274
FXUS61 KALY 070852
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
352 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Morning clouds and a few sprinkles will give way to clearing
and breezy conditions this afternoon, along with mild
temperatures. A reinforcing cold front will bring clouds and
scattered showers to portions of the region Friday, followed by
fair and chilly conditions for Saturday. Low pressure
approaching from the west will bring showers to the region late
Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 350 AM EST, area of low clouds continues to expand south
and east, with leading edge along or just north of I-90. The
southern extent of these clouds may settle a bit farther
southward through daybreak. Also, a few sprinkles were noted
across the Mohawk Valley and into central NYS, some of which may
extend into Schoharie County and the Capital Region around or
shortly after sunrise.

The low clouds may linger through midday for areas near and
north of I-90 before gradually eroding, initially in valleys,
and last across higher terrain.

It will be breezy today as mixing depth increases, with some
gusts of 25-30 mph possible within the Mohawk Valley, Capital
Region and Berkshires, and 20-25 mph elsewhere.

It will remain mild, though cooler than the record breaking
warmth from Wednesday, with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s
for most areas, except 65-70 across the mid Hudson Valley and
lower elevations in NW CT, where more sunshine and added
downsloping warmth is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak shortwave ridge translates across the region tonight with a
period of mainly clear skies and lighter winds. This should
allow temps to drop into the 30s for many areas, with perhaps
some 20s across portions of the southern Adirondacks/Lake George
region. Some clouds and wind should increase toward daybreak
across the SW Adirondacks, allowing temps to rise toward
daybreak.

Upper level shortwave will track across SE Canada Friday into
Friday evening, with an associated cold front trailing from this
feature settling southward across the region. This should bring
increasing cloud coverage Friday afternoon along with some
isolated/scattered rain showers, especially for areas north of
I-90. It will also become quite breezy, with some wind gusts
possibly reaching 30-40 mph in the afternoon, especially within
the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires. Max temps will
be warmest across the mid Hudson Valley where morning sunshine
and downsloping winds allow temps to reach the mid/upper 60s.
Cooler farther north and west, the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s
expected.

Isolated/scattered rain showers may linger Friday evening,
especially across the southern Adirondacks and eastern
Catskills. Some showers may change to snow, especially across
higher elevations above 1500 feet, producing some scattered
coatings to less than an inch of snowfall. Otherwise, clearing
and remaining breezy, with lows in the mid 20s to lower/mid 30s.

Mostly sunny Saturday with clear skies and chilly temperatures
for Saturday night as high pressure builds over the region.
Highs Saturday in the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s, except upper
30s/lower 40s across higher elevations. Lows Saturday night in
the 20s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure approaching from the west will bring increasing
clouds Sunday, with showers developing from west to east in the
afternoon and continuing through Sunday night. Lingering showers
expected Monday with upper level disturbance passing through.
Most probable rainfall amounts across the region are generally
0.10-0.25", though some locally higher amounts could occur
across portions of the Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondacks. Latest LREF
using the Grand Ensemble indicated probability for >0.25"/24
hours (1 PM Sunday - 1 PM Monday) at 30-60% across the region,
greatest across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley, with
probability for >0.50"/24 hours (1 PM Sunday - 1 PM Monday) at
10-30%, again greatest across SW Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley.

Cool for Sunday with highs in the 40s and 50s, warming slightly
into the 50s to lower/mid 60s Monday.

Generally fair weather returns for Tuesday into Wednesday, along
with near seasonable temps (highs in 50s valleys, 40s higher
terrain). Monday morning lows in the mid 30s to lower/mid 40s,
cooling to the mid 20s to lower/mid 30s by Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Fri...VFR conditions should continue for KPOU and KGFL
through the TAF period. For KPSF, confidence is high for periods of
MVFR between 07/07z and 07/14z before conditions improve back to
VFR. For KALB, included a short period of MVFR conditions between
06z and 08z based on latest forecast trends, for that period of
lower ceilings, to include it in the TAF in a TEMPO group. Winds
increase late this morning into this afternoon with gusts reaching
between 15 and 25 knots.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Veterans Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Continued gusty winds will support persistent fire weather
concerns into today and Friday. Humidity levels look to remain
elevated today, with minimum daytime RH of 40 to 60 percent
across southern portions of western New England and the Mid-
Hudson Valley along with west to northwest winds gusting to
20-30 mph this afternoon. On Friday, a drier air mass will see
lower RH values of 30 to 50 percent for areas south of I-90, and
50-70% to the north. In addition, gusty west to northwest winds
may reach 25-35 mph, if not slightly stronger. Additional fire
weather products may therefore be needed both days.

In coordination with fire weather partners in Connecticut and
Massachusetts, a Special Weather Statement was issued for
Litchfield and Berkshire County through 7pm Thursday given gusty
winds that can support fire spread.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Webb
FIRE WEATHER...KL/Picard/JPV