325
FXUS61 KALY 021014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
614 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 615 AM EDT, temperatures have dropped off into the upper
40s/lower 50s in areas where skies have cleared out. Patchy
dense fog has also formed within some river valleys mainly south
and east of Albany, and have adjusted/added mention of fog to
these areas.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring seasonable temperatures and mainly dry
weather through Wednesday. A weak upper level disturbance could
trigger an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the southern
Adirondacks and southern Vermont this afternoon. A cold front and
a strong upper level disturbance will bring showers and a few
thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon into Friday with cooler
temperatures for next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 AM EDT, thick veil of high clouds slowly shifting
north and west, with back edge just south of I-90. Expect
clearing to slowly advance north and west over the next few
hours. However, given relatively moist boundary layer, as the
clearing takes hold, temps will cool down more rapidly toward
dewpoints, allowing patchy fog to develop. Will have to watch
trends through daybreak as locally dense fog will be possible,
particularly river valleys near and south of I-90.

Once any fog/low clouds lift after sunrise, expect mostly sunny
skies and warmer temps compared to Monday. Across portions of
the southern Adirondacks and southern VT, colder temps
aloft/better instability and some lift from upper level low
drifting northward could promote isolated showers/thunderstorms
this afternoon, where slight chance/low chance (20-30%) are
indicated. Afternoon max temps should reach around 80 within
valley areas, and lower/mid 70s across higher elevations.

Mainly clear for tonight and again Wednesday night with patchy
fog developing, particularly within river valleys. Lows both
nights in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s.

Another mostly sunny and warm day expected for Wednesday,
although an isolated shower/thunderstorm can not be completely
ruled out across the southern Adirondacks. Afternoon high temps
around 80 in valleys and 70-75 across higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- Beneficial rainfall possible (30-80%) late Thursday afternoon
  into Friday morning, especially areas west of I-87.

- Patchy frost possible (30-60%) across portions of the SW
  Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern VT Sunday night-
  Monday morning.

Deep upper level trough digs into Great Lakes region for later
this week. Initial cold front approaches from the west Thursday
afternoon or night, passing east of the region Friday morning.
Guidance favors a band of showers/embedded thunderstorms
along/ahead of this front, although band may tend to weaken with
eastward extent as it outruns better instability and moisture
transport. Nevertheless, statistical guidance suggests the
potential for highly beneficial rain across portions of eastern
New York/western New England, with 01Z/02 NBM24-hour probs for
>0.50" ending 8 AM Friday 40-80% for areas west of I-87.
Similar probs ending 8 PM Friday are a bit less, 40-50% west of
I-87 and 20-40% to the east. Chances for >1" rain during these
periods are much less, maxing at 20-40% west of I-87 through 8
AM Friday, so odds are favoring moderate rainfall at this time,
mainly west of I-87.

Another upper level disturbance and reinforcing cold front looks
to track across the region Saturday, although timing remains
uncertain. Should this front pass through Saturday afternoon
during peak heating, there could be some thunderstorms,
especially areas south/east of the Capital Region.

In the wake of this second front, much cooler temps will filter
into the region. In fact, 01Z/NBM 24-hour probs for min temps
<36 degrees ending 8 AM Monday are 20-60+% across the SW
Adirondacks, higher elevations of southern VT, and the eastern
Catskills, suggesting at least patchy frost possible across the
areas late Sunday night/Monday morning. Elsewhere, expect min
temps in the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s, likely the coldest
morning of the season thus far.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday...ALB/POU should start the TAF period VFR,
while any lingering fog/mist at GFL/PSF should dissipate by 13z.
Then, just a few mid and high clouds around today through the first
half of tonight with prevailing VFR conditions. There could be a few
showers near GFL this afternoon (17-22z), but confidence is too low
to include even a VCSH in the TAFs. Patchy fog is expected to
develop again for the second half of tonight at GFL/PSF. Timing and
vsby restrictions will be refined with future TAF issuances. Winds
will be light and variable at GFL/POU/PSF through the entire TAF
period, and light and variable at ALB through mid-afternoon before
increasing to around 5 kt from the S/SE, which continues through at
least 12z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...Wind gusts of 25-30 mph possible Thursday,
along with RH values possibly as low as 35-45% Thursday
afternoon...

Tightening low level pressure gradient ahead of approaching cold
front will allow south to southeast winds to increase Thursday
afternoon to 10-20 mph, with some gusts of 25-30 mph possible,
especially within north-south oriented valleys. In addition, RH
values could briefly fall as low as 35-45 percent Thursday
afternoon.

A wetting rainfall is likely Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KL
SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Main
FIRE WEATHER...KL