900
FXUS61 KALY 111748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
148 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today through Wednesday remain quite warm with increasing
humidity Wednesday. While today and tomorrow remain dry,
Wednesday afternoon will feature scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Drier weather and cooler
weather returns for the end of the week, although temperatures
moderate to above normal levels again next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

 - Hot afternoon temperatures through Wednesday; Feels-like
   temperatures could reach as high as 95-97 degrees for some
   valley locations on Wednesday.

 - 50-70% chances for rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
  afternoon across eastern New York and western New England.

Discussion:
As of 1:45 PM EDT...Our region remains under ridging aloft, with
a 1023 mb surface high located to our south, off the Delmarva
Peninsula. With a warm airmass beneath the ridge, temperatures
for many areas are already in the mid to upper 80s per latest
ASOS and NYS mesonet obs, and should continue to climb a few
more degrees this afternoon, topping out in the upper 80s to
around 90. Fortunately, dew points are in the low 50s to low
60s. This is well below the NBM forecasts, so we dropped dew
points through the rest of the afternoon to better align with
current obs. This will keep heat indices confined to the low
90s, below advisory criteria. Dry conditions and mostly sunny
skies are expected through the rest of the afternoon.

Tonight...We remain in an area of large-scale subsidence as a
ridge of high pressure extends over our region, with clear
skies and winds becoming calm after sunset. This will allow for
favorable radiational cooling conditions, similar to the past
several nights, so we undercut NBM lows by several degrees. 50s
are expected in the high terrain, with some low to possibly mid
60s for the valley areas tonight. Patchy fog is also likely in
the typical river valley locations.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...The surface high slides further to
the south/east and weakens, although we remain under the upper
ridge which should help keep us dry through most of the day.
However, a few isolated showers or a thunderstorm can`t be ruled
out for western areas tomorrow late afternoon into early
tomorrow night as an upper trough tracks from southern Canada
over the western/central Great Lakes. 850 mb temps rise
slightly, to +18 to +19C, so tomorrow will likely end up a
couple degrees warmer than today. Given very dry mid-level air
in model forecast soundings and persistence of the current
pattern, we, in coordination with neighboring offices, once
again lowered afternoon dew points several degrees from the NBM.
This should generally keep heat indices below advisory criteria
(95F), although a couple towns in the immediate Hudson Valley
could briefly touch advisory criteria. Nevertheless, do not have
enough expected areal coverage or time duration to warrant
advisory issuance. Tuesday night will be warmer, with higher dew
points and a few more clouds around, so overnight lows will
only drop into the 60s for most areas. Patchy fog is expected in
the typical locations once again Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...An upper trough becomes
negatively tilted as it tracks to our north, lifting from the
Great Lakes into southern Canada. At the same time, a cold
front associated with low pressure near Hudson Bay will approach
from the west. Ahead of this cold front, a pre-frontal trough
will result in the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into the evening. There is
some uncertainty how warm we will get with showers/storms around
and a few more clouds. However, at this time, Wednesday looks
to have the best chance of hitting heat advisory criteria for
some of our valley areas, mainly due to dew points that are
expected to rise into the upper 60s to low 70s.

We will have to monitor for the potential for both locally heavy
rain and a few stronger storms Wednesday afternoon with the
pre-frontal trough expected to ignite showers/storms near/during
peak daytime heating. PWATs climb to 1.7-1.9", highest from I-87
eastwards. Flow aloft looks weak, and MBE vectors are also slow
at <10 kt. Warm cloud depths of >10 kft will feature efficient
warm rain processes. Additionally, the mesoscale and synoptic
patterns Wednesday fit the conceptual model developed through
collaborative CSTAR research with SUNY Albany for potential
backbuilding of convection in the Hudson Valley. All that said,
most areas have been quite dry over the past several days any
rain will be much-needed. We don`t really foresee much in the
way of hydro issues unless storms sit over any urban areas.
Accordingly, WPC has a marginal risk ERO for much of our region
Wednesday.

As far as the severe threat, SPC has our entire region in a
general thunder risk, although a future upgrade to a marginal
risk is possible. There should be plenty of instability (up to
1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE), and DCAPE values of up to 750 to
1000 J/kg which suggest the potential for isolated gusty winds.
However, shear is rather weak, which should prevent a more
widespread severe threat. While forcing is decent with diffluent
upper flow and the sfc wind shift boundary ahead of the cold
front, the lack of shear to balance what should be fairly deep
cold pools may result in updrafts quickly getting choked off and
having a tough time sustaining themselves. The threat for any
stronger storms is probably highest for our NY zones and lower
for western New England, as convection will likely won`t arrive
in western New England until later in the evening when we begin
to lose daytime heating. Convection diminishes overnight, with
mainly dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures as
cooler, drier air filters in behind the cold frontal passage.

Thursday through Sunday...Surface high pressure builds from
southern Canada over our region. If the cold front is on the
slower side there could be a few showers or a storm Thursday
afternoon near the I-84 corridor, but otherwise subsidence and
dry conditions should prevail. It will also be cooler and less
humid with low-level northwest flow. Highs will be in the mid
80s and lows in the 50s to around 60 Thursday/Friday.
Temperatures begin to moderate back above normal Saturday as
ridging aloft amplifies over our region and the surface high
slides off to the east. Another cold front may drop down from
the north towards the end of the long term, although timing
remains uncertain. If the front is faster, there could be some
additional showers and storms Sunday, but a slower front would
result in dry and continued very warm conditions. Beyond the
long term, CPC is leaning towards above normal temperatures and
near normal precip.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Tuesday...Primary concern for the upcoming TAF
period will be fog development at KGFL/KPSF overnight. With a
similar air mass in place and temperatures overnight expected to
land near or just below crossover temperatures, confidence is
high in this TAF to include a mention of IFR visibilities for
these terminals. Further refinements will be made in later
updates. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected with high
pressure in control. Light winds out of the south to southwest
around 5-10 kts will become light to calm this evening and
tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ063>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
DISCUSSION...Main
AVIATION...Speck