339
FXUS61 KAKQ 301636
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1236 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity persist today, with strong to severe storms
and locally heavy rain possible this afternoon into tonight.
The front pushes south of the area Monday morning, bringing
cooler temperatures and lower humidity Monday and Tuesday. Heat
and humidity return later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of the area
  this aftn for widespread heat indices 105-109F.

- The potential is there for strong to severe storms this
  aftn/early evening, likely transitioning more to a heavy rain
  threat tonight.

The latest WX analysis indicates a broad positively tilted mid/upper
level trough extending from northern Quebec SW to the upper
Great Lakes region. At the sfc, low pressure is moving through
Quebec, with a trailing cold front extending SW to the west
slope of the Appalachians. As expected, hot and very humid
conditions prevail as of midday with heat indices at or above
105F across most of central/southern VA and NE NC (temperatures
mainly in low-mid 70s with dew pts in the mid to upper 70s).
While some places may briefly reach into 110+ heat indices, the
expected fairly widespread convection over the next 1-3 hrs
should then lower the heat impacts considerably going into the
late aftn and we may be able to cancel the Heat Advisory early
in some areas.

SPC nudged the Slight Risk slightly south to now cover the
entire CWA. Lapse rates aloft (700-500mb) are rather weak, in
the 5 to 5.5C/KM range so the hail threat this aftn will be
minimal (mainly confined to MD where the lapse rates are
slightly better). Overall, the severe threat this aftn/early
evening will be from damaging wind gusts, primarily in the form
of wet microbursts given the high humidity and PWATs analyzed at
2"+ over the entire CWA (highest in a SW to NE corridor through
the heart of the CWA at ~2.20". Sfc-based CAPE is analyzed at
~4500 J/Kg with ML CAPE ~3000 J/Kg across interior eastern NC up
into SE VA. With heights aloft not particularly high, the CAP
will be weak and we should start to see showers and storms that
have developed over central NC spread NE through 2pm/18Z. The
latest 12Z runs from the HREF suggest the greatest threat for
heavy rain to be over east and SE VA, peaking between 21-00Z.
Given antecedent drought conditions, no Flood Watches will be
issued, but any storms that become widespread and train through
urban areas will need to be monitored for FFW issuances. Precip
will taper off from NW to SE from late tonight through Mon
morning. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s/around
60 over the far NW, to the lower 70s far SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Pcpn will push SE of NE NC by Mon aftn, with N winds ushering
much drier and cooler air into the region during the day. The
sky will become mostly sunny (with lingering clouds over the SE)
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Clear or mostly clear
and comfortable Mon night, as sfc high pressure builds in from
the N. Lows will be mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The
center of the sfc high will move to the srn New England coast
during Tue. Generally mostly sunny and still rather comfortable
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast, and in
the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. The sfc high will sit just off the
New England coast for Tue night. Clear to partly cloudy and
still rather comfortable with lows in the upper 50s to upper
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 405 AM EDT Sunday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity returns later in the week.

The models show good consensus for the return of the upper
ridge over the southeast CONUS by mid to late next week. With
sfc high pressure still centered just off the coast Wed,
conditions will be seasonable for early July, with highs in the
mid 80s to around 90, with moderate humidity levels and little
to no chance for rain. Thu-Sat looks to turn hot with fairly
high humidity. Highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 90s
(lower 90s over the Lower MD and VA ern shore). With dewpoints
climbing back into the lower to mid 70s, heat indices will
likely be 100-105F. There also will be a chance for mainly
aftn/evening tstms Thu-Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions were prevailing at the TAF sites as of midday
with SSW winds 5-10 kt. Sctd to numerous showers/tstms are
likely this aftn through late this evening, with showers and a
few tstms likely tonight into early Mon morning. Some of the
storms could be strong to severe (esply during this
aftn/evening), with brief wind gusts of 30-50 kt possible. Any
tstm will be capable of producing brief IFR- LIFR flight
restrictions in heavy rain. Winds shift to the NNE Mon morning
and will be gusty, esply at the coast. High pressure and drier
conditions return for later Mon morning/early Mon aftn through
Tue, and mainly dry Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk for all area beaches through
  Monday.

- A period of SCA conditions is expected for the bay, lower
  James and Currituck sound late tonight into Monday with
  northerly winds behind a cold front.

- High pressure builds from the northwest for the midweek period,
  with more benign marine conditions Tuesday through midweek.

Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb surface high pressure centered east
of Atlantic Canada early this morning, extending SW well off
the New England and northeast coastline. ~1004mb sfc low
pressure continues to cross central Quebec, with the associated
surface cold front pushing east of the eastern Great Lakes into
the northeast. Locally, winds are SSW ~10-15 kt. Southerly
channeling which resulted in a surge of low-end SCA winds have
gradually diminished as expected this morning, and expect any
gusts to ~20 kt over the bay and lower James to diminish over
the next couple of hours. Will therefore allow SCA to expire on
time at 08z. Seas should remain 3- 4ft this morning, with waves
2-3ft on the bay. Sub-SCA winds through this afternoon, with
winds backing to the SSE once again ~10-15 kt.

The previously referenced cold front, a strong cold front relative
to late June/July, approaches from the NW today. Still expecting
some strong to severe tstms ahead of the frontal passage late
this afternoon and this evening. These storms could bring some
locally stronger convective wind gusts, best handled with marine
statements and Warnings as needed. The front crosses into the
area after midnight late tonight/early Monday, with a decent
CAA surge post-frontal. NNW winds of 15-25kt expected. Seas
build to 3-5ft, with 2-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. SCAs have
been hoisted for the Ches. Bay, lower James, and Currituck
Sound. Have held off for the coastal waters for now, but a brief
window of NNW winds ~25 kt are possible early Monday, with the
best chances south of Cape Charles. Winds remain N ~15-20 kt
into Monday aftn, before diminishing to NE 10-15kt Monday night
into Tuesday as high pressure builds SE toward the New England
coast. Some gusts to ~20 kt will be possible in the lower bay
and lower James Monday night before gradually diminishing. Seas
slowly subside to ~3ft by late Monday night, as high pressure
builds into the region. The high eventually settles S off the
coastal Carolinas by midweek with the wind becoming southerly.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is forecast for all
beaches Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065>069-
     079>090-092-093-095>098-512>520-522>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ632>634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...LKB/TMG
MARINE...AJZ/MAM