822
FXUS61 KALY 271744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1244 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will set up across the Adirondacks late this
afternoon into tonight before dropping southward into the
Mohawk Valley and Northern Catskills on Friday. Several inches
of accumulation is expected where the band sets up for an
extended period of time. Drier weather returns on Saturday as
high pressure returns before another system brings rain and snow
on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

- A period of lake effect snow is expected later today through
  Friday across portions of the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and
  northern Catskills. Snowfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are
  expected in the most persistent lake effect bands.

- A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect for Herkimer and
  Hamilton Counties with Winter Weather Advisories for Fulton,
  Montgomery, and Schoharie Counties.

- Wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph, especially on Friday, could
  lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Discussion:

Update as of 940 am EST...Happy Thanksgiving!!! Clouds quickly
increased across the forecast area in the cyclonic flow with
another disturbance/sfc trough approaching west-central NY.
This update is to make it cloudy/mostly cloudy across eastern NY
and western New England with brisk winds and scattered snow
showers/flurries especially west of the Hudson River Valley. Max
temps will be in the 30s to lower 40s (Capital District/Mid
Hudson Valley) with upper 20s over the higher terrain.

Previous Discussion...

A nearly vertically-stacked low pressure system will slowly lift
northward into Quebec through tomorrow as large scale troughing
builds over the region. The return of colder air aloft will aid
in a period of lake effect snow through the remainder of the
week. The lake effect bands have already begun to develop within
the current southwesterly flow, which is mainly to the west of
our county warning area. This southwesterly flow will continue
through much of Thanksgiving Day which will lead to most areas
seeing dry weather. The exception would be whether any fragments
of the band off Lake Erie extend as far inland into parts of
the Mohawk Valley and Upper Hudson Valley. However, temperatures
above freezing and the light nature of the precipitation will
lead to little or no snow accumulation. The lake effect band
off Ontario will remain well north of Route 28 in northern
Herkimer County through this afternoon. Outside of the lake
effect, it will be a breezy and cooler day with highs in the
lower 30s to lower 40s.

Tonight, the passage of an upper level shortwave will result in
flow shifting more west to northwesterly. This will slowly drop
the band southward toward the Mohawk Valley. A blend of the
latest CAMs suggest the band could reach the Mohawk Valley and
Thruway corridor by daybreak Friday (4-7am). There will likely
be some weakening and fluctuations in the band location Friday
morning due to the passage of the trough and increasing low-
level directional shear. However, the shear will weaken with
increasing lake induced instability and a more organized multi
lake connection (mostly with Georgian Bay) for a more intense
band by Friday afternoon into Friday evening. While confidence
remains lower on band placement on Friday, all scenarios from
the band setting up right along the Thruway or just south remain
on the table. The latest CAMs have, however, trended slightly
farther north with the band placement near the Thruway corridor
during its most intense time. Where this band does set up, 1 to
2 inch per hour rates can occur with near whiteout conditions
possible at times due to the gusty winds and high snowfall
rates. This could impact Thanksgiving holiday travel, especially
if the band sets up right over the Thruway. This band will
extend well inland with some light accumulations possible even
into parts of the Hudson Valley and into western New England,
including the Capital District. Outside of the lake effect,
upslope snow showers are expected across southern Vermont into
western Massachusetts with some light accumulations, especially
in the higher elevations, as well as additional light
accumulations for the Adirondacks. The upper trough will depart
the region Friday night into early Saturday as high pressure
builds in from the west. This will result in gradual weakening
of the band with the band diminishing by Saturday morning.

Lake Effect Snow Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain
as is with this forecast cycle. 6 to 12 inches of snow still
seems likely in the most persistent bands within the warning
areas. However, will have to monitor where the band sets up on
Friday which may result in the need for upgrades for some
locations east of southern Herkimer County with some CAMs
suggesting localized areas of 6 or more inches within the band.

High temperatures Friday will only reach the 30s in most areas
and the upper 20s in the higher elevations. Wind gusts on the
order of 30 to 40 mph will make it feel even colder. Saturday
will feature more sun and less wind but it will remain chilly
with highs once again in the upper 20s to upper 30s, except
lower 40s in the mid-Hudson Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After a drier Saturday, the next low pressure system will cross
the region on Sunday. The primary low will track northeastward
across the Great Lakes. Some cold air will likely linger early
on Sunday for a period of snow, then warmer air returns changing
valley areas to rain and a rain/snow mix for the higher
elevations. Some light snow accumulations could occur on Sunday,
especially for the higher terrain. Temperatures Sunday rebound
to the mid-30s to mid-40s.

The system`s cold front crosses the region Sunday night with
colder air returning once again. Another brief lake effect
response could occur on Monday but looks to be short lived with
lighter accumulations compared to later this week as high
pressure quickly builds overhead.

Attention next turns to Tuesday-Wednesday of next week as long
range models are hinting at a southern stream shortwave
developing a surface low near the Gulf Coast and intensifies as
it tracks northeastward near or off the East Coast. Spread is
large on the overall track of this system. If a track is closer
to the coast, a widespread precipitation event could occur
across the area. A track farther off the coast could result in
less or no precipitation. At this time, thermal profiles would
support mostly snow should precipitation occur. Trends on this
event will be monitored over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Friday...VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites
this afternoon despite clouds largely remaining in place in the
wake of a potent cold front. Lake effect snow has already begun
as a result, but generally terminals should not be impacted
until tomorrow morning when the bands shift southward. Latest
satellite imagery indicates some pockets of clearing that will
eventually expand to break up ceilings for brief times late this
evening. However, with moisture continually streaming into the
region off the Lakes, breaks in ceilings will not be long
lasting.

VFR conditions should remain consistent, however, through much
of the 18z TAF period outside of any snow showers that drift
into terminal boundaries and force MVFR to IFR conditions. KGFL
looks to be the first to be potentially impacted tonight, but
confidence is not high on whether the band will reach far enough
eastward into the terminal. Therefore, a PROB30 group was added
for those aforementioned MVFR conditions. Greater, though still
only low to moderate, confidence exists in KGFL/KALB/KPSF seeing
snow showers tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon as
the primary lake effect band and surrounding showers drift
southward. Here, IFR conditions are more likely, especially for
KPSF where upslope flow will enhance snowfall. Additional
details will be provided as confidence increases with future
iterations. Winds throughout the period will be breezy out of
the southwest with sustained speeds ranging from about 10 to 15
kt with gusts of 20 to 25 kt.

Outlook...
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...SHSN...RA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ032-033.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for NYZ038.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for NYZ039-040-047-082.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15/33
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...37