805
FNUS71 KAKQ 171944
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Chubb nap...Vadcr
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
344 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains dominant this afternoon, with light westerly
winds becoming southwesterly later this evening. Minimum RH
values of around 25% are ongoing across the area this afternoon.
High pressure settles off the coast Friday into the weekend,
resulting in warmer and breezier conditions. Wind gusts on Friday
will likely reach 20 to 25 mph by the late afternoon. Meanwhile,
RH values will bottom out at 35-40% Friday afternoon. Rain chances
will be less than 5% through the weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24724 mph-ft).
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................31 to 34.

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0
Temp............66  66
RH..............27  28
20 FT wind dir..W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   2
20 FT wind gust.5   3
Mix hgt (kft)...5.3 5.3
Transp wind dir.W   W
Transp wind spd.6   5
LVORI...........1   1
ADI.............34  31
Vrate mph-ft/1K.27  24
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 3 mph shifting to the east
                    around 2 mph early in the evening, then
                    shifting to the southeast 3 to 6 mph in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13799 mph-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1035 mph-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 to 18.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6   9   11  18  26  27  29  26  24  21  18  15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............65  62  58  55  52  50  49  48  47  46  45  45
RH..............30  35  42  49  56  61  66  71  74  79  82  86
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   3
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 2.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.3   2   2   2   3   5   6   6   6   6   5   5
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   5   5
ADI.............18  1   1   1   2   2   2   3   3   2   2   2
Vrate mph-ft/1K.13  5   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph with
                    gusts to around 21 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 13 mph increasing to south 16 to
                    24 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1954 mph-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (116839 mph-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (130064
                    mph-ft) late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 early in the morning increasing to 104 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12  8   4   8   11  14  15  16  18  15  12  10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............45  48  50  56  61  66  70  73  75  76  78  77
RH..............86  83  80  69  62  52  45  43  40  39  36  37
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   4   5   7   8   9   10  10  11  11
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   6   9   14  15  18  19  19  21  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   5   6   9   13  16  17  18  18  22  24  24
LVORI...........5   4   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............2   4   6   14  32  53  76  96  81  92  102 104
Vrate mph-ft/1K.1   2   2   10  24  42  62  81  102 116 130 133
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  VGD VGD VGD

$$
Forecaster...BARNHARDT
Requested by...Burn boss
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2510919.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dylan.gavagni@dcr.virginia.gov