171
FXUS61 KAKQ 140759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
359 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger off the DelMarVa coast through
tonight, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. Dry and seasonable weather prevails into
Wednesday, with cooler temperatures to end the work week. A
warming trend is expected by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Low pressure gradually moves farther offshore later today.
  Chances for drizzle and light rain continue this morning,
  mainly along/E of I-95.

Latest WX analysis shows an upper level low now centered just
offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast, with what has been double
barreled sfc low pressure now consolidating into a single low
off the coast. The low level winds are from the NW, with
widespread low clouds and some very light rain and drizzle,
mainly along and E of I-95 and over MD-VA. Temperatures are in
the mid to upper 50s for most.

For today, shortwave energy dives south on the back side of the
upper low this morning, with the system gradually moving farther
offshore of the VA-NC coast this aftn. Sfc high pressure remains
far removed the region today (across western Ontario and the
upper midwest, so despite dry air aloft, low level moisture
looks to linger through most of the day as the sfc wind filed
becomes more due northerly or even NNE this aftn. The best
chance for any sunshine later today will be W of I-95, though
how far east the clearing will get is uncertain. Will continue
with a forecast for overcast conditions this morning, with chc
PoPs for light rain along and E of I-95, shifting SE by later
morning into the aftn. Will have partly cloudy skies later in
the aftn over the piedmont, but will keep it mainly cloudy
closer to the coast. Temperatures will struggle to rise much
above the mid 60s in the east, with lower 70s forecast in the
far western sections of the CWA. Winds remain elevated today,
especially near the coast with gusts to ~30 mph expected. Any
lingering light rain or drizzle should shift off the coast by
later aftn.

Partly cloudy/variably cloudy tonight, except mostly cloudy
closer to the coast. There should be enough mixing to preclude
any fog development. Lows tonight range from 50-55 inland to the
lower 60s with continued N winds off the water in coastal SE VA
and NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming mostly sunny Wednesday with seasonable temperatures.

- Dry, but turning cooler Thursday with at least patchy frost
  possible by Thursday night/Fri AM over inland zones.

Northwest flow aloft will remain across the area Wednesday and
Thursday helping to usher in drier air. For Wednesday, enough
dry air and mixing should be able to scour out any remaining low
level morning clouds. Highs will be close to normal, in the
low-mid 70s area-wide. The next shortwave aloft drops SE
through the region late Wednesday, pushing a dry cold front
through the CWA Wed night, as sfc high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes. Lows Wed night/Thu AM will be cooler, but
seasonable as decoupling will not occur due to continued mixing
of the N winds. Thursday looks much cooler, but dry and mainly
sunny with highs in the 60s. The GFS/NAM/ECMWF and the ensembles
are in good agreement with the center of the sfc high drifting
SE Thursday night, becoming centered along the Appalachians
Friday morning. This should allow winds to calm and skies to
remain clear, though closer to the coast, there will likely be
some continued mixing. The sfc high is progged to be ~1025 mb at
most, so not a real strong system. Nevertheless, undercut NBM
low temperatures by a few degrees except closer to the coast-
with lows in the mid- upper 30s likely for rural interior
locations. At the coast, lows will range from the mid 40s to
lower 50s. Did not mention any frost in the grid yet, but expect
this will be necessary on later shifts, at least for areas
along and W of the I-95 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures are possible by the end of the week and
  into the weekend.

- Chances of rain increase by the end of the weekend.

By Friday, model consensus places an upper level ridge from the
Gulf coast region northward to the Great Lakes, with sfc high
pressure over the local area underneath the confluent NW flow
aloft. Dry and cool weather will prevail with full sun and less
wind with highs in the low-mid 60s. The high lingers across
the SE VA and NC coastal plain Fri night, with another cool
night expected (though not as cool as Thu night), with lows in
the 40s. moves off the coast Fri night through Friday and
temperatures will remain cool with highs in the low to middle
60s. Saturday will remain dry but the high will be offshore
allowing SW flow to overtake the area, bringing warmer temperatures
with highs reaching back into the 70s. Then by Sunday, the
ridge moves off to the east, allowing a large upper trough to
move in from the W. At the surface, a cold front will advance
across the area later Sun/Sun night. Ahead of the frontal
passage temperatures could potentially reach into the middle to
upper 70s (warmest SE). Will note there is still a bit of
uncertainty as to how much moisture makes it E of the
Appalachians with the core of the upper low across the Great
Lakes. Will have chc PoPs, in the 30 to 50% late Sunday/Sun
night. Drying out and cooler Monday with highs in the 60s to
around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

MVFR to IFR CIGs prevail, with some -RADZ continuing, closer to
the coast. The general trend early this morning will be for a
lowering of CIGs to mainly IFR or even LIFR through ~12Z, with a
slow improvement later this morning. Northerly winds will avg
10-15 kt with gusts to ~20kt, increasing to ~25 kt during the
day. RIC should see the least time with IFR conditions, while
SBy/ORF/PHF/ECG could see IFR flight restrictions linger
through early aftn. Mainly VFR by this evening, though some MVFR
conditions could linger along the coast (or redevelop overnight
into early Wed). Winds this evening will diminish to 5-10 kt
inland, and 10-15 kt at the coast.

Outlook: VFR/dry, though with N winds remaining elevated Wed,
(lingering into Thu along the coast). Dry with lighter winds
Fri-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings have been issued for all Atlantic coastal waters as
secondary low pressure makes its closest approach this morning into
the afternoon.

- Strong Small Craft conditions are likely in the Chesapeake Bay and
Currituck Sound with Special Marine Warnings likely to cover shorter
duration strong winds this morning.

Early morning analysis shows broad low pressure off the coast with a
secondary low developing off the Delmarva. Winds are from the NE 20-
25 kt off the MD coast, transitioning to N 25 kt in the northern bay
and NW 20-25 kt for the southern bay. Waves in the bay are generally
2-4 ft with the highest waves likely along the Eastern Shore and
near the mouth with the more prevalent westerly component to the
wind. Seas are 5-7 ft but are expected to build back into the 6-9 ft
range today with occasional seas 10-12 ft.

Complex forecast for this morning and today as low pressure off the
Delaware coast pivots southward offshore within the broader cyclonic
envelope. Latest guidance and local wind probs have inched upward
this morning and after collaboration with neighboring offices, have
decided to issue Gale Warnings for all Atlantic coastal waters from
this morning into the late afternoon for the waters N of Cape
Charles and into early evening for the southern coastal waters.
Winds offshore increase to ~25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt quickly
from N to S after sunrise, potentially lingering into this evening
for the southern zones. Gale headlines will need to be replaced with
SCAs as winds decrease this evening. Latest hi-res guidance shows a
rather brief (~3 hour) period where gusts approach or exceed 35 kt
in the Ches Bay this morning, so will handle the surge with shorter
duration SMWs. Also extended the SCA headlines for the upper rivers
into the early evening. The gradient will remain compressed with SCA
conditions likely to persist in the Ches Bay, Currituck Sound, and
coastal waters through Wednesday. Thereafter, high pressure builds
in from the northwest with a surge of colder and drier air likely to
move across the waters Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold/dry
surge has the potential to over perform vs guidance given relatively
warm waters and another period of Gales is possible over most of the
local waters Wednesday night/early Thursday. High pressure finally
moves over the region late Thursday into Friday with much improved
marine conditions expected. Waves in the Ches Bay maintain 4-5 ft
today with 6 ft near the mouth, decreasing to 3-4 ft Wednesday
before increasing again with the surge early Thursday. Seas will
peak in the 6-9 ft range (locally 10 ft near and south of the VA/NC
border late afternoon and evening before slowly falling off. The NW
surge expected Wed night/Thurs should keep seas from rising as much
as the wind speeds would suggest, generally 5-8 ft before slowly
falling off by late week into the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Another strong ebb tide overnight has allowed anomalies to continue
to diminish across the Chesapeake Bay. While this morning`s high
tide may only reach Action/low-end minor stages, the subsequent high
tide this afternoon is progged to reach minor flood stage, so have
maintained Coastal Flood Advisories in the lower Bay and portions of
the James River as well as the along the Eastern Shore. Have issued
a Coastal Flood Advisory for Currituck OBX as this afternoon`s high
tide will rise well into minor flood and will approach moderate
flood stage as winds increase. Guidance for currents at Cape Henry
shows the potential for a more substantial flood tide this afternoon
but the forecast NW wind direction lends some uncertainty to how
much and how fast anomalies will be able to rise. A Coastal Flood
Statement or Advisory may be necessary for this afternoon`s high
tide from Yorktown and north but the ETSS/P-ETSS guidance is doing a
poor job at handling the currents at the mouth of the Bay (and is
over-forecasting water levels farther up the Bay and tidal
rivers).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ024-
     025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT
     this afternoon for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-
     097>100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ082-
     089-090-093-096-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon
     for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ656-
     658.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...HET/LKB
LONG TERM...HET/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...