720
FXUS61 KALY 121005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
605 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift east off the New England coast today,
providing continued dry weather. With a southerly flow
developing, temperatures will warm to above normal levels this
afternoon. Chances for showers will gradually increase on
Tuesday, as an upper level low pressure system tracks north into
the Ohio Valley region, spreading moisture into our area.
Chances for showers will persist Wednesday into Thursday, with
little change in the overall pattern. Temperatures will remain
above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...Frost Advisory expired at 6 AM, as temperatures have
begun to warm and thus the threat for frost is ending.
Temperatures should warm fairly quickly later this morning, but
starting out quite chilly in the 30s and 40s at this early hour.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0325]...After a chilly start to the day,
temperatures will warm considerably by this afternoon as a
southwest flow develops around high pressure departing off the
New England coast. Sunshine, with just some increasing high
level cirrus clouds in the afternoon, and decent mixing will
help boost temperatures into the mid/upper 70s in most valley
locations. S-SW surface winds will gust around 15-20 mph at
times during the afternoon.

Tonight will be much milder with a southerly low level flow
continuing along with increasing high level clouds. Another area
of high pressure will be tracking SE from Quebec into Maine,
resulting in continued dry conditions. Lows will range from the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A large upper level low over the Tennessee Valley region will
start to slowly track northward into the lower Ohio Valley on
Tue. Ridging aloft over northern NY and New England should keep
most of the widespread/heavier rainfall associated with the
upper low suppressed to our south. However, with surface high
pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes, there will be a
strengthening low level SE onshore flow resulting in increasing
moisture (PWAT anomalies rising to +1 to +2 STDEV). So scattered
showers are expected mainly for areas south of I-90. Latest
CAMs indicating the showers weakening later in the day as they
move north and encounter the ridging aloft. Temperatures will
remain mild though, with highs mainly in the 70s expected as
clouds likely won`t thicken until later in the afternoon.

As the large upper low meanders northward into the Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes regions, diffluent flow aloft will result in
additional showers across our area Tue night into Wed. With
upper ridging still in place to our north, most of the shower
activity is expected to be scattered in coverage and limited to
areas from around I-90 south. It will likely not be raining most
of the time. Lows Tue night will be mild in the 50s, with highs
on Wed slightly cooler(upper 60s to lower 70s), due to
extensive/thicker cloud cover.

Guidance indicating the upper low become a progressive open
wave trough Wed night. So while it will be weakening, the trough
axis moving across our area could bring some additional showers
with anomalous moisture still in place (PWAT anomalies of +1 to
+2 STDEV). Low temperatures will be mild with mainly mid to
upper 50s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Daily chances for showers and even thunderstorms going into
  the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures initially drop back to near normal
  by the weekend.

Discussion:

Upper level trough should be stretching from southern Ontario
along the East Coast to start the long term period. While it is
progged to be on a weakening trend, enough CVA and upper level
lift will interact with the warm and noticeably humid air mass
(dewpoints progged to climb into the 50s/60s) to keep daily
chances of precipitation through the end of the work week. Storm
chances Thursday are low given ample moisture through the
atmospheric column and a lack of deep layer shear, but this will
change Friday with the approach of another trough associated
with a deep surface low across the Midwest and Great Lakes. This
low will send additional surface moisture into the region,
drier air aloft and stronger winds aloft, which will increase
deep layer shear and allow for better organization of
convection.

This trough will be followed by a surface cold front and the
parent upper level low, which will keep our daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms going into the weekend. Highs will be
warmest Thursday through Saturday, with values ranging from near
70 (terrain) to near 80 (valleys). Lows Thursday and Friday
nights will range from the mid 50s (terrain) to mid 60s
(valleys). Temperatures look to drop back to near normal values
in the 50s (terrain) to near 70 (valleys) behind the front to
close out the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z Tuesday...Primary concern with this TAF is the
threat of brief reductions in visibilities to MVFR levels at
KGFL around 10- 12z, mainly due to development of mist around
the terminal. This threat continues to be addressed in a TEMPO
group. Outside of this, VFR conditions can be expected over the
next 24 hours. Very light north to northeast winds at 5 kts or
less will increase out of the south by midday, with gusts
nearing 20 kts by the early afternoon. Winds will then become
light & variable with the sunset around 13/00z.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speck