572
FXUS61 KALY 222031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
331 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring increasing clouds
tonight, with cold temperatures continuing. Below normal
temperatures and mainly dry conditions persist Thursday through
Friday, aside from some snow showers in the western Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley. Temperatures moderate to more seasonable levels with
increasing chances for some snow showers Sunday into the first half
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Message:

 - Cold tonight, though not quite as bitter as last 2 nights.

Discussion:

As of 330 PM EST, sunny skies and cold temperatures continue,
although high/mid level clouds now increasing across SW
Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley.

Clouds will increase overnight as a mid/upper level disturbance
approaches from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. Before
clouds thicken, temps could drop off rapidly after sunset into
the single digits above and below zero, with best chances for
some below zero mins for areas just south and east of Albany,
where deepest snowpack exists.

As clouds thicken after midnight and a light south wind
develops, temps may start rising in some areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 - Slow moderation in temperatures expected through Friday.

 - Some snow showers possible (30-60%) across portions of SW
   Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley Thursday night/Friday
   morning.

Discussion:

Patches of mid level clouds expected through Thursday morning,
which should tend to thin out during the afternoon hours. Can
not completely rule out some flurries/light snow showers for
some areas near and north of I-90 Thursday morning within a
brief period of warm advection. Max temps should reach the
lower/mid 20s for most valley areas and teens across higher
elevations. South winds may be somewhat gusty within some
north/south oriented valleys Thursday morning through mid
afternoon, with some gusts up to 25 mph possible.

Approaching weak cold front and upper level shortwave increases
the chances for snow showers across the SW Adirondacks/western
Mohawk Valley Thursday night. Accumulations of up to an inch
could occur across portions of northern Herkimer County, with
generally a coating to less than an inch farther south and east.
Low temps mainly in the single digits, though if any clearing
occurs, temps could locally free-fall to near or below zero,
especially where fresh and deep snowpack exists.

Lingering snow showers across SW Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley
region should taper off Friday morning, though some extensions
of the snow showers/flurries could occur into the Capital
Region. Highs in the 20s for most valley areas, perhaps around
30 across the mid Hudson Valley.

Slight warm advection develops ahead of next shortwave Friday
night, which could allow for some additional snow
showers/flurries for areas near and north of I-90. Some breaks
in the clouds could allow for localized min temps dropping back
below zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - Increasing chances for snow showers next week as clipper type
   systems pass near and north of the region.

 - Gusty winds possible at times with passage of nearby clippers
   next week.

 - Temperatures moderate to near seasonable levels Sunday into
   early next week before turning colder midweek.

Discussion:

Increasing frequency of clipper systems will track north of the
region through next week. Initial system may bring some snow
showers, mainly to the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley
late Sunday into early Monday. Additional snow shower chances
occur Monday night into Wednesday with additional clippers
tracking north of the Great Lakes into Quebec. Generally light
snowfall accumulations are expected, however depending on timing
of these features, slippery travel could coincide with some
commutes across the region.

Gusty winds may also occur as the clipper systems and associated
fronts pass through. Monday could be breezy with west/southwest
winds within warm sector of clipper, then shifting into the
northwest in the wake of system. Gusts of 30-40 mph could occur.

Another cold day Saturday with highs mainly in the 20s, then
temps trending closer to seasonable levels Sunday through
Tuesday with highs in the 20s and 30s, and overnight lows in the
teens to lower 20s. Potential for colder temperatures Tuesday
night into Wednesday with highs in the teens and 20s, and lows
in the single digits and teens.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...High pressure along the east coast will
continue to provide VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period.
The approach of an upper level disturbance will bring an increase in
mid level clouds tonight, but with cigs ~10 kft AGL. Winds will be
variable around 5 kt or less, becoming southerly around 5-10 kt
Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Main
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV