305
FXUS61 KAKQ 052342
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
742 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area tonight and drifts offshore
on Sunday. A cold front moves through Monday, bringing
noticeably cooler and drier weather for the remainder of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly clear skies expected this evening but some low clouds
  linger near the coast across southeast VA and northeast NC

- Some patchy fog/stratus is possible tonight, mainly across
  inland VA into northeast NC.

The surface cold front has moved south of the area, with high
pressure beginning to build from the northwest. Dry conditions
tonight with skies clearing out and temperatures dropping back
into the 50s, a few of the typically cooler spots of the
northern Piedmont may drop into the upper 40s. Some of the
guidance is also hinting at a fog or low stratus potential
before sunrise, especially across southern VA/northeast NC as
well as across the MD Eastern Shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Warm again Sunday with mostly sunny skies.

- One last warm day Monday, before a strong and mainly dry cold
front moves through.

High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern for Sunday,
leading to a dry day with mostly sunny skies. Southerly winds will
allow for temperatures to once again climb up into the upper 70s to
around 80 for highs. Despite it being warm, dew points in the upper
50s will keep the air feeling comfortable. A stronger cold front
begins to approach the region Sunday night, with southerly flow
continuing out ahead of it. Low temperatures drop back into the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

A potent upper trough (and embedded upper low) will advance through
SE Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity Sunday night and Monday. The
leading shortwave will push a cold front through the area Monday
afternoon. While a mainly dry FROPA is expected, the GFS, and to a
less extent the ECMWF and NAM, are still showing some moisture
pooling along the front in far southern VA and especially NE NC.
While NBM PoPs are below 15%, will continue to force slight chc PoPs
in these areas. Overall, the trough axis (and forcing) well N of the
area and the WNW flow aloft should keep any precip light and
sporadic. Highs Monday range from the low-mid 70s N to upper 70s or
lower 80s S. Again turning cooler/drier Monday night as CAA ensues.
Lows in the 40s are expected in the Piedmont, with upper 40s/lower
50s in the I-95 corridor and on the MD Eastern Shore, and in the mid
50s across the Tidewater and NE NC. This sets the stage for a true
Fall airmass next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Fall arrives with a prolonged period of cool and dry conditions
prevailing through next week.

The sprawling upper low becomes nearly stationary over
Quebec/Ontario and Interior New England Tuesday-Wednesday, with
several shortwaves pivoting around it. This allows for a noticeable
intrusion of a dry, cool airmass and really the first prolonged
period of Fall to the FA. Dry wx is expected through the rest of the
week with mostly sunny skies and mainly clear nights. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal with highs Tuesday-Friday
mainly in the upper 60s-lower 70s, with overnight lows generally
ranging through the 40s inland (and in the 50s to around 60F at the
immediate coast). Would not surprised if some upper 30s across the
typically coldest spots in the Piedmont, but the sfc high still does
not look strong enough for any frost/freeze concerns.

Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Gulf and is forecast to
intensify into a hurricane by Monday morning. Milton then likely
impacts the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday. The trough responsible
for our cooler wx locally will likely capture this feature and push
it well offshore, while also becoming post-tropical. No direct
impacts are expected over our area. A gradual warming trend is
possible by next weekend as the trough departs offshore and a ridge
expands over the eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Saturday...

SCT to BKN MVFR CIGs (~3000 ft) linger across ORF and ECG this
evening, will handle with TEMPO groups. MVFR CIGs should improve
around 03z. Winds are generally out of the NE around 5 kt,
becoming light and variable tonight. Guidance has waffled
between VSBY or CIG restrictions after 06z for SBY but will show
prevailing IFR/LIFR starting at 08z and continuing for an hour
or two after sunrise. Will show MVFR VSBY at PHF and ECG as they
will likely be on the periphery of the fog/stratus that is
expected inland. Generally light NE flow resumes on Sunday.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the remainder
of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure prevails today through Sunday.

- A cold front crosses the coast Monday bringing and elevated
  north wind Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

A weak cold front that crossed the area earlier this morning is now
well south of local waters. High pressure centered over the Great
Lakes is building S as it slides east. Afternoon obs do indicate
that it is a bit gusty over the waters, especially over the bay
where a few gusts around 20kt have been observed. Elsewhere, N/NE
winds are ~10kt with gusts to 15kt. Buoy obs indicate seas are 2-
4ft. Waves are 1-2ft. Expecting diminishing winds overnight as high
pressure continues to expand south. Tomorrow, winds will be
generally onshore at ~5kt in the bay, rivers, and N of Cape Charles
Light over the coastal waters. Winds will be 5-10kt off of VB and
Currituck.

High pressure slides off the coast Sunday night with the wind
becoming SW ~15kt N and 5-10kt S. This will potentially boost seas
to 4-6ft N (highest out near 20nm). A cold front crosses the coast
Monday followed by a decent CAA surge late Monday night into Tuesday
morning as the wind becomes N 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt. A period
of SCA conditions are possible, primarily for the Ches. Bay for
wind, and the ocean for seas up to 5ft (especially S). High pressure
gradually builds N and NW of the region Wednesday into Thursday.
Meanwhile, a tropical low (recently named TS Milton, see NHC for
details) passes well S of the region off the FL Atlantic coast, and
this could result in an enhanced NNE wind and elevated seas due to a
strong pressure gradient between high pressure to the NW and low
pressure well to the S.

Have opted to continue the high rip current risk for Currituck into
tomorrow due to 3-4ft nearshore waves persisting with 10-12s
periods. Elsewhere, a moderate rip risk is in effect with nearshore
waves ~3ft with 10-12s periods. Have opted to go ahead and upgrade
Monday to a high risk for all beaches due to periods ~17 seconds and
nearshore waves around 4ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

River Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Appomattox River
at Mattoax and the Nottoway River at Sebrell where minor
flooding is occurring (Mattoax) or minor flooding is forecast
(Sebrell). Mattoax likely falls out of minor flood later this
evening or tonight.

See water.noaa.gov and FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ for additional
information.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Nuisance to minor tidal flooding in possible late Sunday
  night into Monday along the shores of the middle Chesapeake
  Bay, the tidal Rappahannock, and the southern shore of the
  tidal Potomac.

Tidal anomalies are ~1.0ft above astronomical today. These
departures should persist into Sunday with water levels largely
remaining below advisory criteria. Tidal anomalies are expected
to increase to ~1.5ft above astronomical by late Sunday
night/Monday as a S to SW wind increases ahead of a cold front.
This will bring the potential for nuisance to minor tidal
flooding along the shores of the middle Chesapeake Bay, the
tidal Rappahannock, and the southern shore of the tidal Potomac.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB/RHR
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ/AM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...