY 101854
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
254 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift east of New England tonight with
another cool night with areas of frost in some locations.  Saturday
will remain dry with increasing clouds ahead of a low pressure
system approaching from the west with temperatures around seasonal
levels.  A coastal low will bring rain late Sunday afternoon into
early next week, especially from the Greater Capital Region south
and east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Frost Advisory for portions of the Mohawk Valley, Helderbergs,
  Glens Falls northern Saratoga Region, and Windham County VT
  midnight to 8 am Sat.

- There is a 50-70% chance of greater than 1 inch of rainfall
  over a 48-hr period ending 8 am Tue based on the NBM from the
  Capital Region south and east due to a coastal low.

Discussion:

As of 254 PM EDT...A strong anticyclone continues to move east
of Cape Cod and the Gulf of Maine this afternoon. Mid and upper
level ridging remain over the region into tonight. A strong,
compact short-wave continues to approach from the Great Lakes
Region and will progress south and east towards western NY.
Mostly clear skies with light to calm winds will start the
night, which will allow for radiational cooling. This will allow
temps to fall into the lower and mid 30s along and east of the
Green Mtns in southern VT, the central-eastern Mohawk Valley,
the Glens Falls/Lake George and northern Saratoga Region and the
Helderbergs, where the growing season goes one more day. A
Frost advisory was issued. A breeze will pick up out of the
south/southwest overnight, which will keep temps up in most
other locations. Some patchy fog will also form in the
Hudson/Mohawk/CT River Valleys. Lows will be in the lower 30s to
lower 40s.

The weekend will open up dry with mid and high clouds increasing
ahead of the short-wave trough to the west and a developing low
pressure system near the Carolinas. A few sprinkles may impact
locations south and west of the Capital Region late in the
afternoon in the evolving warm advection pattern. Highs will be
near seasonal values in the mid to upper 60s in the valleys and
upper 50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain. Clouds thicken
and lower Saturday night with the northern stream closed low
interacting with the coastal low trough. Some Atlantic moisture
may stream north toward the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley
and southwest New England for the best chance of showers. Lows
will be milder in the 40s with some lower 50s near the I-84
corridor and some upper 30s in the Adirondack park.

Sunday through Monday is a complicated forecast based on some
uncertainty in the ensembles/NBM with the deterministic models
such as the GFS/EC/CMC/NAM. Our forecast is close to the NBM,
but we slowed down the timing for showers with the evolving
diffluent pattern aloft on Sunday. The greatest chance for
showers on Sunday will be from the I-90 corridor south and east,
especially in the afternoon with strong isentropic lift
interacting with low-level moisture advecting in from an
anomalous east/northeast low-level jet. The greatest
probabilities for a half an inch of rain or greater (40-50%) are
from the southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley southward prior
to 8 pm Sunday from the NBM. The amount of cloud cover will
inhibit warming with highs only in the 50s to lower/mid 60s.

Sunday night into Monday...The east to northeast winds increase
off the western New England higher terrain and Taconics on NY.
Latest NBM probs support a 25-45% chance gusts could exceed 40
mph over the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. We used the 75th
NBM percentile for winds here and have gusts 30-40 mph. It will
be wet and breezy Sunday night into Monday with high chance and
likely PoPs. There may be a sharp cutoff of rainfall from the
I-90 corridor north and west. Lows will be mainly in the 40s
Sunday night. The coastal low stalls near the southern
NJ/Delmarva Coast on Monday and starts to drift southward.
Periods of showers may be the most common from the Capital
Region south and east. Highs will only in the upper 40s to upper
50s with north/northeast winds 10-20 mph with some gusts 30-40
mph.

It should be noted that there still is some uncertainty
regarding the exact track, timing, and rainfall with the
coastal low, which make impacts uncertain. Stay tuned for
further updates.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended forecast opens with the upper level low moving
away from the region Mon night into Tue with isolated to
scattered showers continuing. Strong ridging will begin to build
northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the
Northeast by Tue night into Wed. High pressure builds in briefly
mid week. Another upper level disturbance increases clouds from
the northwest by Thu with isolated to scattered showers
impacting eastern NY and western New England late in the week
based on the NBM.

Temps will be near seasonable readings Tue and Wed with highs in
the 50s to lower 60s with upper 30s to mid/upper 40s for lows.
Thu to Fri temps cool down near to slightly below normal mid-Oct
readings. The latest Day 8 to 14 Temp/Pcpn Outlook (17 to 23 OCT
2025) for eastern NY and western New England is calling for
below normal temps with near normal pcpn.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through 11/6z for all TAF sites. Southerly
winds continue through 00z with winds becoming light and variable
for the overnight hours. For KPOU, a brief period of patchy fog
could develop between 6z and 12z with higher confidence to include
during the 9z to 11z timeframe in a TEMPO group. Otherwise, high to
mid-level stratus clouds overnight should help limit fog development
in the morning with VFR conditions continuing through the end of the
TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Columbus Day: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night to Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A coastal low will track close to the the NJ and Long Island
Coast Sunday through Monday. Minor tidal flooding may occur in
the mid Hudson Valley from Kingston south to Poughkeepsie late
Sunday through Monday. The latest NERFC forecast for PKMN6 is
projecting minor tidal flooding early Sunday evening into Monday
morning.

Please monitor our latest forecasts on the NWPS page at
https:/water.noaa.gov/area/ALY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     NYZ039>041-043-048-051-082-083.
MA...None.
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     VTZ014-015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...05
HYDROLOGY...15