


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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428 FXUS61 KALY 080628 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 228 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern will be in place across eastern New York and western New England for going into the weekend and early next week, with near daily chances of showers and storms for most. Though it will be humid, temperatures will be slightly cooler compared to previous days with values closer to typical mid-July normals. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for areas south and east of the Capital District today with the primary threat being strong to locally damaging wind gusts. - All showers and thunderstorms tomorrow will have the capability of producing locally heavy downpours which could lead to localized ponding of water in poor drainage areas. - Heat Advisory in effect for portions of the Mid Hudson Valley with PM heat indices of around 95-100 degrees. Discussion: 06z surface analysis showed a cold front stretching from central Ohio northeast across much of New York state into central Maine. This front has slowly been tracking south across the region over the last 24 hours, as has lead to development of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it through the daytime yesterday. More of the same can be expected today, as the front continues its slow movement south. The cold front should be located across the southernmost CWA by early afternoon, and will serve as the focus point for additional shower/storm development again this afternoon and evening. Like yesterday, there is a low threat of storms becoming severe thanks to the very warm and humid air mass increasing instability and water loading favorable for downdrafts/damaging winds. While the greatest severe threat will remain further south into the Mid Atlantic, the Storm Prediction Center does maintain a Level 1 (marginal) risk for much of the Mid Hudson Valley into northwest Connecticut and western Massachusetts. That being said, remain in line with previous thinking that the heavy rainfall threat is greater given high PWATs and additional moisture from the remnants of Chantal interacting with the slow moving front. WPC maintains a Level 2 (slight) risk of excessive rainfall across the Mid Hudson Valley into northwest Connecticut, where a Flood Watch has been coordinated with surrounding offices due to the threat of subsequent urban and poor drainage flooding from the heavy rain. Despite the cloud cover, it will be quite warm and humid once again today, especially nearer to the front across the Mid Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut where moisture will pool leading to higher dewpoints. Have coordinated a heat advisory for these locations as peak heat indices climb to around 95-100 degrees this afternoon/early evening. Even though the front will sag south of the area, our weather will remain active for the reminder of the short term period as we remain locked in near zonal to southwest flow aloft, which will be filled with several weak shortwaves and disturbances. The next highest chance for widespread precip will come Thursday with a shortwave passing just to our north with a renewed surge of moisture into the area. Highs will range from the mid 70s (terrain) to upper 80s/near 90 (valleys) today and Wednesday, with slight improvement to the mid 70s (terrain) to low 80s (valleys) Thursday. Lows over the period will also gradually decrease to the upper 50s to upper 60s by Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Message: - Active weather persists into early next week with oppressive heat remaining at bay. Discussion: While each day will not be a washout by any means (it will be more dry than wet), daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist into this weekend and early next week as we remain in a shortwave filled southwest to zonal flow pattern aloft. Our best shot at a precip-free day looks to be Saturday as ridging briefly builds into the area before getting shunted back south Sunday. Thankfully, the oppressive heat will remain at bay with daily highs in the 70s/80s and overnight lows in the 50s/60s, though it will feel muggy at times with dewpoints in the 60s/low 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06z/Wed...VFR conditions ongoing at all the terminals as our cold front continues to slowly track south and east through eastern NY tonight. Given very humid conditions and partial clearing at times tonight, some patchy MVFR cigs are possible at all terminals between 07 and 10 UTC but given low confidence, we removed MVFR mention from the TAFs with this update. Our cold front continues to slowly drift south and east this morning, shifting south of ALB and PSF by 17 - 19 UTC with POU likely remaining mainly south of the front most of the day. With such a humid air mass continuing over POU and with additional disturbances tracking overhead, renewed thunderstorms and shower activity is likely this afternoon into this evening. Scattered thunderstorms looks to initiate around POU by 17- 18 UTC with MVFR flying conditions likely during any storm. Brief IFR vis cannot be ruled out during any heavy downpours but not enough confidence to include IFR at this time. Scattered storms continue through early evening before storms diminish by 03 UTC. Light southerly winds tonight before the front pushes through GFL shortly before 12 UTC resulting in a northeasterly wind shift with winds becoming sustained 5-10kts. Winds shift to the west/northwest at ALB and PSF by 17-18 UTC as the front arrives with sustained winds 5-9kts and gusts up to 15kts. POU remains ahead of the front today maintaining west/southwest winds sustained 5-9kts and gusts up to 15kts. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013. Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight for CTZ001-013. NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064>066. Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight for NYZ065-066. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speck SHORT TERM...Speck LONG TERM...Speck AVIATION...Speciale