538
FXUS61 KALY 150035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
835 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery indicating plenty of clouds still in place
this evening, with the 00z KALY sounding revealing a significant
inversion around 850 mb keeping low level moisture trapped
beneath. Therefore, have updated the forecast for tonight to
increase cloud cover. Also raised min temperatures a few
degrees in most areas as a result of the added cloud cover.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and cool weather today gives way to increased sun and
breezy conditions tomorrow and Thursday as a moisture starved
cold front pushes through. Then, temperatures trend warmer this
weekend ahead of our next potent cold front and next chance for
widespread rain late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- There is a 25 to 75% chance for temperatures to drop to or
  below 35 degrees late Thursday night into Friday morning,
  necessitating frost advisories or some freezing warnings where
  the growing season is still ongoing in the Hudson Valley and
  Litchfield County.

Discussion:

A dreary October day continues as moisture remains trapped
underneath the low-level inversion seen on the 12 UTC ALY
sounding supporting low stratus and even patchy drizzle.
Temperatures have struggled to warm so lowered highs a bit
compared to the NBM and expect many to only reach into the mid
to upper 50s which is still seasonable for mid-October. As our
mid-level ridge axis in central NY builds further east through
the afternoon, the increased subsidence should help erode the
low clouds/drizzle resulting in breaks of late day sun. While
skies turn partly to mostly clear for the first half of the
night, a moisture starved cold front and shortwave trough
marches southeastward out of Canada late tonight into tomorrow
morning. This will usher in additional clouds for a period with
winds shifting to the north-northwest and becoming gusty in its
wake. Expecting breezy winds through much of the day tomorrow as
morning clouds give way to increased afternoon sun. The 25th
and 75th NBM guidance shows wind gusts ranging from 15 to 25mph
for much of eastern NY and western New England, especially as
skies turn clearer and the boundary layer deepens during the
afternoon. Probabilities for gusts at or above 30mph remain
under 10% so confidence is high that gusts should remain under
this threshold. Otherwise, temperatures should remain seasonable
rising into the mid to upper 50s (low 60s in the mid-Hudson
Valley).

We remain clear Wed night and while radiational cooling and cold
air advection will help temperatures drop into the upper 20 to
mid-30s, winds will remain elevated sustained 5-10 mph which
should mitigate frost formation. Thursday stays clear as
subsidence builds in the wake of the departing shortwave and
high pressure from the Great Lakes expands eastward. The sfc
pressure gradient between the incoming high and departing sfc
low remains tight enough to support continued breezy winds,
especially given sunny skies and deeper boundary layer mixing.
The 25th to 75th percentile wind gust guidance from the NBM
ranges from 20 to 25mph with even 10 to 25% chance for winds to
reach or exceed 30mph in western New England and the Taconics.
In addition, the north-northwest winds will advect a very dry
air mass into the Northeast with PWATs ~0.25" or about 1 to 2
standard deviations below normal per the NAEFS. Dew points
falling into the 20s and RH values in the 30% range may support
enhanced fire spread, depending on fuels, mainly in southern VT.
Will coordinate with state fire partners to decide if there will
be any fire weather concerns. High pressure moves overhead
heading into Thursday night with winds diminishing. Near ideal
radiational cooling within such a dry air mass will support
chilly temperatures and there is a 25 to 75% chance for
temperatures to drop below 35 degrees where the growing season
is still ongoing (Hudson Valley into Litchfield County).
Therefore, confidence is increasing that we may need frost
advisories or even freeze warnings in at least a portion of
this area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Monitoring a potential strong cold front for Sunday night into
  Monday resulting in our next widespread rain event. There is
  a 50 to 75% chance for at least 0.75" of rain across eastern
  NY and western New England.

Discussion:

High pressure remains overhead on Friday supporting continued
dry and seasonable conditions before an amplifying large scale
ridge from the Ohio Valley builds towards the Northeast. As the
ridge axis and associated warm front lifts into the region,
there is sufficient mid-level moisture to support increased
cloud coverage Fri night into Saturday morning but with dry low-
levels, most showers look confined to the western and southern
Adirondacks where moisture will be higher and the thermal
gradient a bit stronger. POPs are therefore limited to slight
chance and chance in this area. As the ridge axis pushes through
the Northeast on Saturday, the associated warm sector
overspreads the region resulting in a warming temperature trend.
There is a 40 to 70% chance for temperatures on Saturday to
rise above 60 degrees with 50 to 75% chance for temperatures on
Sunday to exceed 65 degrees.

The trough currently impacting the western U.S will evolve as
it traverses the CONUS this week and eventually morph into a
compact shortwave over the MS River Valley later this weekend.
Guidance even suggests it could take on a negative tilt
supporting widespread strong height falls/strong forcing for
ascent, a rather potent cold front and impressive mid and upper
level jet (v-wind component becoming 2 to 3 standard deviations
above normal). In response, large scale ridging amplifies
downstream over the Northeast for Sunday. The latest ensemble
cluster analysis suggests the main points of uncertainty focus
on the exact strength of the ridge and how quickly it shifts to
our east as well as the strength/amplitude of the incoming
shortwave trough. Both impact the exact timing of the heaviest
rainfall. Should the ridge over the Northeast end up being
weaker, the heaviest rain from the incoming potent cold front
looks to occur mainly Sunday evening/night. On the other hand,
if the ridge ends up being stronger, the heaviest rain looks
delayed until late Sunday night or even daytime Monday. Either
way, there is good agreement that this disturbance will result
in a widespread rainfall with the various ensemble clusters
generally supporting 50 to 75% probabilities for at least 0.75"
of rainfall across much of eastern NY and western New England
during the Sunday night to Monday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00z Thursday...Skies did not clear prior to sunset, so
now moisture is expected to get trapped beneath a developing
inversion tonight into early Thursday morning. This will likely
keep mainly BKN-OVC cigs in place at all TAF sites for the first
12-18 hours of the TAF period. Cig heights will be at MVFR
levels tonight, except mainly VFR at KPOU and periods of IFR at
KGFL. With residual low level moisture and moist ground, any
breaks in the clouds could lead to fog development overnight at
KGFL with IFR/LIFR conditions. Since confidence in fog is still
fairly low, will mention prevailing MVFR conditions with TEMPO
for IFR/LIFR between 07z-11z. Low clouds should linger into much
of the morning, then cig heights rise by late Wednesday morning
to early afternoon as a cold front pushes southward across the
area. VFR conditions will also return, with clearing possible
late in the day. Winds will be variable less than 5 kt, then
becoming northerly Wednesday morning and increasing to 10-13 kt
with gusts of 20-25 kt developing behind the cold front.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. Areas FROST.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...07