428
FXUS61 KALY 080628
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
228 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will be in place across eastern New York
and western New England for going into the weekend and early next
week, with near daily chances of showers and storms for most. Though
it will be humid, temperatures will be slightly cooler compared to
previous days with values closer to typical mid-July normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for areas south and east of
  the Capital District today with the primary threat being strong to
  locally damaging wind gusts.

- All showers and thunderstorms tomorrow will have the capability
  of producing locally heavy downpours which could lead to localized
  ponding of water in poor drainage areas.

- Heat Advisory in effect for portions of the Mid Hudson Valley with
  PM heat indices of around 95-100 degrees.

Discussion:

06z surface analysis showed a cold front stretching from
central Ohio northeast across much of New York state into
central Maine. This front has slowly been tracking south across
the region over the last 24 hours, as has lead to development of
showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it through the
daytime yesterday. More of the same can be expected today, as
the front continues its slow movement south.

The cold front should be located across the southernmost CWA by
early afternoon, and will serve as the focus point for additional
shower/storm development again this afternoon and evening. Like
yesterday, there is a low threat of storms becoming severe thanks to
the very warm and humid air mass increasing instability and
water loading favorable for downdrafts/damaging winds. While the
greatest severe threat will remain further south into the Mid
Atlantic, the Storm Prediction Center does maintain a Level 1
(marginal) risk for much of the Mid Hudson Valley into northwest
Connecticut and western Massachusetts. That being said, remain
in line with previous thinking that the heavy rainfall threat is
greater given high PWATs and additional moisture from the
remnants of Chantal interacting with the slow moving front. WPC
maintains a Level 2 (slight) risk of excessive rainfall across
the Mid Hudson Valley into northwest Connecticut, where a Flood
Watch has been coordinated with surrounding offices due to the
threat of subsequent urban and poor drainage flooding from the
heavy rain.

Despite the cloud cover, it will be quite warm and humid once
again today, especially nearer to the front across the Mid
Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut where moisture will pool
leading to higher dewpoints. Have coordinated a heat advisory
for these locations as peak heat indices climb to around 95-100
degrees this afternoon/early evening.

Even though the front will sag south of the area, our weather
will remain active for the reminder of the short term period as
we remain locked in near zonal to southwest flow aloft, which
will be filled with several weak shortwaves and disturbances.
The next highest chance for widespread precip will come Thursday
with a shortwave passing just to our north with a renewed surge
of moisture into the area.

Highs will range from the mid 70s (terrain) to upper 80s/near 90
(valleys) today and Wednesday, with slight improvement to the mid
70s (terrain) to low 80s (valleys) Thursday. Lows over the period
will also gradually decrease to the upper 50s to upper 60s by
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- Active weather persists into early next week with oppressive
  heat remaining at bay.

Discussion:

While each day will not be a washout by any means (it will be more
dry than wet), daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are
expected to persist into this weekend and early next week as we
remain in a shortwave filled southwest to zonal flow pattern aloft.
Our best shot at a precip-free day looks to be Saturday as ridging
briefly builds into the area before getting shunted back south
Sunday.

Thankfully, the oppressive heat will remain at bay with daily highs
in the 70s/80s and overnight lows in the 50s/60s, though it will
feel muggy at times with dewpoints in the 60s/low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z/Wed...VFR conditions ongoing at all the terminals as our
cold front continues to slowly track south and east through eastern
NY tonight. Given very humid conditions and partial clearing at
times tonight, some patchy MVFR cigs are possible at all terminals
between 07 and 10 UTC but given low confidence, we removed MVFR
mention from the TAFs with this update. Our cold front continues to
slowly drift south and east this morning, shifting south of ALB and
PSF by 17 - 19 UTC with POU likely remaining mainly south of the
front most of the day. With such a humid air mass continuing over
POU and with additional disturbances tracking overhead, renewed
thunderstorms and shower activity is likely this afternoon into this
evening. Scattered thunderstorms looks to initiate around POU by 17-
18 UTC with MVFR flying conditions likely during any storm. Brief
IFR vis cannot be ruled out during any heavy downpours but not
enough confidence to include IFR at this time. Scattered storms
continue through early evening before storms diminish by 03 UTC.

Light southerly winds tonight before the front pushes through GFL
shortly before 12 UTC resulting in a northeasterly wind shift with
winds becoming sustained 5-10kts. Winds shift to the west/northwest
at ALB and PSF by 17-18 UTC as the front arrives with sustained
winds 5-9kts and gusts up to 15kts. POU remains ahead of the front
today maintaining west/southwest winds sustained 5-9kts and gusts up
to 15kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ001-013.
     Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ064>066.
     Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for NYZ065-066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speciale