100
FXUS61 KALY 101425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1025 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A period of above normal temperatures continues this
afternoon and persists into midweek, as high pressure will be in
control. Humidity levels will remain somewhat pleasant through
Monday before increasing Tuesday into Wednesday. The next chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur Wednesday into
Wednesday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.UPDATE...
As of 1025 AM EDT...Another nice summer day is setting up to
close the weekend for eastern NY and western New England with
moderate humidity levels with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s
under a strong mid and upper level ridge. Max temps will run
above normal by 4-7 degrees with highs in the upper 80s to
around 90F in the valleys with upper 70s to mid 80s over the
hills and mtns due to the strong subsidence with the ridge. The
12Z KALY sounding is rather dry with a PWAT of 1.12" which is
near to slightly below normal for the this date in August.
Outside some scattered cirrus or a few scattered cumulus expect
sunny/mostly sunny conditions. The morning fog was removed from
the forecast with slight adjustments to hourly T/TD trends and
sky cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message:

- A period of hot weather is expected this Monday through
  Wednesday. Feels-like temperatures will be between 90-95F
  across valley areas.

- Dry weather is expected through Tuesday with a cold front
  bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms on
  Wednesday.

An upper level ridge will build over the region today and remain
in place through Tuesday. Surface high pressure will remain
rather stationary just off the mid-Atlantic and New England
coast. Plenty of subsidence with these features will result in a
period of dry weather which will continue through Tuesday. 850
hPa temperatures will continue to slowly rise into Tuesday which
will lead to a gradual warming trend. High temperatures today
will reach the 80s to around 90 for most areas then increase
into the mid-80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
will generally remain below record highs at the climate sites
of Albany, Glens Falls and Poughkeepsie, though Glens Falls will
challenge a record on Tuesday with the current record high at
92 F. A tongue of lwo-level drier air from the surface high
will keep humidity levels at bay through Monday with dewpoints
remaining in the mid-50s to lower 60s, then begin to increase
on Tuesday. As a result, heat index (or feels-like temperatures)
will be fairly close to the actual air temperature through
Monday (upper 80s/lower 90s in the valley areas) which is below
heat advisory criteria. Heat index (feels- like temperatures)
will be closer to 95F in valley areas on Tuesday as humidity
levels begin to increase. No heat advisories are currently
expected through Monday but will be monitored for possible
issuances on Tuesday. With the lower dewpoints, temperatures
will fall to rather comfortable levels at night into the mid-50s
to mid-60s through Monday night. Patchy fog could develop in
the typical locations each night as well.

The ridge begins to break down on Wednesday as an upper level
trough/shortwave and surface cold front approach from the west.
Ahead of this feature, it will remain quite warm with highs in
the 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints look to be the highest on this
day rising into the mid-60s to lower 70s which could lead to
feels like temperatures in the mid to locally upper 90s across
some valley areas. While the best forcing with the trough passes
by to the north, enough forcing with the cold front itself
should be able to support at least isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms across our area. Pending on the timing of the
front, a few stronger storms could occur should enough
instability and shear be present.

Drier weather looks to return for the end of the week and into
the start of next weekend as the front either crosses or nearly
crosses the region on Thursday with high pressure building in
its wake. If the front is slower to push through, some
additional showers and thunderstorms could occur on Thursday,
especially across areas south and east of Albany. Otherwise, it
will be not as hot nor humid as previous days with highs in the
upper 70s to mid to locally upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period for KALB and KPOU.
VFR conditions return for KGFL and KPSF and continues through
11/06z. For KGFL and KPSF, patchy dense fog could develop again
tomorrow morning after 11/06z and fluctuate between
MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions through 11/12z. Calm to light and
variable winds continue today.


Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wasula
SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Wasula
DISCUSSION...Rathbun
AVIATION...Webb