108
FXUS61 KALY 011028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
628 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 420 AM...The wind advisory has been cancelled as surface
observations have consistently reported sub-advisory gusts
across the previous advisory area. Additionally, the 850mb LLJ,
pressure gradient, and cold air advection that drove the strong
wind gusts have weakened, thereby allowing the winds to weaken.
Breezy conditions will remain in place today, especially
throughout the morning, so loose objects are best off remaining
secured. See the discussion below for additional details.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
November kicks off on a breezy and seasonably chilly, though
largely dry, start today as our end of the week low pressure
system continues to depart to the northeast. Sunday will see a
continuation to dry conditions with much decreased winds and
seasonable temperatures before additional chances for
precipitation come shortly into the new work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
We welcome November 2025 today with brisk conditions in the wake
of the still departing low pressure system that brought
widespread rainfall at the end of this past work week. The
farther departure and weakening of the cyclone will
consequently slacken the pressure gradient across the region;
weaken and shift the 850mb LLJ to the east; and weaken the cold
air advection in its wake, thereby significantly decreasing the
magnitude of sustained wind and wind gust speeds. However, as
these elements will remain elevated in strength through this
afternoon, winds will also remain elevated out of the northwest with
gusts reaching anywhere from 15 to 30 mph with isolated gusts
up to 40 mph possible especially across higher terrain through
this morning. But as high pressure encroaches farther upon the
region and upper level troughing also shifts eastward, lingering
morning lake effect showers will be cut off such that
regionwide dry conditions will be reinforced by this afternoon.
Highs today will be seasonably chilly with upper 30s to low 40s
across higher terrain and mid 40s to low 50s in the valleys.
Tonight, winds decrease further, becoming light still out of the
northwest, with tranquility persisting. Lows will drop to
rather chilly values of low/mid 20s to low 30s. Don`t forget to
turn those clocks back!

Sunday features a continuation to dry, near seasonable weather
as the aforementioned surface anticyclone overspreads the
region. Winds will therefore be light and highs will be similar
to, though a few degrees milder than, today. Sunday night`s lows
will also be similar to tonight`s, with values in the upper 20s
to mid 30s. And despite a warm front tracking through the
region, a lack of moisture will mean dry conditions remain
unchanged. In the wake of the warm front, highs Monday will see
a moderation to the above normal values of upper 40s to upper
50s with pockets of near 60 in the Mid-Hudson Valley. And
despite the eastward and eventual offshore shift of the surface
high and attendant flat ridging aloft, conditions will remain
dry throughout the day with clouds increasing ahead of the cold
front associated with the same low as the preceding warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the parent low of the previous warm front slides eastward
across the Hudson Bay Monday evening, its trailing cold front
will traverse the eastern Great Lakes and approach the region
Monday night. Increased moisture and forcing for ascent will
allow showers to develop ahead of the front from northwest to
southeast late Monday evening. Most of the precipitation looks
to be limited to areas north of the Capital District courtesy of
upslope enhancement and adjacency to the passage of the low.
However, there are some deterministic model solutions and
ensembles that show showers associated with a southern stream
disturbance advancing northward into southwest New England,
Mid-Hudson Valley, and Catskills. The probability of at least
measurable precipitation (0.01"), according to the 01z NBM,
ranges from about 50 to 100% from the Mid-Hudson Valley
northward through 7 AM Tuesday morning with a fairly significant
drop in such probabilities, 20 to 80%, for at least 0.25". With
this spread, we can have high confidence in measurable
precipitation from Albany northward, but certainly low to medium
confidence in the same for areas southward. But given we are
grasping at amounts well under an inch, this would certainly be
more beneficial precipitation and would not pose any
hydrological concerns. And, given that this is a fairly
progressive front and most precipitation will be falling
overnight, some snow can be expected to mix in with rain at
higher elevations where temperatures will fall to or near
freezing. That said, lows Monday night will be in the low 30s to
low 40s.

Cool, cyclonic flow in the wake of the front and associated
upper trough will allow some light lake effect showers to linger
in the Southwest Adirondacks and possibly the Eastern Catskills
TUesday while dry conditions return elsewhere. Highs Tuesday
will be in the mid/upper 40s to upper 50s with lows falling to
the upper 30s to upper 30s Tuesday night. Additional chances
for nuisance precipitation come Wednesday and possibly Thursday
with a passing shortwave disturbance before a high pressure
builds in across the region for the end of the work week. High
temperatures Wednesday through Friday will be fairly similar
with values primarily spanning the 40s and 50s. Lows Wednesday
night will be in the 30s to low 40s. Thursday night lows will be
in the 20s to low 30s before Friday`s lows moderate back to
similar values as will be seen Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...Primarily VFR conditions are expected for
this upcoming TAF as weak high pressure builds across the region
behind a departing surface low across Nova Scotia. Lingering
MVFR ceilings are expected this morning mainly at KPSF/KALB, but
these should increase above 3000 ft AGL with increased mixing
later this morning. West to northwest winds will be in place
through the TAF period with some gusts around 20-30 kt during
the daytime. These will subside below 10 kt this evening,
becoming light & variable by midnight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...37
SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...17