581
FXUS61 KAKQ 170129
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
929 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The initial round of storms has pushed off the coast, but
another, less intense batch of storms is possible overnight
through early Saturday morning. Warm temperatures are again
expected on Saturday with low- end chances for storms near the
coast. High pressure briefly returns for Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures cool down and conditions become unsettled into the
middle of next week as an upper level low pressure system
develops west of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 915 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A second round of storms is possible after 2-3 AM tonight,
  which could pose a low-end threat for damaging wind gusts,
  mainly W of I-95.


Storms have now moved offshore, and the remaining portions of
the SVR Tstms Watch have been cancelled. Much cooler and more
stable conditions are in place as temperatures have fallen into
the upper 60s to lower 70s for most areas. Generally dry
conditions prevail under a partly to mostly cloudy sky for the
next several hrs.

However, active convection remains strong across the OH/TN
Valley, and will progress eastward to the Appalachians after
midnight. While low level instability will be minimal, further
stabilized by CIN, mid level (700-500 mb) lapse rates remain
steep (~7C/Km), along with high values of bulk shear. This
should allow at least a broken line/cluster of storms to hold
together E of the mountains after ~06Z/2 AM, though the severe
potential will be much lower than what occurred with the
evening storms. Nevertheless, the Storm Prediction Center has a
Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for the far western counties,
with a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) to approximately the
I-95 corridor. The main threat will be strong wind gusts, with a
minimal hail threat across the far west. Lows overnight will be
close to current readings, averaging in the mid 60s to around
70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm Saturday with a slight chance of thunderstorms across SE
  VA and NE NC.

- Drying out later Saturday into Sunday behind a cold front.

Another hot day is ahead for Saturday ahead of a cold front as
morning convection should dissipate by 6-9 AM. High temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with the warmest temps
across the SE. The main change in the forecast for Saturday is the
waning confidence in severe wx (and also convective initiation
during the aftn) as winds become west and dew pts fall during the
aftn (especially inland). Will keep 20% PoPs across SE VA/NE NC to
account for additional tstm development between 2-8 PM. There will
still likely be a highly conditional severe threat across the SE
given strong sfc heating and still decent shear in place. Of course,
confidence is low regarding any sort of convective initiation. Given
this, SPC has maintained a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal) severe
weather risk near the coast. The main threat would again be damaging
winds, with large hail also possible. With drier air filtering in
behind the front Saturday night, expect cooler low temps in the
lower to mid 60s.

Still quite warm for Sunday/Monday as only modest cold advection
occurs behind the front. Highs in the lower to mid 80s both days,
warmest across the S and SE and coolest on the Eastern Shore.
Overnight lows Sun night drop into the 50s inland and lower 60s
closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather returns later Tuesday through Thursday.

- Below average temperatures return by late next week and likely
  last into next weekend.

Unsettled wx returns for the mid to late week period as an upper
level low is progged to track from the Midwest to the east coast
from Tuesday through Thursday, before slowly exiting to the NE
by Friday/Friday night. While the specifics remain unclear with
differences among the deterministic guidance, Tuesday night-
Wednesday looks like the wettest period, with a drying trend
expected by Thu as cooler air filters in from the NW. With the
increased precipitation chances, temperatures trend cooler...and
likely below seasonal norms...by Wednesday and Thursday. Below
normal temperatures remain favored through the end of the week
and looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Friday...

Strong thunderstorms have pushed east of RIC/SBY/PHF this
evening. May continue to see a period of gusty winds behind the
convection during the next hour or so at SBY and PHF, then
returning to a lighter SW flow. Weakening showers and storms
impact ORF and ECG early in the period, which may bring a period
of reduced vsbys and gusty winds. A complex of storms to our
west and weaken as it approaches late tonight into early
Saturday morning. This second round of convection may impact
the area (especially RIC/SBY) between 07-12z. Will have VCSH for
now given low confidence. Additional showers/storms will remain
possible into early Saturday morning. Breezy on Sat with W-WSW
winds of 10-15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. Isolated showers and
storms are possible near the coast Saturday afternoon, but PoPs
are only ~20%.

Outlook...Prevailing VFR conditions are expected over the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages...

- SW winds gusting to 20 to 25 kt in the lower Chesapeake Bay/
York/James Rivers and Currituck Sound on Saturday. A small craft
advisory is in effect.

- More tranquil marine weather expected Sunday into early next week.

SW winds mostly 10 kt or less across the waters this afternoon with
a weak trough across the waters. The main concern through this
evening will be the chances for severe thunderstorms and the
potential for severe wind gusts. Currently one storm just north of
Ocean City that will likely impact the far northern Coastal Waters
near the MD/DE waters for the next few hours. However, latest high
resolution forecast guidance suggests that strong to severe storms
will impact the waters perhaps as early as 5 to 7 pm over the
central Chesapeake Bay and 6 to 9 pm over the remainder of the
waters. These storms have the potential for wind gusts in excess of
50 kt and large hail as they move through. Any storm threat should
exit by 9 to 10 pm.

The pressure gradient picks up over the waters somewhat on Saturday
ahead of the cold front. These southwest winds will become rather
gusty over land, however some of these 20kt gusts will likely impact
the southern Chesapeake Bay, James/York Rivers and Currituck Sound.
As such, have issued a small craft advisory for these areas on
Saturday into Saturday evening. SW winds decrease early Saturday
evening as the front pushes through. Behind the front, winds
gradually turn west then northwest on Sunday. Low pressure then
deepens over the Canadian Maritimes Sun night into Monday which
should allow for NW winds to increase to around 15 kt across the
waters. May need small craft advisories with this northerly surge
but there is still some uncertainty. Winds gradually turn to the
east by Tuesday as low pressure develops to the west of the area and
a frontal boundary stays south of the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 910 PM EDT Thursday...

All remaining Flood Warnings have been cancelled.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ632-634-636>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ633.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...KMC/SW
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...MRD
HYDROLOGY...