Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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119 FXUS61 KAKQ 300802 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 402 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances continue today and Tuesday. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is likely before slightly cooler and drier air pushes into the region for the mid to late week period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 340 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Unsettled pattern continues today with scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms, especially across the western half of the area. - Anomalously moist airmass stays in place with locally heavy rainfall resulting in the potential for areas of flooding this afternoon and evening. - A Flood Watch for the Piedmont will be issued later this morning through late this evening. Weak surface low pressure remains stationed west of the local area with an upper trough keeping southwesterly flow aloft over the region. A batch of moderate showers continues to lift northward along the I-64 corridor early this morning. These showers have been efficient rain-producers with PWATs generally 1.8-2" across the area. Expect a lull in the precip coverage and intensity after the current batch of showers lifts away to the N and NW. Clouds will hang on through the day and will tend to limit surface heating this afternoon. Clouds may be a bit thinner across the southern third of the area, resulting in some meager instability and a chance for a few rumbles of thunder. The main story today with be the potential for heavy rainfall across the Piedmont where HREF probs for 3"/3hrs are maximized this afternoon and evening. In coordination with neighboring offices to the west, will be issuing a Flood Watch from late morning through late this evening from Mecklenburg County northward to Louisa County as well as Goochland southward to Nottoway (where 2-3" inches have fallen already this morning). The highest PoPs will mainly be from I-95 and points west with 30-50% PoPs for the eastern zones. Temperatures today will range from the low to mid 70s NW to the upper 70s and low 80s SE. Showers continue into tonight with lows mainly in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Showers and a few storms are possible on Tuesday before deeper moisture moves offshore along with weak low pressure off the Carolina coast. - Drier air arrives behind a cold front late Wednesday. Unsettled pattern persist into Tuesday as the stubborn upper trough finally translates east across the area and another surface low deepens a bit near the coast. Temperatures range from the upper 60s and low 70s N to the mid and upper 70s S Tuesday afternoon. Showers and isolated storms should move offshore by Tuesday evening with overnight lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s. No precip is expected Wednesday but we will remain warm and somewhat muggy until a cold front crosses the area Wednesday night. High temps rise into the mid to upper 70s but lows cool into the mid 50s to low 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Dry with slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity levels for the late week period. Pleasant conditions expected Thursday with more sunshine and comfortable humidity levels. Flow turns onshore briefly once again on Friday which will increase low level moisture across the area. Highs in the upper 70s and low 80s Friday afternoon. Another cold front comes through late Friday with much lower humidity in store for the weekend. Remaining dry with highs in the 70s Saturday and Sunday and low falling back into the 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Monday... Low pressure continues to linger W of the region with high pressure building to the NE, resulting in onshore flow with a NE wind of 5-10kt. Radar shows a broad area of showers moving northward in the Piedmont and I-95 corridor. Will include a TEMPO at RIC to cover brief VSBY reductions with LIFR CIGs with the heavier precip. Otherwise, IFR CIGs prevail at RIC until after sunrise. For the eastern half of the area, there is a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs. Will keep MVFR prevailing at SBY and PHF until 09z/5AM before going IFR. IFR CIGs are likely to move into ORF and ECG a bit sooner and continue into mid morning. After these showers move out we should see a lull in the precip until this afternoon at RIC and into the evening for the remaining terminals. CIGs look to stay MVFR across the region through the day with IFR likely returning tonight. An upper level trough will slowly cross the region through Tuesday bringing unsettled conditions to the region with a chc of showers and few tstms. Conditions are expected to improve mid to late week. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory issued from Fenwick Island DE to Parramore Island VA until 6 am Wednesday, rest of VA coast and lower bay to come later in day. - Low pressure offshore allows increasing N to NE winds and waves through midweek. - Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected from Thursday through Friday before another round of SCAs is possible this weekend. Low pressure over KY/TN and offshore VA is causing a stationary front just south of the local area. Meanwhile, high pressure is situated well NE of the local area. Onshore N to NE flow is to bring possible SCA conditions through midweek. Waves in the northern coastal waters are near 5 ft with winds around 14 kt. As such, SCA has been issued for Fenwick Island DE to Parramore Island VA until 6 am Wednesday. The mouth of the bay, the lower bay, and the southern VA coastal waters will have a SCA starting at 1 pm this afternoon lasting until 6 am Wednesday. The lower James River will have a SCA starting at 1 pm this afternoon to 2 am Tuesday morning. Winds today will increase to 16-18 kt in the ocean and 13-16 kt in the bay as the pressure gradient between the coastal low pressure and high pressure tightens. Winds increase on Tuesday to 17-20 kt in the northern coastal waters, 13-16 kt in the southern coastal waters, and 15-17 kt in the bay. Expect waves from 3-5 ft in the northern coastal waters and 2-4 ft in the southern coastal waters, building to 5-7 ft in the northern coastal waters and 3-6 ft in the southern coastal waters by Wednesday morning. Winds diminish quickly later Wednesday into Wednesday night as high pressure settles over the area. Sub-SCA winds prevail through Friday. Seas will take a bit more time to subside, and 5ft seas could linger through part of Thursday. One more round of SCAs is possible by the weekend as another cold front crosses the waters. Slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity levels for mid to late week behind a midweek cold frontal passage. The upper low continues to weaken on Wednesday, though warm, moist airmass remains in place to begin the forecast period. A cold front should move through the region on Wednesday but model ensembles remain a bit more intent to keep bulk of cool air advection locked up across the Great Lakes and northeast/New England. As such, temperatures look to trend only slightly cooler for the latter half of the week, albeit with slightly drier conditions with onshore flow quickly returning for Thu/Fri. Still expect the extended forecast to be dry with high pressure building into the region late Wednesday through early Friday, before sliding offshore Friday into next weekend. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s, increasing into the upper 70s Thursday into the weekend. Overnight low temps mainly in the 50s to low 60s. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... A river Flood Warning remains in effect for the James River at Richmond-Westham. See water.noaa.gov and FLWAKQ for additional information. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for all areas adjacent to the bay/ocean through Tuesday morning to account for widespread minor tidal flooding. - A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the Rappahannock/tidal Potomac south to Mathews County for Tuesday`s high tide, as confidence in moderate flooding here has increased some. - Locally moderate tidal flooding is possible along the James River on Tuesday/Tuesday night, but confidence is not high enough yet to issue a watch. - Tidal anomalies slowly fall from Wednesday-Thursday, but widespread minor flooding likely continues through at least Wednesday night. Anomalies have begun to rise again and are now 1.4-1.8 ft above normal across much of the Ches Bay as winds have become ENE. will likely start rising later today as winds become ENE. Tidal anomalies will continue to slowly rise on through Tuesday/Tuesday night with the increase in NE winds, and expect widespread minor to locally moderate tidal flooding in the upper bay and on the west side of the bay, with widespread minor tidal flooding in the lower bay and perhaps even the ocean. Have extended/issued Coastal Flood Advisories for all zones adjacent to the bay/ocean/rivers through Tuesday morning (and these will have to be extended further). Anomalies should fall a little bit from Wed-Thu...but widespread minor tidal flooding likely continues through at least Wednesday night. Have to watch areas along the tidal James River from Smithfield to Jamestown for localized moderate flooding during the high tide cycles on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Did not have enough confidence to issue a watch on this shift as the forecast shows water levels barely exceeding moderate flood stage and winds may become more N than NE by Tue night. However, future shifts may need to consider watches for areas along the upper James. Lastly, localized moderate tidal flooding is possible in southern Dorchester County/Bishop`s Head, but not planning on issuing watches/warnings unless it appears that Cambridge/Crisfield will see moderate flooding. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ024-025. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ075>078- 085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ083-084- 089-090-093-095>100-518-520-523>525. Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-065>069-513. Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654-656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RHR NEAR TERM...RHR SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...AJZ/RHR MARINE...KMC HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...