606
FXUS61 KAKQ 211103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
703 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Erin will make its closest approach to the Mid-
Atlantic coast today, before quickly moving farther out to sea
tonight into Friday. Local impacts will include large waves and
coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents, and breezy to windy
conditions along the coast and over the coastal waters. High
pressure builds across the region Friday into Saturday bringing
dry conditions and slightly below average temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Tropical Storm Warnings from Duck, NC to Chincoteague, VA as
  well as the coastal waters, the Chesapeake Bay, and the lower
  James River

- Hurricane Erin stays offshore today as it makes its closest
  approach to the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, impacts will
  happen well outside of the forecast cone, with large waves,
  strong rip currents, coastal flooding, and breezy conditions
  along the coast all expected.

Hurricane Erin was centered about 205 miles ESE of Cape
Hatteras, NC and moving NNE around 17 mph as of the 5 AM
Advisory. Erin is a category 2 storm and is being steered NNE
as it moves around the sub-tropical ridge in advance of a
trough over the Great Lakes. There is still vigorous convection
around the center of Erin. However, GOES water vapor channels
depict dry air entrainment on the western flank of the system.
As expected, the wind field associated with Erin is expanding to
the NW with a NNE wind gusting to 30-35 mph along the immediate
coast from the Currituck Outer Banks and along the VA/MC
coasts. Additionally, there is a lingering front from north
central VA to the central Delmarva. There are stratus clouds
along and N of this boundary. Temperatures early this morning
range through the 70s.

Hurricane Erin is expected to make a quick turn to the NE today
as it makes its closest approach to the Mid-Atlantic coast. The
main threats continue to be coastal flooding, high waves/beach
erosion, and dangerous rip currents in addition to wind along
the coast. The coastal hazards are covered in more detail below.
Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect from Duck, NC to
Chincoteague, VA and are bordered by a Wind Advisory. A N to NNE
wind will continue to increase today and is expected to reach
25-35 mph with gusts to around 45 mph (a few gusts to 50 mph
along the immediate shoreline) along the coast and tapering down
to 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph farther inland. There
will be a period this morning where the RRQ of an upper jet
could produce some bands of showers over most of the area, which
then shift toward the coast by afternoon, but dry air
entrainment should limit coverage and intensity of the showers,
with only a very low probability of thunder. Otherwise, mostly
cloudy to overcast with high temperatures in the mid 70s N to
lower 80s S/SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and pleasant conditions Friday and Saturday as high
  pressure builds into the region.

Drier air builds in from the N tonight into Friday as high
pressure builds into the region. Lows tonight drop into the 60s
with decreasing clouds. Partly to mostly sunny and pleasant
Friday with highs in the lower 80s. A N wind of 10-15 mph with
gusts to 20 mph will persist along the coast Friday. High
pressure is expected to be centered in vicinity of the coast
Friday night and nudge offshore Saturday. Comfortable Friday
night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s followed by highs
Saturday in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front approaches Sunday with scattered showers and a
  few thunderstorms possible.

- Below average temperatures and dry conditions are expected by
  the middle of next week.

High pressure moves farther offshore Saturday night and Sunday,
leading to increasing temperatures and moisture. During the
same timeframe, another cold front will be moving into the Ohio
Valley, eventually crossing the local area later Sunday into
Sunday night. Additionally, weak low pressure may slide up the
coast as well. PoPs are generally 25-50% Sunday
afternoon/evening. The low offshore may actually limit the
return of higher instability, so thunder chances are rather low
for a late-August frontal passage. Seasonally hot Monday ahead
of a secondary cold front. Confidence continues to increase in a
more substantial trough digging in from the NW early next week
with below average temperatures and dry weather expected by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...

Hurricane Erin is tracking N off the NC coast as of 11z.
Meanwhile, a stationary front lingers from north-central VA to
the Delmarva. IFR/MVFR cigs are occurring along and N of this
boundary, with patchy MVFR cigs near the coast farther S. SBY is
currently IFR, with IFR cigs observed around RIC. Brief IFR cigs
are possible at RIC through 14z, with IFR cigs persisting at
SBY and continuing to 14-16z. Additionally, PHF could have some
brief IFR cigs through 16z. MVFR cigs are expected prevail much
of the day. Isolated to scattered showers are possible but
should have very minimal impact on vsby. Conditions improve
tonight with VFR conditions developing as drier air arrives from
the N as Hurricane Erin lifts NE farther out to sea. A N wind
is expected to range from 10-15kt inland initially and 15-20kt
with gusts to 25kt toward the coast. The wind will steadily
increase this morning as Erin tracks NE off the coast. Expect a
N wind of 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt inland, and 20-25kt with
gusts to 30-35kt closer to the coast. A few gusts to 40kt are
possible at ORF and ECG.

Dry and VFR conditions prevail Friday and Saturday. A chc of
showers/tstms returns Sunday and Monday ahead of and along a
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...

- Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters,
  Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and lower James River. The
  most hazardous conditions are expected later this morning and
  afternoon.

- Dangerous seas of 10-20 ft and shoreline/dune erosion are
  likely on Thursday.

- Slowly improving conditions expected by Friday and especially
  this weekend, though elevated seas and rip current hazards
  linger.

Category 2 Hurricane Erin, with maximum sustained winds of 90
kt/105 mph, is located about 200 miles SE of Cape Hatteras this
morning. Winds have been steadily increasing as Erin gets closer
and observations currently depict NE winds 20-25 kt with gusts
approaching 30 kt. Winds are lower in the upper rivers but
should steadily increase over the next few hours. Currently,
buoys are reporting 6-9 ft seas, which is below what wave
guidance suggests. Therefore, the near-term seas forecast is a
bit uncertain.

The strongest winds are expected later this morning through the
rest of today. The large wind field (and dangerous seas) will
pose a significant marine threat and dangerous conditions are
expected on the waters and particularly over our ocean zones.
NNE-NE winds increase further this morning and peak at 25-35 kt
later today. Wind gusts to 40-45 kt are expected in the coastal
waters, Currituck Sound, and lower Chesapeake Bay. Wind gusts to
around 35 kt are expected in the upper bay and lower James
River. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for all offshore
zones as well as the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and
Currituck Sound. Sub-34 kt wind gusts are expected in the upper
rivers so SCA headlines are in effect through 11z/7 AM Fri.
Slowly subsiding winds are expected late tonight with a 20-25 kt
N wind. By Friday, wind speeds drop off to 15-20 kt, with 10-15
kt by the afternoon in the Chesapeake Bay and rivers. Much
calmer winds prevail for the weekend, though elevated seas
likely will pose continued threats to small craft.

The other aspect will be the dangerous seas which will continue
to build today, peaking at 13-18 ft this afternoon. There is
also some potential for 20 ft seas out 20 nm. Waves/seas in the
lower bay and mouth of the bay should peak at 6-8 ft Thursday,
with 4-6 ft elsewhere in the bay and lower James (2-3 ft
Currituck Sound). Slowly improving conditions are expected by
the weekend as Erin departs well offshore and transitions into
an extratropical cyclone, but long-period swell and 4-6 ft seas
are expected through Sunday. Thus, an extended period of Small
Craft Advisories are likely on the coastal waters once the wind
hazards end and tropical storm headlines are dropped.

Rip Currents: With long-period (12-17s) swell and nearshore
breaking waves of 8+ feet, dangerous swimming conditions and
high risk of rip currents is expected through this week and
likely the weekend. Swimmers should remain out of the water.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...

Tidal anomalies are building this morning as NE winds increase
from Erin. Widespread minor to locally moderate flooding is
expected with the upcoming morning high tide, with the highest
levels along the Atlantic coast and in the lower bay. Coastal
Flood Warnings and advisories are in effect. Note that most
areas in the warning will not hit moderate flood with this lower
morning high tide, but instead with the cycle later today (see
below).

For all areas minus the upper Bay, the highest water levels are
expected to occur with the upcoming evening/overnight high tide
cycle. Widespread moderate flooding is anticipated at most
gauges, with major flooding forecast for some gauges along the
Atlantic coast/mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and in the Lynnhaven
vicinity of VA Beach. Upgraded to Coastal Flood Watch north of
the York River to a warning (except along the tidal Potomac and
for Lewisetta where moderate flooding isn`t expected until
Friday afternoon). Beyond this, there could be a few high tide
cycles that experience minor or moderate flooding, as the high
anomalies from Erin`s swell lingers. Coastal Flood Watches
continue for the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore late Friday
into Saturday. There is the potential that the upper Bay could
see additional flooding lasting into Sunday.

Additionally, significant beach erosion is likely due to the
extended duration of the large, breaking waves. A High Surf
Advisory is in effect for nearshore breaking waves of 8-14 ft
through Friday morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ024-
     025.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Friday for MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for MDZ025.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight
     for MDZ025.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ017-102.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for NCZ102.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015-016.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Friday for NCZ102.
VA...Tropical Storm Warning for VAZ098>100.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Friday for VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for VAZ098>100.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-525.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Friday for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ076-
     078-083>086-518-520>522.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for VAZ076-078-083>086-518-520>522.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Friday for VAZ082-089-090-
     093-095>097-523>525.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...AJZ/AC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/AC
LONG TERM...AJZ/AC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...RHR/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SW