875
FXUS61 KAKQ 081735
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1235 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions continue into Friday. Low pressure is
expected to lift northeast from the Gulf coast Friday, tracking
along the Carolina coast Saturday, bringing additional winter
weather to the region. Dry conditions return later this weekend
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1108 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-Cold and dry conditions are expected tonight with a few snow
flurries possible in the counties adjacent to the Bay tonight.

Another day of cold conditions is on tap for the area as strong high
pressure centered over the central/southern Plains  region remains
the dominant synoptic feature. Some snow pack is still visible in
the northern half of the forecast area, which may keep those
counties a degree or two cooler than the counties without any
remaining snow on the ground. The subtle increase in winds during
the day today will keep wind chills generally between 25-30F in most
areas. Wind chills will be a few degrees lower in the MD Eastern
Shore counties where higher winds are expected. A weak disturbance
will slide south, with increasing cloud cover from north to south
forecast for this evening into tonight. A few snow flurries are
possible as this feature pushes through, mainly in the far eastern
counties along the Bay and the Eastern Shore. Negligible
accumulation is expected, so no impacts are expected tonight.

Heading into the overnight hours, the aforementioned high will
slowly slide eastward, which will allow the gradient to tighten
between that feature and a low northeast of Nova Scotia. With higher
winds overnight than last night, the need for Cold Weather
Advisories has decreased slightly due to the potential for more
mixing as the surface leading to higher temperatures. There is a
chance wind in the more inland counties could decouple overnight and
some areas could radiate, but some remaining cloudiness could also
hamper any radiational cooling. Confidence is too low to consider
issuing any advisories at this time, but we will continue to monitor
this through the day and issue an advisory if confidence increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Cold/dry conditions continue Thursday through Friday.

- Increasing chances for winter precipitation and accumulating snow
  Friday night into Saturday.

Another cold/dry day is expected for Thursday with Arctic high
pressure remaining in control of the weather pattern. High
temperatures on Thursday will be similar to slightly colder to what
we see this afternoon, with highs ranging form the lower 30s N to
the upper 30s S. Another cold night Thursday night, though there
will be less wind compared to tonight as the high pushes closer to
the local area. Lows will range from the upper single digits NW to
the upper teens to lower 20s across the SE. With less wind, we
likely stay just above just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria
across our NW counties where wind chills will be hovering between ~5
and 10 F. Dry weather and continued cold conditions continue into
Friday, but clouds will be on the increase as our next system
approaches from the SW.

All attention turns to the potential for a winter weather system as
we head into Friday night and the first half of Saturday. The deep
upper trough that has been over the region will push offshore during
the day Friday, with weak ridging briefly developing over the
Eastern US. At the surface, low pressure develops along the Gulf
coast, quickly moving along the Gulf coast during the day Friday and
eventually moving NE along the Southeast US coast and eventually off
the Mid Atlantic later Friday night into Saturday. The 00z suite of
models are in good agreement regarding the timing, strength, and
general location of the low, but there are still disagreements in
regards to the amount/placement of precipitation. Followed fairly
close to the model consensus, which quickly has precipitation
overspreading the area from the SW Friday evening into Friday night,
with the highest precipitation chances during the second half of the
night into Saturday morning before tapering down from west to east
later Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Given the very cold
airmass ahead of this system and the expected Miller A storm track,
snow is favored as the primary precipitation type for most of the
area with this system. However, do have a wintry mix and eventually
plain rain mixing across our SE counties as a warm nose works
northward ahead of the low. Snow accumulations in the forecast are
fairly preliminary at this time range and based heavily on WPC QPF,
but in general am showing a widespread 2-3" across the area with ~1"
(or less) closer to the Albemarle Sound where more mixing cuts back
on accumulations. It should be noted that the forecast snow
accumulation is only up until 8 AM EST Saturday and does not take
into account the remainder of the precipitation quite yet, thus
final amounts may be slightly higher. There is a medium to high
chance for Warning level snow accumulation, especially across our SE
counties with lower criteria (3+" in 12 hrs).

All of this being said, still need to iron out some details
regarding this event, especially in regards to QPF amounts and
placement, which will have large impacts in regards to total
accumulations. Both the 00z EPS and GEFS did cut back mean QPF and
mean total snowfall a bit from previous runs, while the CMC came in
slightly higher. We will have better details soon as we start to get
into range of some of the higher-res models, but the main takeaway
is that there is a reasonably high chance at this point for a
widespread 1-3" of snow accumulation with the potential for higher
amounts based on how everything evolves going forward.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Precipitation comes to an end from west to east later Saturday
morning into Saturday afternoon.

- Cold and dry conditions return Sunday into next week.

Precipitation tapers down from west to east late Saturday morning
into Saturday afternoon as the low quickly pushes offshore. After
Saturday, dry conditions are anticipated into next week with high
pressure in control of the local weather pattern. A dry cold front
may try to push through the area Sunday night or early Monday. A
slight warming trend is forecast Sunday into Monday, but
temperatures will still remain below average. Another cold shot and
well below average temperatures like to return next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1235 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow afternoon. Mid-level
cloud cover will increase through the evening as a weak disturbance
pushes south through the area. A few flurries are also possible at
mainly the eastern coastal terminals associated with this
disturbance, but confidence in their exact location is too low to
include mention in the TAF. Regardless, no impacts to flight
categories are expected within any of the flurries if they do move
across any of the terminals. Surface winds will start to increase
overnight, with gusts of 15-20 kts possible. By tomorrow morning,
skies will have cleared out and winds are expected to increase
further, with gusts near 25 kts likely throughout most of the day.

Outlook: Dry and cold conditions are expected through the end of the
week. VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through Friday.
Another storm system approaches the area Friday night into Saturday,
bringing our next potential for winter weather and sub-VFR
flight conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds decrease briefly today but restrengthen tonight behind a
  reinforcing cold frontal passage.

- Gale Watches have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and
  Atlantic Coastal waters starting tonight and continuing into
  Thursday evening.

- Light freezing spray is possible tonight into Thursday morning across
  the rivers, Chesapeake Bay, and northern coastal waters.

- Uncertainty surrounding the details of a coastal low this
  weekend remains high, but SCA conditions appear increasing
  likely.

The pressure gradient remains steep across the region with strong
low pressure near Atlantic Canada and strong high pressure centered
over Kansas. NW winds are generally 20-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt in
the Ches Bay and Atlantic coastal waters. Waves in the bay are 3-5
ft with seas 4-6 ft offshore.

Long-duration NW flow event continues today but winds are expected
to diminish somewhat as a weak surface ridge develops across the
Carolinas. SCA headlines for the Rappahannock, York, and James
Rivers as well as the Currituck Sound will come down at 4am. The
lull will be rather brief with SCA conditions returning to the
rivers tonight as renewed cold advection strengthens behind a cold
front. Hi-res guidance shows at least a low chance for some light
flurries to accompany the secondary front but confidence in this
scenario is low given very dry profile aloft. Light freezing spray
will be possible in the rivers, Ches Bay, and northern coastal
waters as winds pick back up behind the front. Made some changes to
headlines with this forecast package...the ongoing Gale Warning for
the northern coastal waters will expire at 4am and will be replaced
with SCA headlines through this evening. 00z guidance as well as
local wind probs show gale conditions returning to the area tonight
behind the front with NW winds increasing to 25-30 kt with gusts 35-
40 kt in the Ches Bay and coastal waters. Therefore, have issued
Gale Watches for these areas starting late this evening (03z/10pm
northern Ches Bay) and tonight (06z/1am remaining Ches Bay and all
coastal waters). Confidence in seeing sustained gales in the rivers
and Currituck Sound are lower so will let the day shift take another
look regarding strong SCAs or gales in these areas. Winds begin to
decrease after sunset Thursday with SCAs likely after gales come
down. Sub-SCA winds move into the region Friday. Consensus of the
00z guidance has come in a bit weaker with coastal low pressure for
this weekend but solid SCAs are likely Saturday afternoon into early
Sunday.

Waves in the bay will decrease to 2-3 ft this afternoon but build
back to 3-5 tonight behind the front and stay in that range into
Friday morning. Seas will decrease as well with 3-6 ft forecast
through much of today before strong NW winds tonight build seas back
to 4-7 ft for Thursday (highest well offshore). Seas are
forecast to fall below 5 ft on Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Prolonged NW winds have allowed tidal anomalies to fall to near zero
or even negative territory across the region. The Low Water Advisory
for the Currituck Sound continues until 10am and may need to be
extended into this afternoon. A more widespread period of Low Water
Advisories is possible Thursday into early Friday after winds ramp
back up behind tonight`s cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Made some corrections to snowfall amounts for the Sun-Mon event
at CLI sites based on obs from nearby co-op sites. This agrees
well with surrounding data and radar:

- RIC: 3.5" storm total (3.0" 1/5 and 0.5" 1/6).
- WAL: 4.5" storm total (all on 1/6).
- SBY: 8.5" storm total (all on 1/6).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630.
     Gale Watch from 10 PM EST this evening through Thursday
     evening for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ631-632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     ANZ631-632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     Low Water Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/NB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/NB
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...