942
FXUS61 KAKQ 060021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
821 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure over Quebec will build east to southeast
and become centered across New England by Thursday, slowly
drifting off the coast on Friday. Meanwhile, a trough of low
pressure remains to the lee of the southern Appalachians through
Wednesday, becoming absorbed by low pressure off the southeast
coast late in the week. Temperatures remain below normal, with
increasing moisture and rain chances through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 820 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A few lingering light rain showers/sprinkles this evening.
  Drying out overnight. A few showers possible late tonight
  along the I-85 corridor SW of Richmond.

- Tropical Storm Dexter continues to move east well off the NC
  coast with no direct impacts for the area.

Latest analysis reveals cool 1030+mb Canadian high pressure
over QC/ON, ridging SW down the eastern slope of the Appalachians.
Weak low pressure continues to slide E-NE along a weak coastal
front over NE GA/SE SC this evening. Aloft, a mid-level
shortwave is lifting NE across the region this evening, with a
second disturbance lifting across GA into the western Carolinas
this evening. Offshore, Tropical Storm Dexter is located about
900 miles ENE of the region this evening. Other than increased
surf and threat for rip currents at area beaches, no local
impacts are expected from this system.

Closer to the local area, the synoptic pattern is dominated by
strong high pressure over northern New England and eastern
Canada. Higher pressures have wedged down into the western
Carolinas, with a "cool"-air damming setup extending into our
far W and SW counties. Also, with a diffuse sfc trough lingering
offshore of the Carolinas, continued onshore flow is leading to
cool and cloudy conditions relative to early August. Overrunning
moisture in association with the initial shortwave trough is also
leading to a broad area of light rain or sprinkles that
continues as of this writing over the Eastern Shore. While
rainfall likely won`t amount to much through this evening
(<0.05"), did maintain low PoPs through around midnight on the
Eastern Shore.

Any low rain chances briefly diminish, before a higher coverage
of showers returns after 06z/2 AM ahead of the next shortwave
trough lifting across the region late tonight into Wednesday.
Several successive runs of the HRRR and NSSL suite, showing some
slow- moving showers with moderate to briefly heavy rain late
tonight into Wednesday morning (MUCAPE <500 J/kg). The main
limiting factor is negligible instability. Models show
increasing PWATs (~2") streaming in from the S and forecast
soundings depict deeply saturated profiles. Therefore, cannot
rule out heavier rain across the SW (I-85/US-1 corridor) toward
sunrise and QPF has increased some compared to the previous
forecast. Likely PoPs for the far SW continue after 09z through
over inland sections. Lows tonight should be a few degrees
milder given the widespread cloud cover, but still a touch below
normal (low- mid 60s inland, upper 60s to around 70 F near the
coast).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures continue, coolest towards the
  Piedmont.

- There is some heavy rain potential for southern and southwest
  portions of the area Wednesday, particularly in the morning
  hours.

The strong high pressure system over Quebec builds to >1030 mb
while moving E-SE toward New England and Atlantic Canada
Wednesday into Thursday. An upper trough moves east across the
OH/TN Valley on Wednesday, allowing somewhat deeper moisture to
increase across the region with PWAT values returning back
above normal. This will result in increased humidity and rain
chances. Thunder chances will still be very limited Wednesday
with onshore flow, cloud cover, and limited instability.
Forecast soundings continue to show deeply saturated profiles
and there is some concern for heavy rain and potential
(localized) flash flooding across far southern and SW portions
of our CWA, particularly in the first portion of the day.
Because of this, WPC has expanded the marginal ERO into most of
our area (minus the Eastern Shore), with a new slight ERO just
south of Mecklenburg, Brunswick, and Greensville counties. As
mentioned in the near- term discussion, there remains
uncertainty because of limited instability. Forecast highs
Wednesday range from the mid 70s in the Piedmont to the mid 80s
closer to the coast in NE NC (where there will continue to be
some sunshine). NBM output for high temps decreased a few
degrees across the Piedmont and now aligns with most of the
available guidance. Still, depending on cloud cover and precip,
there is some chance that these areas struggle to reach 70 F.

Moisture continues to pool across the region Wednesday night into
Friday. There is at least some increase in instability across
central/southern VA and NE NC Thursday-Friday with increased
tstm chances. However, not expecting any strong-svr wx. Lows
Wednesday night range from the mid 60s to lower 70s, with highs
Thursday and Friday mainly in the lower 80s. Very similar lows
Thursday night in the 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Below average temperatures persist into the first part of the
  weekend, then trending warmer to near normal with increasing
  humidity Sunday-Monday.

Strong high pressure lingers across the New England coast and
Canadian Maritimes late this week into next weekend. Aloft, an
upper trough will settle across the Southeast as rising height
anomalies develop over eastern Canada. This type of pattern
typically results in some semblance of low pressure off the
Southeast coast, and the latest suite of models continues to
show this. NHC continues with a hatched area for this system
showing a 40% of development through 7 days. Regardless of
tropical development, PW anomalies and rain chances continue
into the weekend, though the highest chances generally remain
confined to the far SE portions of the FA, or to the south of
that across the Carolinas through Saturday. Beyond that, the
models differ with how far N the low pressure system moves, and
therefore uncertainty is rather high, which will keep PoPs
mainly in the chance range next weekend (highest SE). However,
the current trends is for lower rain chances for the weekend and
NBM output has adjusted accordingly. More humid conditions are
also expected Friday into next weekend, with below average high
temperatures and near normal low temperatures. Highs trend to
seasonal normals Sunday- Monday (back into the mid 80s to lower
90s) and potentially above normal beyond Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 820 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals are expected to persist
through tonight. Lingering light rain or sprinkles in the KSBY
vicinity also continue through midnight, but should otherwise
not cause any flight restrictions. NE winds average less than 5
kt this evening and overnight, before again increasing to 5-10
kt after sunrise Wednesday morning. There will also be a better
chance of more widespread showers Wednesday at local terminals,
especially after 15-20z. The chc for thunder is quite low.

Outlook: Rain chances remain elevated through Fri with
scattered showers possible for most of the region. There is a
better chance at seeing some flight restrictions during this
period, especially Thu and Thu night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...

- High Risk for Rip Currents is in effect across all beaches for
today.

- SCA conditions return across all waters by Wednesday afternoon.

Sub-SCA conditions continue today as high pressure ridges down the
coast from the Northeast. Latest obs reflect easterly winds at 5-
10kt and buoys show seas of 3-4ft. These conditions will continue
through tomorrow morning. Weak low pressure then develops somewhere
off the GA/FL coast, an inverted coastal along with it. That will
tighten up the pressure gradient and allow the wind to start ramping
up again. NE winds pick up to 10-15kt by the afternoon, and seas
increase to 4-5ft by the evening.

Moving into the late week period, conditions will be shaped by how
much the offshore low develops and how far north it progresses. Will
note that the NHC does have the area off the SE coast highlighted
with a 40% chance of tropical development in the next 7 days (10% in
48hr). Even with the low on the weaker side (which latest guidance
favors), NE winds still look to increase to ~20kt by Thurs morning,
then peak at 20-25kt Thurs afternoon and evening. Elevated onshore
winds likely continue through the end of the week and into start of
the weekend. Seas build to 5-7ft Thurs into Fri. Waves in the upper
bay, upper rivers, and Currituck Sound will be 2-3ft and 3-5ft in
the lower bay.

High rip current risk will remain in place tomorrow due to ongoing
easterly swell from TS Dexter and onshore flow. Rip current risk
likely remains elevated through the end of the week due to
increasing seas and onshore winds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW
NEAR TERM...MAM/SW
SHORT TERM...LKB/SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...MAM/SW
MARINE...AC