211
FXUS61 KAKQ 061356
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
956 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures are expected today. A high chance for
showers and isolated thunderstorms arrives late this afternoon
into Monday as a cold front slowly crosses the area. Much cooler
temperatures are expected early next week with the potential
for below freezing temperatures Tuesday night. Near normal
temperatures will prevail from mid-late week, with another
chance for showers on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 955 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures expected again today.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible
  this afternoon through Monday night along a cold front.

- Isolated severe threat in the western counties early, followed
  by a hydro threat tonight through Monday.

A cold front is gradually approaching the area today from the
NW. Skies over much of the area have cleared out per latest
satellite, but have built back in over the NW just ahead of the
front. Also have observed some light showers in Louisa/Fluvanna,
but otherwise dry. The gradient between the front and the high
in the North Atlantic off the SE coast will tighten today.
Southwesterly winds will pick up in earnest, with gusts of 20-30
mph expected and gusts as high as 35 mph mainly in SE VA and NE
NC. Well above average temps continue today. Highs in the mid-
upper 80s S/SE of Richmond. Northern counties reach the upper
70s.

The front is progged to move through the area this afternoon through
Monday evening. Atmospheric moisture content will surge this
afternoon, with PW values reaching 1.3-1.7". This abundant moisture
and some instability will allow for increased rain rates.
Additionally, a strong low level jet will be moving across the
region, which could enhance storm intensity as well as rain rates.
The best chance for storms to become severe will be in the western
part of the forecast area where the best environment will be
located. While the brief severe risk dwindles quickly as the line
moves eastward overnight and into tomorrow morning, the threat
shifts to hydro. The front will be moving slowly, which will help
with bands of rain train across the area, allowing rainfall
accumulations to quickly reach 1.5-2.5" for a good portion of our
area, with locally higher amounts. WPC has placed a majority of the
forecast area in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall today, with
SE VA and NE NC included in a Marginal Risk tomorrow. In terms of
temperatures for Monday, there is a spread due to the speed of the
front. Regardless, many places will likely see temperatures forgo
the regular diurnal temperature curve and start to decrease in the
afternoon as the front moves through. The front will inch
southeastward during the day on Monday, finally pushing offshore
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 412 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry conditions prevail Tuesday through Wednesday

- Tuesday night will bring below freezing temperatures to
  portions of the forecast area.

A secondary cold front will push through the area on Tuesday
morning. High pressure will start to build in behind the front,
and a drier, much cooler airmass will begin to filter in. Winds
will pick up behind the front as a decently mixed environment
develops due to northwesterly winds and a drier airmass.
Temperatures will only reach the 50s across the forecast area
Tuesday, which is a few degrees below normal for early April.
Mostly clear skies and dry conditions will prevail Tuesday
through the first part of Wednesday night. With lighter winds
and clear skies expected on Tuesday night, environmental
conditions will be ideal for radiational cooling. Have dropped
temperatures a degree or two below guidance to account for this.
Most of the forecast area aside from NE NC and communities
right along the coast and VA Eastern Shore may see temperatures
drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s. This will result in the
possible issuance of Frost/Freeze products Tuesday night.

Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal again on
Wednesday, with highs still generally in the 50s. Flow will become
onshore, so high temperatures immediately along the coast may be a
few degrees cooler than inland. Wednesday night there is good
agreement that a shortwave will start to approach the forecast area,
so we will see increasing cloudiness overnight. There is a chance
for some radiational cooling again Wednesday night, but the window
will be confined to the first few hours of the night ahead of these
clouds. Temperatures will drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 412 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler, seasonable temperatures return by mid-late week.

- Another chance for rain comes on Friday as another front moves
  through the forecast area.

Near normal high temperatures will prevail Thursday through at least
Saturday, with high in the 60s and lows generally in the mid to
upper 40s. Heading into the latter part of this week, global models
are starting to come into a little better agreement on the evolution
of the aforementioned shortwave. There is a good chance we will see
some rainfall and potentially gusty winds Friday into Saturday as a
cold front crosses into the area and low pressure develops along the
front. With this being said, there are still timing and placement of
the surface and mid-level lows so uncertainty in exact impacts
remains. Details of the forecast will continue to become more
refined over the next few forecast cycles, but we could see a wetter
start to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail through a majority of the TAF period at
all terminals. Conditions will start to deteriorate in the evening
at SBY and RIC as a front and associated rainfall approaches from
the west. The front will be moving at a relatively slow pace, so
none of the other terminals are forecast to see the start of
precipitation prior 07/00z. There is enough confidence that some
shower activity will move near PHF and ORF later tonight ahead of
the main band of rain, so have include PROB30 for SHRA and low
CIGS for both sites, but the timing may need to be adjusted
depending on the speed of the front. The leading edge of storms
has the best chance at thunder, so have maintained TSRA for RIC
at this time. As rainfall overspreads the terminals, MVFR/IFR
conditions are likely. This will be a longer duration rain
event, so impacts to flight conditions will be prolonged. Winds
will start to increase from the southwest ahead of the front,
with terminals seeing frequent gusts of 20-30 kts through the
afternoon.

Outlook: Showers continue through much of Monday ahead of a cold
frontal passage. Conditions will finally start to clear at all sites
by Tuesday morning, and VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday
ahead of another approaching front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect for most areas for elevated SSW winds today
  ahead of an approaching cold front. Another period with Small
  Craft conditions, likely stronger, is expected late Tuesday
  through Wednesday with NNW winds in association with much
  cooler air in the wake of the cold front.

Latest analysis reveals a warm front now well NNE of the local
waters. To the west, the trailing sfc cold front has become hung
up across the Appalachians, and extends SSW to the western gulf
coast. Latest obs reflect S-SW winds 10-20 kt, highest in the
lower James, the Ches Bay and the near shore coastal waters.
Waves are 1-2 ft, and seas are 3-5 ft (highest N waters).

No major changes to forecast thinking this morning. Bermuda
high pressure will remain anchored offshore today, as the sfc
pressure gradient compresses between the sfc ridge offshore and
the previously referenced cold front that will get nudged toward
the region late today and tonight. SCAs are now in effect for
all but the Rappahannock River, which will still see gusts to
~20 kt, but remain predominately below SCA thresholds.
Otherwise, SSW winds increase to ~20 kt later this morning and
this afternoon, with gusts as high as 25-30 kt expected, highest
on the lower James/nearshore due to better mixing over land,
with winds to then slowly diminish late this afternoon and this
evening, with SCA slowly lowering from N to S this evening.
Meanwhile, seas are expected to build to 4-6 ft across the
coastal waters north of Cape Charles, which will begin to
experience some stronger E-SE swell (4-5 ft at 6-7 seconds). SE
swell bump seas to ~5-6ft northern waters and 4-5ft farther
south (mainly out near 20NM offshore), with waves 2-4 ft,
highest at the mouth of the Bay. SCA has been extended over the
coastal waters through Monday night.

Still expect a few showers and storms after 5-6pm today into
this evening which may bring heavy rain and strong wind gusts
in stronger storms that could well require Marine Statements or
SMWs.

Rain continues into Monday morning, with the front dropping
through the area Monday morning into the afternoon. A secondary
front then drops across the region Monday night into early
Tuesday. Solid surge of CAA with this secondary front should
bring another round of solid/high-end SCA later Mon night/Tuesday
morning into the afternoon north and Tuesday morning into at
least early Wed morning across southern waters. In-house wind
probs for 35 kt+ gusts did increase slightly, but given the
warming waters and the expected strong mixing of post-frontal
CAA, would not be surprised to see a narrow window of 35-40 kt
gusts Tuesday morning that will need to be monitored. Thereafter,
high pressure briefly builds back across the region Wednesday,
resulting in diminishing winds by Wednesday afternoon through
Thu. Seas and waves remain elevated through early next week,
slowly subsiding below SCA thresholds by midweek.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Yesterday, April 5th, a record high temperature of 89 degrees
was set at Norfolk, VA. This breaks the previous record of 88
degrees, set in 1942.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ636>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NB
NEAR TERM...AC/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...LKB/MAM
CLIMATE...