429
FXUS61 KALY 260147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
947 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
As low pressure tracks from the lower Great Lakes tonight into
northern New York and New England on Saturday, a cold front will
move east across our area. This system will bring widespread
showers and a some thunderstorms through Saturday. Much cooler
temperatures and windy conditions develop Saturday night into
Sunday, with scattered rain showers and mountain rain or snow
showers. Drier and milder weather return Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

 -  Widespread rainfall across the region tonight through
    Saturday, with probability for greater than 1.00" of 40-70%.

 -  Isolated to scattered thunderstorms(20-40% chance) expected
    Saturday afternoon into early evening, with locally gusty
    winds possible.

Discussion:

Update as of 945 PM EDT...Reflectivity is beginning to increase
across the region per KENX, though much of it is not reaching
the ground with very dry air in place. Expect this to begin to
change over the next several hours with increasing moisture
transport and low-level WAA into the area, which will lead to
vertical saturation and more widespread rain showers. Mainly
updated POPs to reflect latest guidance with the remainder of
the forecast on track. See previous discussion below...

Previous Discussion...A warm front will continue to gradually
lift north of the area this evening, with some showers and
isolated thunder across far northern areas. Later this evening
and especially into the overnight hours, showers will become
more widespread as larger scale forcing increases as an upper
level short wave and associated surface cyclone approach from
the west. Deep layer moisture increases as PWAT anomalies rise
to +2 to +3 tonight into Sat morning, so brief periods of heavy
rain may occur at times especially within any embedded elevated
convective elements. With clouds/showers occurring, low
temperatures will be mild with mainly 50s expected.

Widespread showers continue through much of Sat morning. It
appears there will then be a break during the late morning to
early afternoon hours as much of our area gets into a pseudo
warm sector ahead of a cold front approaching from central NY.
Most CAMs continue to depict a broken line of showers/T-storms
developing in the warm/moist environment. Threat of severe
storms still looks rather low, with forecast SBCAPE ~500-800
J/Kg from Albany south/east. With 0-6 km shear of 40-50 kt, some
storms may briefly become organized with some strong wind gusts
possible. High temperatures could spike into the lower 70s in
lower elevations prior to the cold front passage late afternoon.
Timing of the front still somewhat in question, but overall
trend has been for a slower passage. Total rainfall expected to
range from 0.75-1.50", which should not result in any hydro
concerns given recent dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 -  Gusty northwest winds Sunday with a 30-70+% chance for
    gusts exceeding 40 mph (greatest chances across higher
    terrain).

Discussion:

As the primary surface cyclone tracks into Maine, the system`s
upper level low will move into northern NY/VT Sat night. This
will result in wrap-around/upslope showers developing across
parts of the Adirondacks into the southern Greens of VT.
Temperatures get cold enough late Sat night into Sun morning for
rain showers to mix with/change to snow showers mainly above
1500 ft. A dusting of snow may occur in some of these higher
terrain spots. Otherwise, widely scattered rain showers expected
across most of the area. Lows Sat night will be much cooler
ranging from 30s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 40s in lower
elevations.

NW winds will become quite gusty on Sun due to pressure
gradient increasing, as low pressure tracks into E. Maine and
high pressure builds east across the upper/central Great Lakes.
Peak wind gusts of 30-40 mph expected especially from around
I-90 south. Precip. chances will lower by late Sun afternoon, as
the upper low moves farther away. Highs will be below normal,
with 40s in the mountains and 50s in valleys.

Dry conditions with clearing skies expected Sun night, as high
pressure builds in from the west. There will still be a
persistent NW breeze as the center of the high remains to our
west. Lows will range from 30s in the higher terrain to
lower/mid 40s in lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Potential for severe thunderstorms (15-29% chance) Tuesday
  afternoon and evening mainly north and west of the Capital
  District.

Discussion:

High pressure will be positioned across the region on Mon,
bringing dry/clear conditions along with a milder air mass.
Temperatures will warm back to above normal levels Mon
afternoon.

The next chance of impactful weather looks to be late Tue into
Tue night, with strong to severe T-storms possible. A warm S-SW
flow will occur ahead of a strong cold front approaching from
the Great Lakes. highs could approach 80F in lower elevations.
Based on the latest model guidance timing looks to be the main
issue as it will depend on if storms are able to maintain
strength after dark, as the cold front is expected to move
through our area Tue night. For now, the Storm Prediction Center
has the NW third of our area under an equivalent Slight Risk
(level 2 of 5) for severe storms. The wind field looks quite
strong with 0-6 km shear of 40+ kt. So it will depend on
magnitude of instability after dark. Will continue to monitor
trends.

Behind the cold front, it will turn cooler and drier on Wed.
Highs still look slightly above normal with a NW breeze. High
pressure builds in Wed night into Thu with dry conditions and
near normal temperatures. The next system looks to approach Thu
night into Fri with chances for showers increasing.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions to start are expected to deteriorate into tonight
with an approaching system and frontal boundary. Plentiful lift
and moisture will result in scattered rain showers this evening
becoming more widespread beginning after 06-08Z, which will
continue into the mid morning hours Saturday. This activity will
produce MVFR to IFR ceilings, with visibilities expected to
remain in the MVFR range. Widespread rain will become more
scattered in nature by 26/18Z, though MVFR ceilings are favored
for the remainder of the period. Late in the period, there is
potential for an isolated thunderstorm in the vicinity of
KALB/KPOU, but low confidence precludes mention in the current
TAF.

Winds will increase out of the south with gusts to around 15-20
kts this evening, veering to the southwest by midday Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35 kts. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/Speck
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speck