960
FXUS61 KALY 070031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
831 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions continue into tomorrow with
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Unsettled
conditions continue into Tuesday before dry conditions return
briefly for Wednesday. The rest of the week will come with
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, though oppressive
heat does not look to pose an issue for the foreseeable future.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
.Update...As of 8:30 PM EDT...Heat advisory has been allowed to
expire as scheduled given heat indices now below 95F region-
wide. We also did a forecast update to make some minor
adjustments, including to temperatures which are running on the
warm side in the valleys and on the cool side in the high
terrain. With clear skies and generally light winds, we should
see temperatures drop quicker than the NBM forecast for the more
sheltered areas through the next few hours. We also dropped dew
points from the Capital District westwards by a few to several
degrees to better align with the current obs. Also added some
(very) patchy fog overnight tonight given current T/Td spreads.
Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track with more details
below...

.Previous...Ridging aloft driving dry conditions across most of
the region has flattened as a result of a deepening shortwave
trough upstream over the western Great Lakes. The loss of
daytime heating will yield the end to all shower activity this
evening, such that regionwide dry conditions will prevail once
again. The overnight period will therefore also be dry with the
ridge looking to potentially undergo some minor amplification
and surface high pressure remaining nearby. Muggy conditions
persist overnight with low temperatures only falling to the 60s
with pockets of 70s in valley areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible in the
  Southwest Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley Monday afternoon with
  the prime threats being strong wind gusts and locally heavy
  downpours.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Monday
  evening through Tuesday, resulting from both the remnants of
  what is now Tropical Storm Chantal and a stalled frontal
  boundary.

Discussion:
Tranquility lingers into tomorrow morning with conditions
remaining hot and humid as deep southerly flow advects tropical
moisture into the region. However, with the anticipation of
increased cloud cover over the region, air temperatures will not
achieve values as high as today. Expect low 80s to low 90s with
heat indices ranging from the low 80s to upper 90s. Additional
heat advisories may be needed in portions of the Hudson and
Mohawk River Valleys, but have held off with this package so as
not to pose confusion in an overlap with the advisory that is
currently in effect.

Outside of temperatures, tomorrow`s forecast sustains a bit of
complexity. With very warm, moist antecedent conditions and
anticipated breaks of sun through inconsistent cloud cover,
destabilization of the atmosphere will be easily achieved,
especially along and north of I-90 where morning sun will give
way to increasing cloud cover later in the day as a weak
shortwave aloft and area of low pressure riding along a surface
cold front approach from the northwest. South of here, clouds,
though inconsistent in coverage as previously stated, will be on
the increase ahead of the remnants of what is currently
Tropical Storm Chantal and therefore lessen the extent of
instability achieved in comparison to areas north. High
pressure over the western Atlantic and the aforementioned
shortwave trough will compress the moist conveyer belt along
the Eastern Coastline, allowing anomalous moisture to stream
into the region ahead of the remnants` weak height falls. All
this said, there will be two areas of showers and potential
thunderstorms that subsequently impact the region tomorrow.

Ahead of the aforementioned cold front and shortwave, SBCAPE
values around 1500 to 2000 J/kg will intersect about 20 to 30
kt of 0-6km shear and mid-level lapse rates around 6.0 C/km.
With near unidirectional flow throughout the column running
nearly parallel to the incoming boundary, some marginally
organized convection will become possible across the Southwest
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley where a Marginal Risk (level 1 of
5) for severe weather is currently in place. The greatest threat
with any isolated severe thunderstorms will be strong to
locally damaging wind gusts with warm cloud processes promoting
heavy downpours. South of these areas, the moisture surging
ahead of the very diffuse, remnant circulation of Chantal will
intersect SBCAPE values ranging from 1000 to 1500 J/kg, mid-
level lapse rates around 5.5 J/kg, and shear around 15 to 20 kt.
Low-level southerly, becoming southwesterly throughout the
column, promotes more discrete cells with unlikely organization
given the very weak dynamic support. And while warm cloud
processes here will also promote heavy downpours, no severe
thunderstorms are anticipated. In fact, latest CAMs show little
in the way of even showers within the favored areas of the
Eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, and southwest New England.
This is likely due to the counteracting subsidence from the
departing ridge and the consensus in the more easterly track of
Chantal`s remnant circulation. However, that said, presently
Chantal has tracked farther westward than what was previously
thought, placing it farther inland into North Carolina.
Therefore, it is believed that there is a possibility that the
CAMs are underdone in terms of their coverage of showers and
potential thunderstorms in these areas tomorrow. Should the
circulation, though weak, push farther north and east through
tomorrow, especially if the high in the Atlantic retrogrades
toward the East Coast as some sources of guidance would suggest,
then increased coverage in showers and thunderstorms could be
realized. The good news, however, is that even if this solution
comes to fruition and we get additional showers and
thunderstorms in these areas tomorrow, we have been dry enough
recently that there are no hydrological concerns even with the
anticipation of embedded heavy downpours.

As the remnant circulation of Chantal continues to weaken and
track north and east tomorrow, the aforementioned cold frontal
boundary will slowly sink south and east, its associated
shortwave weakening aloft. The loss of daytime heating tomorrow
will put an end to any thunderstorms that developed as a result
of the progression of the front and as a result of Chantal and
mere light showers will remain. Throughout the night, however,
coverage of showers are expected to decrease as flow turning to
the southwest cuts off the moisture supply. Low temperatures
will fall to the low 60s to low 70s.

The cold frontal boundary and low pressure strung to it will
become stalled just to our south Tuesday night, allowing showers
and potential thunderstorms to become reinvigorated for areas
within and south of the Capital District Tuesday. While
continuing to be very humid, lower air temperatures should
mitigate the necessity for additional Heat Advisories. Highs will
be in the 70s and 80s. The SPC also has a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms outlined for portions of the Eastern
Catskills, Mid- Hudson Valley, and Southwest New England on
Tuesday with the primary threat once again being strong to
locally damaging winds, but confidence is low in this aspect of
the forecast. And as Tuesday transitions into Tuesday night, the
stalled boundary will gradually exit, decreasing the coverage of
showers until all cease early Wednesday morning. Dry conditions
will then be in place courtesy of nearby surface high pressure
and zonal flow aloft Wednesday. Low temperatures Tuesday night
will fall to the upper 50s to upper 60s and highs Wednesday will
be in the upper 70s to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Our brief precipitation respite continues into the overnight
period Wednesday with low temperatures falling to the upper 50s
to upper 60s. Much of the remainder of the extended
forecast period, however, will sustain chances for showers and
thunderstorm as yet another unsettled pattern becomes locked in.
Though there are still some timing differences in the medium to
long range guidance regarding onset of rain Thursday, more of a
consensus has been formed about the responsible system. A
primary, inland low will track through southeast Canada beneath
a potent shortwave trough whilst a secondary, coastal low forms
east of the Mid-Atlantic. As a result, showers will overspread
the region Thursday from northwest to southeast and from south
to north. Though the coastal low will depart to the northeast
Thursday night, lingering moisture and forcing from the primary
low now overhead will allow light showers to persist. Though
spatial spread in showers will decrease through Friday and into
Saturday, additional rounds and some thunderstorms are expected
especially within, south, and east of the Capital District
courtesy of a frontal boundary and area of low pressure stalled
to the south of our region. At this time, precipitation looks
light and not continuous, so no hydrological concerns are
anticipated. Oppressive heat and humidity is also not expected
throughout the long term period with highs generally in the 70s
and 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z Tuesday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals
as of 7:10 PM EDT, and should remain VFR through at least the
next several hours with just a few mid and high clouds around.
Low stratus should develop for a few hours at POU and possibly
PSF around sunrise, lasting through mid to late morning with
borderline VFR/MVFR cigs. ALso, while confidence is low, some
briefly patchy fog can`t totally be ruled out at GFL tonight,
especially if winds are lighter than expected. Otherwise, VFR
conditions with FEW to SCT mid and high clouds prevail through
the end of the TAF period. Only exception is for scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms around at POU and PSF
from late tomorrow morning through mid to late afternoon. Have
used prob30 groups to highlight potential for brief MVFR to IFR
vsby reductions in any heavier showers/storms. An isolated
shower or storm also can`t be ruled out at GFL towards 00z
Tuesday, but current thinking is that any showers/storms should
hold off until after the end of the TAF period. Winds will be at
4-7 kt from the S/SE tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt tomorrow
with gusts up to 15-20 kt during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant/Main
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Main