201
FXUS61 KAKQ 241106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
706 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will pass south of the area today,
while a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front
crosses the area Monday, bringing dry and very pleasant
conditions for the rest of next week with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 555 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Best chance of rain today is across NE NC and far SE VA,
  mainly in the morning hours.

- Additional isolated showers/storms are possible late in the
  day in the Piedmont.

- HIGH risk of rip currents continues at all area beaches today.

High pressure is situated well off the New England coast this
morning, though it does ridge southwestward back into the Mid-
Atlantic. Underneath this, weak low pressure is tracking NE
along the Carolina coast. Widespread mid-high clouds are
streaming northward from this feature and the local area is
mostly cloudy this morning. It`s not as cool as last night with
the clouds around and temps are hovering in the low-mid 60s for
most locations and around 70 F at the coast.

That low pressure system lifts NE and parallels the NC OBX coast
later this morning. In response to modest moisture advection, PWATs
will briefly increase to 1.6-1.8" for NE NC and far SE VA after
sunrise. This will likely be enough for some showers in the
aforementioned areas today, with the most likely window for rainfall
in the 7 AM-12 PM time frame. There is some disagreement among the
near-term CAMs regarding precip coverage and intensity with the HRRR
likely a northern outlier (in fact, the 07z and 08z runs have
trended significantly south). Therefore, the highest PoPs
remain confined to NE NC and far SE VA. The chance for thunder
is extremely low due to almost no instability. The low departs
offshore this afternoon and shower chances should then decrease
across the SE.

To our NW, a weak cold front will also inch closer to our western
Piedmont counties. This could spark a isolated showers and storms
across the higher terrain this afternoon and a few of these could
sneak into our far western/northern counties this evening. PoPs are
only ~20% and confined to well W of I-95. Given relatively weak
instability, no severe wx is expected, but brief heavy rain is
possible in any storm. Further E through the I-95 corridor, Northern
Neck, and Eastern Shore, mainly dry wx is expected.

High temps today in the low-mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A few showers and storms remain possible across the eastern
  half of the area Monday. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures
  in the mid- upper 80s are expected.

- Dry, comfortable weather with noticeably lower humidity is
  expected on Tuesday.

The cold front swings through Monday, likely in the late morning or
early afternoon. A few lingering showers or storms could redevelop
across SE VA, the Chesapeake Bay vicinity, and NE NC in the afternoon
where some higher dew points linger. Coverage, however, should be
quite sparse and PoPs are only 20% to locally 30%. Still looking
quite warm (despite the FROPA) with afternoon highs in the mid-upper
80s (warmest SE). Cold advection arrives later Monday evening and
night, allowing for comfortable lows in the upper 50s W to low-mid
60s E.

A deep trough begins to dig over the eastern CONUS on Tuesday as sfc
high pressure builds over the Plains/Midwest. The low-level flow
will be light out of the N-NW behind the front, leading to a
pleasant day with highs only around 80 F and dew points in the 50s.
The current low temp forecast has upper 50s-lower 60s Tuesday night,
but wouldn`t be surprised if reality ends up a few degrees cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Very nice from mid to late next week with lots of sun and
comfortable temperatures and humidity.

Very nice, fall like wx is expected from mid to late next week as
deep troughing remains in place over the area. Meanwhile, the
surface high that will be over the Midwest at the start of the
period builds over the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. Several shortwaves
rotating through should also provide reinforcing shots of cooler and
drier air. Dew points as low as the upper 40s are also expected by
Wednesday. The continental origin of the airmass and strong
subsidence from the high should keep a dry forecast through the end
of the week. Highs through the week are likely to be several degrees
below normal and in the mid 70s to around 80 F. Lows should
generally be in the mid 50s inland and low 60s in the east. The
latest 00z statistical model guidance continues to show some
potential for upper 40s across the Piedmont Wednesday night as the
sfc high settles overhead.

Current indications are similar wx continues into the first part of
the Labor Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 555 AM EDT Sunday...

Predominantly VFR conditions prevail through the 12z/24 TAF
period. Primary cloud base this morning remains the BKN-OVC
cirrus deck, but observations do show some lower- level clouds
(CIGs 3-4k ft) scattered across the area as well. Low pressure
is expected to track NE along the NC coast later this morning,
with some lowering of the CIGs across NE NC and possibly SE VA.
While a period of MVFR CIGs is possible near the Albemarle
Sound, there is not particularly high confidence in this
scenario and the latest guidance actually now keeps this MVFR S
of the local forecast area. Additionally, showers are possible
at ECG this morning, with a lower chance at ORF/PHF. VFR and dry
wx is expected elsewhere today. Light and variable winds this
morning become E-SE at 5-10 kt this afternoon. Mainly clear
tonight with VRB winds 5 kt or less.

Outlook: A low-end chance (20-30%) for shower/storms across SE
VA and NE NC is forecast Monday. Flight restrictions are
generally not expected and prevailing VFR is expected through
the end of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 705 AM EDT Sunday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this afternoon
  and early evening due to hazardous seas.

- Otherwise, S-SE winds of 10-15 kt prevail tonight with high
pressure offshore.

- Cool high pressure builds over the waters late Monday night
through midweek.

Latest analysis shows 1024+mb sfc high pressure offshore of the
Canadian Maritimes and the eastern New England coast. To the south,
a quasi-stationary frontal boundary/coastal trough remains in place
along the SC/GA coast, extending west across the Florida Panhandle.
A weak wave of low pressure has developed along this front early
this morning, and has served to veer light winds around from the E-
SE to the S-SE across the local waters, with winds averaging 8-10
kt. Choppy seas from the lingering long period swells continue to
hold up seas into the 3-5 ft range, closer to 4-6 ft south of Cape
Charles and points offshore early this morning.

The low to the south will lift NE across the offshore waters later
today, bringing with it a chance for showers and perhaps a t-storm
or two south of Chincoteague this afternoon into early evening.
Winds back to the E-SE this afternoon ~10 kt. Seas finally look to
finally drop below 5ft by late this morning into early afternoon
over the northern and central waters. However, SCA will hang
tough over the southern zones, with swells from the remnants of
Erin and the previously referenced weak coastal low teaming up
to produce some 6-8 second wind waves that may hold up seas just
a bit longer into tonight. SCA may need to remain in place for
(ANZ656) waters south of Cape Charles into late this afternoon,
mainly for seas. Better probability of 5 foot seas lingering
into tonight over the southern waters, and have therefore
extended the SCA over the far southern Atlantic coastal zone
south of the VA/NC border into this evening for the same reason.


Looking ahead, more benign marine conditions look to prevail late
tonight into midweek. Winds veer around to the SSW tonight behind
the departing low into Monday morning, with winds then turning NW
and increasing slightly to 10-15kt later Monday into Monday night.
A second, stronger front then crosses the waters Monday night into
Tuesday. Wind probs for gusts ~20 kt remain ~30-50% in the bay, and
thus a brief period of marginal SCA winds remains possible around
and just before sunrise Tuesday morning, as cooler, drier air builds
south across the local waters. Sub-SCA NW winds then persist Wed-
Thu, as cool high pressure builds over the waters from the NW.
Models are depicting weak low pressure developing out in the western
Atlantic along the front late Wed into Thu, which would veer winds
back to the SSE by late week.

Rip Currents: With lingering long-period (10-14sec) swells and
nearshore breaking waves of 4-5 ft, dangerous swimming conditions
and high risk of rip currents is expected through Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

Tidal anomalies continue to gradually lower in the lower bay, but
are still about +1.3 to 1.5 ft above normal, so additional mainly
minor flooding that is ongoing at this time over the tidal Potomac
and the bay side of the Lower Eastern Shore of MD continues into
high tide cycles late tonight/early Monday. This entails allowing
Coastal Flood Warnings to drop off with this morning`s high tide
cycle across the north, to be replaced by Coastal Flood Advisories,
which will also continue over the tidal York and Rappahannock Rivers
into the high tide cycle late this morning into early afternoon.
Farther south, easing anomalies should allow for improving tides
over the next few cycles, and while some nuisance tidal flooding
remains possible, tide levels should ease enough to allow Coastal
Flood Statements to also drop off with this package.

By this evening, lingering minor coastal flooding looks to drop off
after the high tide cycle late tonight/early Monday over the lower
MD Eastern Shore and the upper Bay/tidal Potomac. After that point,
tides look to finally ease a bit into the day Monday and into
midweek as winds switch offshore.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ076-078-084>086-518-520>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...