761
FXUS61 KALY 302326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
726 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching warm front will bring some showers and
thunderstorms overnight. Tuesday will be warm and humid, with
scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing
ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms
will taper off Tuesday evening, with warm but less humid
conditions in the wake of the front for Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2 PM EDT, mainly sunny skies across the region, with
patchy high/mid level clouds south of I-90.

Through 6 PM this evening, high/mid level clouds will increase
for areas near and south of I-90, with isolated
showers/sprinkles possible mainly west of I-87/south of I-90
toward 6 PM as a warm front approaches from the southwest.

Better chances of showers/thunderstorms develop between 8 PM and
midnight from southwest to northeast as clusters/bands of
showers/thunderstorms currently located across western PA/NY
track northeast. Although surface-based instability will remain
low, elevated instability (MU CAPES 500-1000 J/kg) will develop.
In addition, PWAT`s will climb to 1.75"-2" after midnight, so
locally heavy downpours will be possible. Becoming warm and
humid overnight with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday associated with a cold
  frontal passage. A few severe storms may occur during the
  afternoon to early evening Tuesday.

Discussion:

Warm front should be lifting north/east of the region Tuesday
morning, with scattered showers/thunderstorms remaining
possible, especially areas north of I-90. A break in the
convection is expected mid morning through early Tuesday
afternoon, before additional showers/thunderstorms develop
and/or translate into the region from the west during the
afternoon. Latest CAMs suggest best chance for
showers/thunderstorms will be later Tuesday afternoon into the
evening hours, especially from about Albany south and east. MU
CAPES reach 1000-2000 J/kg in these areas, with 25-30 KT 0-6 km
shear. This area will also become coincident with the right
entrance region of strong upper level jet translating into
Ontario/SW Quebec. Some storm organization will be possible
mainly south/east of Albany, with isolated strong/damaging wind
gusts possible, especially within any clusters/bowing segments
that develop. Heavy rain will also be a threat given high
PWAT`s and some potential for backbuilding/training of cells.
SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms
across much of the region for Tuesday, along with a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall (isolated flash flooding).

High temps Tuesday should reach the lower/mid 80s except perhaps
upper 80s across portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Dewpoints
will climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday morning and
remain through the afternoon, with perhaps some higher dewpoints
across portions of the mid Hudson Valley. This will lead to
maximum heat indices in the lower/mid 90s within the Hudson
River Valley and NW CT. At this time, no heat advisories are
being issues given borderline heat indices, and brief duration
in the lower/mid 90s.

Showers/thunderstorms linger until around midnight across the SE
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley/NW CT before tapering off, with
clearing after midnight. Patchy fog may develop, especially in
areas which receive prior rainfall. Lows mainly in the 50s/60s.

Fair and warm for Wednesday with less humid conditions, with
highs in the 70s/lower 80s. Approaching upper level disturbance
could bring some showers/thunderstorms to the SW Adirondacks
toward daybreak Thursday, otherwise partly cloudy with lows in
the 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms Thursday, some locally strong/severe
  especially near and north of I-90.

Strong shortwave translates across SE Canada and northeast
Thursday. Strong mid level winds (H500 35-45 KT), falling
heights aloft/cooling mid levels looks to promote at least
scattered thunderstorms across the region ahead of reinforcing
cold front. Given fairly strong dynamics along with approaching
left exit region of cyclonically curved jet max along with steep
mid level lapse rates (H7-H5 6.5-7.5 C/km) suggest at least some
stronger thunderstorms will be possible, perhaps severe with
wind and hail the main threats.

In the wake of this disturbance, generally fair but cooler
conditions Friday, then warming to near or above normal levels
by Sunday. Some showers/thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
depending on possible ridge-rolling disturbances rounding the
developing upper level ridge. Highs mainly in the 70s Friday,
warming to upper 80s/lower 90s by Sunday. Lows mainly in the
50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
through early tonight. A warm front will approach the region
beginning around midnight, and will cross the region through about
10z/Tues. This warm front will bring passing rain showers and low
potential for a thunderstorm, with the later mainly favored at KPOU.
As mentioned in the previous AFD, mainly VFR conditions are expected
during these showers but some brief MVFR periods could occur. This
potential continues to be addressed with PROB30 groups. High
confidence remains of a prolonged period of MVFR ceilings at all
terminals beginning around 11-12z/Tues after the warm front passes,
which should improve back to VFR by midday with increased
vertical mixing. Additional showers and storms will be possible
late in the period mainly at KALB/KPOU with a cold front, with
this potential addressed with an additional PROB30 group. Winds
out of the south initially around 5-10 kts will veer to the west
Tuesday morning, with gusts near 20 kts at KALB/KGFL by midday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Speck