437
FXUS61 KALY 092331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
631 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly clear skies tonight will give us some of the chilliest
temperatures of the season. Increasing clouds tomorrow before
rain showers finally overspread the region Sunday night. After a
breezy yet mild Veterans Day, a potent arctic cold front Monday
night will lead to windy and much cooler conditions on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.Update...As of 6:30 PM EST...Just minor adjustments to the
previous forecast to reflect current trends. With clear skies
and diminishing winds, temperatures are already falling and
should continue to fall rapidly through the next several hours,
before leveling off after midnight as high clouds begin to
increase. Winds should become light and variable within the next
couple hours. Please see previous discussion below for more
details...

.Previous...After sunset, clear skies and decreasing winds will
support ideal radiational cooling allowing temperatures to
decrease quickly this evening. While cirrus clouds will spill
overtop the upper level ridge after Midnight, these clouds will
not impede temperatures from becoming some of the coldest of the
season thus far. By sunrise Sunday, expect widespread frost as
temperatures throughout the region drop into the 20s with teens
across the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
     Red Flag Warning in effect for Berkshire and Litchfield
County from 9AM to 6pm EST Sunday...

     Air Quality Alert for Ulster and Dutchess County from
Midnight Sunday to Midnight Monday...

After a chilly start to Sunday, clouds will increase through
the day as our upper level ridge axis shifts into New England
and strengthening southwest flow aloft induces warm air and
moisture advection. Despite the warm air advection aloft, a
shallower boundary layer should limit how warm sfc temperatures
can become and we expect temperatures to only rise into the low
to mid 50s in the valley with mid - upper 40s for elevations
1000ft+. Also, south to southeast winds become a bit breezy as
the sfc pressure gradient tightens with sustained winds
reaching 5 - 15kts and gusts up to 20kts. See our fire weather
product for more information on fire weather conditions.

Isentropic lift ahead of a compact shortwave trough progressing
through the Great Lakes becomes strong enough by early evening
(21 UTC to 03 UTC) to allow showers to expand from southwest to
northeast across eastern NY and western New England. With
southwest winds within the low and mid-level jet intensifying to
40 to 45kts overnight, downsloping effects looks to reduce
rainfall amounts, especially downwind of the Catskills into the
Capital District. Probabilistic guidance has thus trended
downwards with probabilities for rainfall amounts to exceed
0.10 inch now only 30 to 40% for much of eastern NY and western
New England. Only the western and southern Adirondacks area have
higher probabilities with 40 - 45% for amounts to exceed 0.10
inch. An initial period of rain is still expect before Midnight
but then rain showers likely decrease in coverage. Otherwise,
temperatures trend upwards overnight as we enter the warm with
temperatures rising into the mid to upper 40s to even near 50.

The associated cold front pushes through the region early Monday
morning ending the remaining rain showers but breezy westerly
winds will maintain lake effect showers in the western Adirondacks.
Early clouds give way to increasing sun (especially south of
I-90) and since the true air mass change lags behind, we will
enjoy a mild yet breezy Veteran`s Day. Temperatures rise into
the upper 50s to low 60s as deep boundary layer mixing taps into
the warm air mass aloft. Westerly wind gusts reach 20 to 30mph.

An alberta clipper-like compact shortwave sweeps through the
Northeast Monday night, ushering in a much colder air mass and
windy conditions. Probabilities for wind gusts to exceed 25 mph
range 30 to 70% Monday night with even 10 to 30% for wind gusts
over 30mph (highest down the Mohawk River Valley, Capital
District into western MA). Otherwise, strong winds will again
maintain lake effect rain showers in the western and southern
Adirondacks. As temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s
overnight, rain will even mix with snow in this area. However,
marginal temperatures will limit any snow accumulations to the
highest peaks at just a coating. A few showers and sprinkles
will track through the the region coincide with this potent cold
front but given lackluster moisture, a few hundredths at most
can be expected mainly for areas north of I-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
We turn colder and dry on Tuesday as a 1030hPa Canadian high
builds into the Northeast resulting in strong cold air
advection. Strong pressure rises in the wake of our Monday night
cold front will support gusty winds continuing into Tuesday
with probabilistic guidance showing 30 to 60% chance for wind
gusts to exceed 30mph. While temperatures will be seasonable for
mid-November, it will feel colder given gusty winds and recent
mild stretch. High pressure maintains control through Wednesday
night keeping seasonably cool temperatures in place under dry
conditions.

Forecast uncertainty increases Thursday through the end of the
work as we monitor another potential shortwave trough that may
lose steam as it runs into ridging over the Eastern CONUS. With
vastly different solutions on the timing and amplitude of the
trough and questionable moisture, we maintained chance to
slight chance POPs Thursday into Friday. Probabilistic guidance
only shows 20 to 40% for precipitation amounts to exceed 0.10
inch during this period suggesting that our prolonged dry
stretch show no end in sight.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Mon...Flying conditions are currently VFR and
should remain VFR through most of the period with high pressure
in control. Some high clouds begin to move in after midnight
tonight, becoming BKN to OVC by tomorrow afternoon. A few
showers are possible tomorrow evening after around 22z ahead of
an approaching cold front, mainly at ALB/GFL/POU. MVFR vsbys
possible in any showers, but the bulk of the rain holds off
until after 00z Monday. Winds become light and variable this
evening through tonight, then increase to 5-10 kt from the
south/southwest with gusts to around 15 kt from mid-morning
tomorrow through tomorrow evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Veterans Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning will be in effect for all of Berkshire and
Litchfield County from 9 AM to 6 PM Sunday. Also, a Special Weather
Statement will be in effect for portions of the Capital District,
Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley, and Taconics to high the elevated risk
for fire spread tomorrow.

Risk for fire spread diminishes tonight with winds becoming light
and variable and RH values recovering to 80 to 100%. Tomorrow,
minimum RH values will drop to 30 to 45% in the afternoon. Winds
pick up from the S/SW in the afternoon with gusts up to 15 to 20
mph. The highest wind gusts and lowest RH values are expected for
the aforementioned areas with headlines tomorrow. A widespread light
rain is expected Sunday night into Monday with a cold frontal
passage. Most places will see a tenth to a quarter inch of rain.
This should help mitigate fire weather concerns for Monday, although
winds do become breezy behind the cold front. Tuesday also looks to
feature gusty winds and marginally low RH values, especially south
of I-90. Depending on how much rain we see tomorrow night and how
fuels respond to the rain, additional fire weather headlines could
be issued Tuesday.

Remember to follow wildfire safety which includes obeying burn bans,
avoiding activities with open flames or sparks, and keeping vehicles
off of dry grass.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for CTZ001-013.
NY...None.
MA...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Main/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Main
FIRE WEATHER...Main/Speciale