


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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960 FXUS61 KALY 070031 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 831 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions continue into tomorrow with chances for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Unsettled conditions continue into Tuesday before dry conditions return briefly for Wednesday. The rest of the week will come with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, though oppressive heat does not look to pose an issue for the foreseeable future. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... .Update...As of 8:30 PM EDT...Heat advisory has been allowed to expire as scheduled given heat indices now below 95F region- wide. We also did a forecast update to make some minor adjustments, including to temperatures which are running on the warm side in the valleys and on the cool side in the high terrain. With clear skies and generally light winds, we should see temperatures drop quicker than the NBM forecast for the more sheltered areas through the next few hours. We also dropped dew points from the Capital District westwards by a few to several degrees to better align with the current obs. Also added some (very) patchy fog overnight tonight given current T/Td spreads. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track with more details below... .Previous...Ridging aloft driving dry conditions across most of the region has flattened as a result of a deepening shortwave trough upstream over the western Great Lakes. The loss of daytime heating will yield the end to all shower activity this evening, such that regionwide dry conditions will prevail once again. The overnight period will therefore also be dry with the ridge looking to potentially undergo some minor amplification and surface high pressure remaining nearby. Muggy conditions persist overnight with low temperatures only falling to the 60s with pockets of 70s in valley areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message: - Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible in the Southwest Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley Monday afternoon with the prime threats being strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours. - Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Monday evening through Tuesday, resulting from both the remnants of what is now Tropical Storm Chantal and a stalled frontal boundary. Discussion: Tranquility lingers into tomorrow morning with conditions remaining hot and humid as deep southerly flow advects tropical moisture into the region. However, with the anticipation of increased cloud cover over the region, air temperatures will not achieve values as high as today. Expect low 80s to low 90s with heat indices ranging from the low 80s to upper 90s. Additional heat advisories may be needed in portions of the Hudson and Mohawk River Valleys, but have held off with this package so as not to pose confusion in an overlap with the advisory that is currently in effect. Outside of temperatures, tomorrow`s forecast sustains a bit of complexity. With very warm, moist antecedent conditions and anticipated breaks of sun through inconsistent cloud cover, destabilization of the atmosphere will be easily achieved, especially along and north of I-90 where morning sun will give way to increasing cloud cover later in the day as a weak shortwave aloft and area of low pressure riding along a surface cold front approach from the northwest. South of here, clouds, though inconsistent in coverage as previously stated, will be on the increase ahead of the remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm Chantal and therefore lessen the extent of instability achieved in comparison to areas north. High pressure over the western Atlantic and the aforementioned shortwave trough will compress the moist conveyer belt along the Eastern Coastline, allowing anomalous moisture to stream into the region ahead of the remnants` weak height falls. All this said, there will be two areas of showers and potential thunderstorms that subsequently impact the region tomorrow. Ahead of the aforementioned cold front and shortwave, SBCAPE values around 1500 to 2000 J/kg will intersect about 20 to 30 kt of 0-6km shear and mid-level lapse rates around 6.0 C/km. With near unidirectional flow throughout the column running nearly parallel to the incoming boundary, some marginally organized convection will become possible across the Southwest Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley where a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is currently in place. The greatest threat with any isolated severe thunderstorms will be strong to locally damaging wind gusts with warm cloud processes promoting heavy downpours. South of these areas, the moisture surging ahead of the very diffuse, remnant circulation of Chantal will intersect SBCAPE values ranging from 1000 to 1500 J/kg, mid- level lapse rates around 5.5 J/kg, and shear around 15 to 20 kt. Low-level southerly, becoming southwesterly throughout the column, promotes more discrete cells with unlikely organization given the very weak dynamic support. And while warm cloud processes here will also promote heavy downpours, no severe thunderstorms are anticipated. In fact, latest CAMs show little in the way of even showers within the favored areas of the Eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, and southwest New England. This is likely due to the counteracting subsidence from the departing ridge and the consensus in the more easterly track of Chantal`s remnant circulation. However, that said, presently Chantal has tracked farther westward than what was previously thought, placing it farther inland into North Carolina. Therefore, it is believed that there is a possibility that the CAMs are underdone in terms of their coverage of showers and potential thunderstorms in these areas tomorrow. Should the circulation, though weak, push farther north and east through tomorrow, especially if the high in the Atlantic retrogrades toward the East Coast as some sources of guidance would suggest, then increased coverage in showers and thunderstorms could be realized. The good news, however, is that even if this solution comes to fruition and we get additional showers and thunderstorms in these areas tomorrow, we have been dry enough recently that there are no hydrological concerns even with the anticipation of embedded heavy downpours. As the remnant circulation of Chantal continues to weaken and track north and east tomorrow, the aforementioned cold frontal boundary will slowly sink south and east, its associated shortwave weakening aloft. The loss of daytime heating tomorrow will put an end to any thunderstorms that developed as a result of the progression of the front and as a result of Chantal and mere light showers will remain. Throughout the night, however, coverage of showers are expected to decrease as flow turning to the southwest cuts off the moisture supply. Low temperatures will fall to the low 60s to low 70s. The cold frontal boundary and low pressure strung to it will become stalled just to our south Tuesday night, allowing showers and potential thunderstorms to become reinvigorated for areas within and south of the Capital District Tuesday. While continuing to be very humid, lower air temperatures should mitigate the necessity for additional Heat Advisories. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s. The SPC also has a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms outlined for portions of the Eastern Catskills, Mid- Hudson Valley, and Southwest New England on Tuesday with the primary threat once again being strong to locally damaging winds, but confidence is low in this aspect of the forecast. And as Tuesday transitions into Tuesday night, the stalled boundary will gradually exit, decreasing the coverage of showers until all cease early Wednesday morning. Dry conditions will then be in place courtesy of nearby surface high pressure and zonal flow aloft Wednesday. Low temperatures Tuesday night will fall to the upper 50s to upper 60s and highs Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Our brief precipitation respite continues into the overnight period Wednesday with low temperatures falling to the upper 50s to upper 60s. Much of the remainder of the extended forecast period, however, will sustain chances for showers and thunderstorm as yet another unsettled pattern becomes locked in. Though there are still some timing differences in the medium to long range guidance regarding onset of rain Thursday, more of a consensus has been formed about the responsible system. A primary, inland low will track through southeast Canada beneath a potent shortwave trough whilst a secondary, coastal low forms east of the Mid-Atlantic. As a result, showers will overspread the region Thursday from northwest to southeast and from south to north. Though the coastal low will depart to the northeast Thursday night, lingering moisture and forcing from the primary low now overhead will allow light showers to persist. Though spatial spread in showers will decrease through Friday and into Saturday, additional rounds and some thunderstorms are expected especially within, south, and east of the Capital District courtesy of a frontal boundary and area of low pressure stalled to the south of our region. At this time, precipitation looks light and not continuous, so no hydrological concerns are anticipated. Oppressive heat and humidity is also not expected throughout the long term period with highs generally in the 70s and 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00z Tuesday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 7:10 PM EDT, and should remain VFR through at least the next several hours with just a few mid and high clouds around. Low stratus should develop for a few hours at POU and possibly PSF around sunrise, lasting through mid to late morning with borderline VFR/MVFR cigs. ALso, while confidence is low, some briefly patchy fog can`t totally be ruled out at GFL tonight, especially if winds are lighter than expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions with FEW to SCT mid and high clouds prevail through the end of the TAF period. Only exception is for scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms around at POU and PSF from late tomorrow morning through mid to late afternoon. Have used prob30 groups to highlight potential for brief MVFR to IFR vsby reductions in any heavier showers/storms. An isolated shower or storm also can`t be ruled out at GFL towards 00z Tuesday, but current thinking is that any showers/storms should hold off until after the end of the TAF period. Winds will be at 4-7 kt from the S/SE tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt tomorrow with gusts up to 15-20 kt during the afternoon. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant NEAR TERM...Gant/Main SHORT TERM...Gant LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...Main