458
FXUS61 KALY 290617
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
117 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers will diminish this morning, allowing
for a partly sunny and brisk Saturday. Clouds will increase
this evening, with a mix of light rain and snow impacting the
region for late tonight into Sunday with moderate snow totals
expected for the western Adirondacks. After a brief break on
Monday, another storm system will bring a more widespread
accumulating snowfall to the region for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Winter Weather Advisory issued for western Adirondacks for
  late tonight into Sunday due NBM probabilities showing a
  50%-70% chance for 4+ inches across northern Herkimer and
  Hamilton Counties

Discussion:

As of 117 AM EST...The large upper level trough that has been
impacting the region is starting to push off to the east across
New England. In the wake of the departing trough, the flow aloft
has continued to shift and is now more northwesterly. The band
of lake-effect snow off Lake Ontario has continued to shift
southward and is now primarily impacting the northern and
eastern Catskills, including southern Schoharie, Greene and
northern Ulster Counties. Some snow showers and flurries are
even making into the mid Hudson Valley and parts of the Taconics
as well. Radar imagery shows the band is fragmented and not
steady snowfall, but periods of light to moderate bursts could
allow for additional accumulation of a coating to an inch or so
over the next few hours. CAMs suggest that this lake effect will
beginning weakening towards daybreak into the morning on
Saturday and should be retracting closer to the lakeshore. Model
soundings shows inversion heights falling through the day on
Saturday, so the main threat for any lake effect across our area
will generally be through sunrise, as the bulk of any
additional activity during the day on Saturday will be mainly
confined to areas across central New York.

After sunrise, some lingering lake clouds are expected for high
terrain areas, but some breaks are expected for the valley
areas. There should be improvement in sky cover through the day
and skies will be partly to mostly sunny by afternoon on
Saturday as high pressure builds over the area. With temps
aloft still chilly, most areas will continue to see highs only
in the 30s. While not as windy as the past few days, it will
still be a little breezy at times, with some gusts reaching 20
mph.

The next storm system will be quickly heading across the Great
Lakes for tonight. Clouds will be quickly increasing this
evening, with skies becoming overcast for tonight. Lows will
bottom out by the late evening in teens and 20s, but temps will
either hold steady or slowly rise for the late night hours
thanks to the increased clouds and a developing south to
southwest flow at low levels.

With the warm advection increasing, periods of light precip will
develop for the late night hours and into the morning on Sunday.
With this type of setup, there may be little or limited precip
across southern areas, but some enhancement is expected across
the Adirondacks, where the southerly flow will upslope the
terrain. For all areas, precip may begin as snow, but it will
transition to rain across most of the area outside of the
Adirondacks and southern Greens. Most of the region will see
just a coating to an inch of snowfall, although the Adirondacks
will see a moderate accumulation, thanks to the upslope flow
producing more precip and temps staying cold enough for frozen
precip. Have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory for N. Herkimer
and Hamilton Counties, where a widespread 4 to 8 inches of
snowfall is anticipated from this system. Most of the precip
will be through the early afternoon hours thanks to the warm
advection/isentropic lift. However, some additional precip (rain
for most of the region) is expected ahead of the storm`s cold
front for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Most areas will
see precip done by 7pm Sunday or so, although some lingering
upslope or lake-enhanced snow showers may continue into the
western Adirondacks for Sunday night. Temps will reach the
lower 40s for valley areas on Sunday, although high terrain
areas will stay in the 30s. In addition, the strong pressure
gradient will keep southerly winds gusty ahead of the cold front
on Sunday, with some gusts up to 30 mph.

Aside from some early in the day snow showers over the western
Adirondacks, high pressure should allow for dry and quiet
weather for Monday into Monday night. It will be partly to
mostly sunny on Monday with highs in the mid 20s to upper 30s.
Some clouds may increase by late Monday night, otherwise it will
dry and cold with lows in the teens and 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:

- Southern stream low pressure system passing from the Northeast
  coast will bring a widespread accumulating snowfall to the
  region for Tuesday into Tuesday Night. Latest NBM
  probabilities show a 30-60% chance for 4+" across the forecast
  area, with the greatest probabilities across the Catskills,
  Capital Region, southern Vermont and Berkshires.


Discussion:

An impactful winter storm is anticipated to start the long term
period. While there is good confidence that a storm will be
tracking close to the Northeast coast for Tuesday into Tuesday
night, there still remains questions regarding the exact storm
track and QPF amounts.

A southern stream low pressure area will be lifting from the
Deep South towards the Southeast coast, where an additional area
of low pressure will reform near the mid Atlantic coast for
Tuesday afternoon and lift northeast towards the New England
coast for Tuesday night. Models have been different regarding
how close to the coast the storm tracks, the strength of the low
pressure area, and how far north the precip shield will be.

We are fairly confident that temps (both at the surface and
aloft) will be fairly cold over most of the area, allowing for
any precip to be in the form of snow. The exception may be far
southern mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, where some rain could mix
in if the storm track is further north. With the differing model
solutions, we have closely followed the model blend. Latest NBM
shows 30-60% of 4+", with the highest values in the Catskills,
Capital Region, southern VT and Berkshires. Models have hinted
at a strong gradient on the northern side of the storm, and this
is especially seen in the solutions showing a strong (sub-990
mb) low off the coast. This widespread snowfall will likely have
an impact on the Tuesday evening commute and may be the first
widespread accumulating snowfall for the bulk of the region.
Some solutions have shown as heavy accumulation at times. NBM
probabilities remain in the 15-30% range for 10+", which is
fairly noteworthy given this is still 4+ days out. While it`s
not a guarantee for widespread heavy snowfall, it`s certainly a
high enough percentage to continue to closely watch model
trends. Guidance seems to suggest the storm will wind down on
Tuesday night, with dry weather returning by Wednesday morning.

Behind this storm system, temps appear to remain below normal
for the mid to late week, with highs only in the 20s and 30s,
and overnight lows in the teens (with even some single digits by
the late week). At this point, no additional impactful systems
are anticipated for the late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z/Sun...Lake effect snow has exited the TAF sites.
With high pressure building into the region, dry weather and
mainly VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF
period. Some continued upslope flow could lead to mixed VFR/MVFR
cigs until around 09-10z/Sat at KPSF. Following a partly/mostly
sunny day on Saturday, clouds will increase and thicken
Saturday evening but bases will remain at or above 10 kft up to
06z/Sun. West to northwesterly winds between 10-15 kt with some
gusts 20-25 kt are expected overnight into Saturday afternoon
before diminishing to light to calm by Saturday evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday
     for NYZ032-033.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...33