644
FNUS71 KAKQ 221354
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Shorters Wharf Rx...USFWS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
854 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on January 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Northerly winds will gradually decrease today and skies will
become partly cloudy by noon and mostly sunny during the
afternoon. RH values will drop to between 40 and 45 percent this
afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 23.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 8 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 12 to 21 mph decreasing to 6 to 9 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (39700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................13 to 52.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........75  72  69  55  40  26  21  15  10  14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............16  17  18  20  21  22  22  23  21  20
RH..............61  56  53  49  47  45  45  43  45  49
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   7   7   6   6   5   4
20 FT wind gust.13  14  13  13  13  12  9   8   7   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.0 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.1
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.21  20  17  15  12  9   8   7   6   6
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2
ADI.............39  48  52  47  39  31  25  21  18  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..26  34  40  37  32  27  21  17  15  10
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 10 above.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 1 to 5 mph shifting to the east around 1
                    mph overnight, then shifting to the southeast
                    after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (300 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................0 to 2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........17     22     25     24     21     16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............18     16     14     13     12     11
RH..............53     58     67     70     73     80
20 ft wind......N 3    NE 2   NE 2   E 2    E 2    E 2
20 ft wind gust.5      3      3      3      3      3
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   400    400    300    300    300
Transport wind..N 5    N 3    N 2    E 1    SE 1   S 1
LVORI...........2      3      4      4      4      4
ADI.............2      2      1      1      1      1
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6      1      1      0      0      0
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 33.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    early in the afternoon, then becoming light
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 1 to 2 mph shifting to the southwest
                    5 to 8 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (14700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 to 21.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........21           52           63
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
Temp............11           22           32
RH..............80           57           36
20 FT wind......E 2G3        SW 3G5       SW 5G8
Mix hgt (ft)....300          1400         1900
Transport wind..SE 1         SW 7         SW 8
LVORI...........4            2            2
ADI.............1            13           19
Haines index....4            4            4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0            9            13
Ventrate Cat....POOR         POOR         POOR

$$
Forecaster...IYER
Requested by...Eric Kronner
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2501012.0/AKQ
.DELDT 01/22/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL eric_kronner@fws.gov