438
FXUS61 KALY 041013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
613 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Our benign pattern persists with dry conditions and increasing
temperatures kicking off the new work week. An isolated shower
or thunderstorm will be possible Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Thursday afternoons as a result of a weak disturbance, but high
pressure building back in across the region will reinforce
widespread tranquility through the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure continuing to dominate the region will make for
another mostly clear day today with the meager amplification of
geopotential heights aloft translating to slightly warmer
temperatures in comparison to yesterday. Expect highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s across high terrain with mid to upper 80s
in the valleys. It is important to note that skies will be
fairly hazy given the smoke advecting south and east from the
Canadian Wildfires. Please see the Air Quality Alert for
additional details. Lows tonight will also fair on the more
mild side in comparison to night`s previous with values in the
mid 50s to low 60s. However, this will also be related to the
increasing cloud coverage across eastern New York and western
New England resulting from an incoming weak frontal boundary
tonight.

Clouds stick around Tuesday as the aforementioned boundary
slowly sinks south from southeast Canada. Despite this, flat
ridging aloft will allow surface temperatures to remain similar
to those of today. The vast majority of the region will remain
completely dry tomorrow with the primary impact of the boundary
being increased cloud coverage. However, an isolated shower or
rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out in the Southwest
Adirondacks and southern Vermont where upslope flow, closer
adjacency to the boundary and its weak convergence zone, and
position within an anticyclonically curved jet aloft, could
help to overcome counteracting subsidence. Similar conditons can
be expected Wednesday as the boundary sinks farther south
through the region before beginning to become washed out just to
our south, though isolated showers and the occasional
thunderstorm are possible across much of the area. But once
again, most should remain dry with just increased cloud coverage
remaining the primary impact. Highs Wednesday will just a few
degrees cooler given the wind shift and increased cloud cover
resulting from the boundary with lows both Tuesday night and
Wednesday night in the upper 50s to low 60s.

With another surface anticyclone building in across the region,
this time north to south from Quebec, and upper-level ridging
amplifying over the Northeast once again, tranquil conditions
return for the end of the week and into the weekend. From
Thursday through Sunday, temperatures will gradually increase,
starting at values of mid/upper 70s to low 80s Thursday and
rising to the upper 70s to upper 80s or possibly low 90s by
Sunday. Lows during this time will primarily range from the
upper 50s to low 60s. Generally, despite the warming trend,
conditions should remain comfortable as humidity looks to stay
on the lower side, but will continue to monitor trends.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...As of 5:40 AM EDT...Flying conditions
currently range from MVFR with mist at GFL/PSF to VFR at ALB/POU.
Fog/mist should dissipate no later than 12-13z this morning. Then,
hazy skies expected through much of the day, with low-end VFR to
possibly MVFR vsbys due to smoke from Canadian wildfires. For
PSF/ALB, expecting some improvement to the haze and vsbys by mid to
late afternoon. FEW to SCT mid and high clouds develop this
afternoon, lasting through tonight. With a few more clouds and a
light wind remaining tonight, will not include any mention of
fog/mist tonight with this TAF issuance. Winds will increase from
light and variable early this morning to 4-7 kt from the W/NW by
late morning lasting into this evening. Winds remain at 3-5 kt
tonight and shift to the N/NE.

Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
DISCUSSION...Gant
AVIATION...Main