494
FXUS61 KALY 300738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
338 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across southeast Canada will bring fair weather
with slightly above normal temperatures through Tuesday. A weak
cold front will bring a few showers for late Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with fair weather and above normal temperatures
returning for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 345 AM EDT, patchy clouds have persisted across the
region, as moisture remains trapped beneath strong low level
inversion. This has limited fog formation and extent thus far,
although as some breaks develop, a slight uptick in patchy fog
is expected through sunrise within river valleys.

After any fog/low clouds lift between 8 and 10 AM, expect a mix
of sun and clouds, with best chances for sunshine across the
southern Adirondacks. Afternoon high temps should reach the
lower/mid 70s for most lower elevations, and 65-70 across higher
terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is expected tonight through Tuesday, despite
occasional patchy clouds. Some river valley fog is expected to
develop again tonight, although areal extent is somewhat
uncertain, as patchy clouds and a slight breeze may limit
coverage. Lows tonight mainly in the lower/mid 50s, except for
some 40s across portions of the southern Adirondacks, with
Tuesday highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Weakening cold front will approach from the Great Lakes region
late Wednesday. Ahead of this front, a southeast flow should
bring areas of low clouds into the region late Tuesday night,
which may persist into Wednesday across portions of the region.
Some patchy drizzle or light showers may also develop,
especially across the SE Catskills. As the front moves across
later Wednesday, a few showers will be possible, especially for
areas west of the Hudson River. However, as best upper level
dynamics and synoptic forcing lift well north and west of the
region, shower coverage should remain limited and light, with
some areas failing to receive measurable amounts. It may be
somewhat breezy with southeast to south winds gusting 20-25 mph
ahead of the front Wednesday, especially in north/south oriented
valleys. Highs mainly in the 60s.

A few light showers/sprinkles possible Wednesday evening,
otherwise clearing overnight. PWAT`s drop to 0.50-0.75", so
temps could drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s across portions
of the southern Adirondacks should enough clearing occur, with
mainly mid 40s to around 50 elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message:

- Overall dry conditions favored with low chances (10-30%) of rain
showers Friday into Saturday

Discussion:

The long term period starts off dry with broad surface high pressure
stretching up the East Coast. This will be ushered east with the
arrival of a cold front Friday evening and overnight, which will
bring renewed rain chances areawide. Latest deterministic guidance
is mixed on solutions with the GFS being the most robust, as it
analyzes a much stronger trailing shortwave and is further south
than the ECMWF. Will be running with the NBM in this fcst package,
which has remained consistent in advertising generally low chance
(10-30%) POPs for the period. Regardless, confidence in this period
is low so look for additional changes to the forecast in
subsequent packages.

Temperatures start off mild with highs ranging from the upper 60s
(terrain) to upper 70s (valleys). The arrival of the cold front will
bring temperatures down to near seasonable values for early October,
with highs Saturday ranging from the upper 50s (terrain) to upper
60s (valleys).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z Tuesday...Primary forecast challenge for the upcoming
TAF period is fog formation this morning. High pressure building
south across the region will promote clearing skies and calm winds.
With lingering moisture from previous rainfall still in place
(dewpoints in the 50s), this will lead to increasing favorability of
fog formation areawide. All terminals will see periods of ceilings
and visibilities dropping to IFR/LIFR levels through about 12 - 14
UTC, before conditions return to VFR for the remainder of the
period. Diurnally driven cumulus clouds developing by midday will
not degrade flying conditions.

Look for light and variable winds tonight, with values increasing to
around 5-10 kts by mid-morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speck